Final Exam

Brown Bears at Columbia Lions

November 20, 2015

Kickoff: 7:30pm

Robert K. Kraft Field at Wien Stadium

Game Time Weather: 47 degrees, clear

The Spread: Brown is favored by three points

TV/Radio: The game is on national TV on the NBC Sports Network. But special recognition goes to Jerry Recco, who tonight will be calling his 100th game as the Columbia Football play-by-play man. I was Jerry's color guy for 30 of those games, and he is absolutely a master at his craft and a great person too. 

Leading Story Lines

1) Last Impressions

Everyone agrees the Lions are much improved, but after last week's very bitter loss at Cornell it definitely feels like the team needs a big boost going into that 300-day off season. A win here would provide a tