Quaker Crunch

Ben is checking out the spreads


Columbia Lions at Pennsylvania Quakers

October 13, 2012

Location: Franklin Field Philadelphia, PA

Kickoff Time: 1:00pm

Gametime Weather Forecast: 57 degrees, sunny

The Spread: Penn is favored by 17 points

Columbia Game Notes 

Penn Game Notes (the Quaker notes list RB Brandon Colavita as the starter, but I believe he is still injured)

HOW TO GET TO THE GAME

DIRECTIONS

FROM THE NEW JERSEY TURNPIKE AND POINTS NORTH:

Take exit 4 of the Turnpike. Take I-295 to the Walt Whitman Bridge. Take I-76 West to the South Street exit (346A). Turn Left onto South Street and proceed to 33rd Street where you will make another right. Franklin Field is located on the right and the Ticket Office is at the top of the driveway in front of the stadium.

FROM THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE AND POINTS WEST:

Take exit 24 (Valley Forge) of the Turnpike. Follow I-76 East to the South Street exit (346A). Turn right on South Street and proceed to 33rd Street. Turn Right onto 33rd Street and proceed to Market street (Past Franklin Field,) and make a left. Franklin Field is located on the right and the Ticket Office is at the top of the driveway in front of the stadium.

FROM POINTS SOUTH:

Follow I-95 North to PA 291 East and follow signs to I-76 West. Take I-76 West to the South Street exit (346A). Turn Left onto South Street and proceed to 33rd Street where you will make another right. Franklin Field is located on the right and the Ticket Office is at the top of the driveway in front of the stadium.

TV/Radio

You can't get free audio and pay-per-view video on SideLion Pass. Jerry Recco and Sal Licata have the call.

The Columbia student station broadcast is on WKCR at 89.9 on your FM dial.

Lead Stories

So continues the Ivy League's most unsuccessful "rivalry." Penn has won the last 15 contests dating back to 1997. Both teams' fans have tremendous disdain for one another and I imagine the players and coaches do too. Even the new regime of Columbia Head Coach Pete Mangurian is probably looking at the Quakers like an old enemy. 

The big news surrounding Penn is whether the Quakers can shake off a rough 1-3 start while clinging to the convenient fact that their one win is the Ivy contest at Dartmouth two weeks ago. After falling back into the pack in 2011, Penn fans are wondering if this group has what it takes to challenge for the title. 

Columbia appears to be at a bottom right now. After a decent defensive showing in the opening win against Marist, the Lions "D" has run into some troubles and the offense never got going to begin with. Columbia detractors and fans alike are openly wondering if this team is somehow worse than it was last year. 

So Penn wants a game that will jump start a title run, while Columbia is looking to stop the bleeding and start showing real improvement on the field, 

Three Keys for Columbia

1) Get the Offense Going!

This has been the #1 key since week 2. And with Penn's uncharacteristically average defense this year, it's not impossible to finally get it done this time. The Quaker defense has been especially generous when it comes to opponent completion percentage this year, which is CU QB Sean Brackett's biggest problem. 

2) Attack the Short Passing Lanes

Penn's improved passing game this season relies on lots of short tosses and hoped-for runs after the catch. The Quakers still aren't very likely to try to burn opponents with deep sideline patterns, etc. The Lions need to harass that area 8-10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage where the passing plays are going to originate.

3) Make Ragone Pay

Penn QB Billy Ragone does what Columbia fans wish Sean Brackett could do: run and gun. So when Ragone decides to run, the Columbia defense must make him pay with clean but hard hits that make him think twice. Letting Ragone get comfortable will be the kiss of death. 

Week 5 Picks

Last week I was a pitiful 2-3 against the spread and 3-2 straight up. My record overall now is 11-10-1 against the spread and 16-6 straight up.

Let's go to this weeks games:

Yale +7 vs. Lafayette

The Leopards have some injuries and Yale is desperate for a win. We STILL don't know if Eli star RB Tyler Varga will be able to play, but it seems like Yale is improving despite that. I actually think the Elis will win this game. 

Brown -6 at Princeton

I must be crazy, because I keep getting burned by picking against the Tigers. But this time, I just like the Bears too much.

Cornell pick 'em over Monmouth

It's a home game for the Big Red and I think they will bounce back.

Sacred Heart +17 at Dartmouth

I think the Big Green will win this game, but it will be closer than a lot of people expect.

Harvard -27 vs. Bucknell

After this game, I expect several Bison players to be lying on the turf whispering "the horror, the horror."

Scouting Penn

The last time Columbia beat Penn, everyone was talking about this play


Both Columbia's and Penn's game notes have been released, but I am having trouble getting access to Penn's two-deep for some reason. I'll check back just to make sure that top Quaker RB Brandon Colavita is still out for this game because of an injury that left him on crutches at the end of the Dartmouth game.

It's been a while since I looked at the history of this series, but it occurred to me the other day that the last time the Lions beat the Quakers, it was also during a period when the Yankees and the Orioles were playing each other in the MLB postseason.  

Of course, barring some rainouts, the Yankee-Oriole series will be OVER by Friday night, but you get the idea.

The 1996 win over Penn, an OT thriller decided by a partially blocked PAT, was a jewel in that 8-2 Columbia season which still stands as the best year for the Lions in many decades. 

Since that win the Quakers have won 15 straight over CU, which is by far the longest Ivy vs. Ivy streak in the league.

I would call seven of the Penn wins blowouts. They are the games from 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2007.

Six were not routs, but very clear wins by better Penn teams. They are the games from 1998, 2000, 2004, 2006, 2009, and 2010.

And there have really only been two games you could call close. They are the games from 2008 and last year's 27-20 last minute Quaker win in New York. 

After 15 years of domination, any shred of respect Penn fans may have had for Columbia has disappeared. Thus the rivalry has become nasty, with bad feeling all around.

So I ask the fans, the players and even the new coaches: Is there a game Columbia could win this win that would bring more satisfaction, happiness and pride to this organization than this Penn game? 

I say the answer is; "not even close."

Here's what the Lions are up against..

Offense

Much of what Penn is doing offensively should very instructive for the Columbia coaches. Most of the QB work is being done by Billy Ragone, who has been been streaky this season. But he was at his absolute best against Dartmouth when he ran and passed the Quakers to victory. Despite some injury issues in Ragone's past and present, Head Coach Al Bagnoli never hesitates for too long when it comes to turning his top QB loose. 

One new reason for that is Bagnoli is getting decent performances from back-up pocket passer Andrew Holland. Holland almost rallied Penn to a win over Lafayette in week one, but a running and gunning Ragone is what Bagnoli wants and that's what he's getting right now. 

The running game has been solid, but will be suspect now with Colavita healthy. Jeff Jack is an excellent runner though, as it Lyle Marsh despite a number of injuries during his career. Add it all up, and Penn still has a very good 150-yard per game rushing attack. 

Penn's steady, high percentage passing attack has been clicking nicely too. The top receiver is Conner Scott with 29 receptions for 353 yards. But his longest reception is for just 29 yards. In fact, the longest reception of the entire season for the Quakers is 43 yards and it was really just a run after the catch by Jeff Jack. Like I said, Penn has a short and steady passing attack.

The Quakers O-line has allowed nine sacks so far this year, which is not great but not terrible.

Defense

Here's where things are a little screwy in Philadelphia. 

Penn's defense has been uncharacteristically average for two years now. The promised improvements over last season's drop in quality have not materialized.

The rush defense, which was an eye-popping strength for the Quakers in 2009 and 2010, is allowing 138 yards on the ground each game. Through the air, Penn allows a non-lethal 211 yards per game, but a closer look at the passing stats yields these facts: opposing teams are completing a healthy 67% completion rate and they're getting a very lethal 8.7 yards per pass! And the secondary has intercepted just two passes so far this season. 

Special Teams

Kicker Connor Loftus has made two short field goals and missed a 43-yarder in just three attempts this season. He's a perfect 9-9 on PAT's. Punter Scott Lopano is one of the best in the Ivies with a 44-yard average. 

Kickoff returns, where we thought we might see freshman supposed sensation Cameron Countryman, has been done by committee this year with the leader being Dexter Davis who has a nice 23 yard per return average. (Countryman does not seem to have hit the field at all this year). Penn's coverage teams may be the best in the league.

Word of Caution

As usual, you have to take a lot of Penn's early season stats with a grain of salt. The tough match-ups against William & Mary and Villanova weren't exactly as brutal as they could have been, but not many Ivy teams would come out of those games looking very solid.

Ivy Power Rankings Week 4

1) Harvard

The Crimson may very well be the best FCS team in America. I say that because I have little doubt Harvard would beat Lehigh handily and the Mountain Hawks are ranked 10th in the FCS. Saturday's destruction of Cornell was stunning, especially when you consider how they pulled away in the fourth quarter.

2) Brown

Looking better and better, not just because of the scrappy way the Bears have won the last two weeks, but also because their two-TD loss to Harvard doesn't look so bad right now.

3) Cornell

Still a great offense and fun to watch, but the collapse at Harvard made it clear that this is just not a championship team.

4) Dartmouth

Finally got over a tremendous hump by whipping Yale Saturday. Could jump as high as #2 in the next couple of weeks.

5) Princeton

Could I have very unwisely underrated the Tigers? They're almost making me a believer after that whipping of Lafayette in Easton Saturday night.

6) Penn

It's possible the worst is over for the Quakers and they'll start their usual march to at least the top 3 in the next few weeks. But for now, Penn just doesn't look right.

7) Yale

Looking weaker by the week, and the possible loss of Tyler Varga due to NCAA rules would slam them down further.

8) Columbia

The Lions just aren't showing the ability to score. Can't win if you don't score points. 

Stalled Transmission

Square peg/round hole


Lehigh 35 Columbia 14


Why Lehigh Won

The Mountain Hawks jumped out to a 14-0 lead thanks to a good combination of stellar execution on their part and early miscues by the Lions. Lehigh QB Michael Colvin controlled the game with four TD passes and overcame an early mistake to guide his team to victory.


Why Columbia Lost

For the fourth straight game, the Lions offense was never able to move consistently, scoring only on a one-play drive off a nice run by RB Marcorus Garrett. Columbia's defense was good but not good enough, allowing wide open receivers to slip past the defense on two Mountain Hawk TD's.


Key Turning Points 

-Lehigh took early control of the game with an impressive 75-yard TD drive to open the contest. On that drive, the Mountain Hawks faced just one 3rd down. Needing seven yards from his 41 yard line for a first, Colvin found WR Sergio Fernandez-Soto for eight yards and the drive was alive.

-Columbia appeared like it might answer right back, getting a 1st down at the Mountain Hawk 24. But QB Sean Brackett was intercepted  and it was returned all the way back to the CU 30. Two plays later, it was 14-0.

-After a Zach Olinger pick six made it 14-7, Columbia failed to get even one first down on its next two possessions. Lehigh finally took advantage of the Lions offensive ineptitude and scored a late first half TD to make it 21-7 at the break.


Columbia Positives

-Not many, but there were sufficient running holes for Garrett and the special teams play was much improved overall.


Columbia Negatives

-The main problem remains the punchless offense, which cannot sustain drives. Through four games, Columbia has just one sustained TD drive, (the opening drive in the 2nd half vs. Marist). If this keeps up, the Lions will not win another game this season.

-Brackett's passes are still not accurate enough to move the team. He did run a few more times yesterday with decent success, but it's clear he's under orders not to.

-The Lion defense is generally improved, but receivers are still getting wide open for big plays.

Lion MVP

Zach Olinger was pulled from the game early because of a big shot he took to the neck on a tackle in the 3rd quarter. But he still led the team in tackles and showed heads up play on his easy-looking pick six.

But it's going to be a co-MVP award this week because Marcorus Garrett was brilliant as well. Hos 26-yard scamper for a TD was beautiful and he averaged 4.8 yards on 17 carries for 81 yards and did not suffer even one run for a loss. For the season, Garrett is still on pace to become Columbia's second-ever 1,000 yard rusher. He has a total of 435 yard this year through four games.

Lessons Learned?

Head Coach Pete Mangurian deserves plenty of time to turn this around, but after four straight weeks of offensive failures, the "we won't change anything until the guys do it right" mantra will start to be his undoing if he's not careful.

Sometimes players fail at executing certain plays and schemes because they don't match those players' exact abilities. Forcing a square peg through the round hole never works.

Now let me make it clear that I realize that Mangurian is the coach and I stand by the above statement about giving him more time to get things done.

Now, let's all picture how great we'll all feel if the Lions can somehow beat Penn next Saturday.

That's going to be my "happy place" thought for the next six days before I hit the road for Franklin Field.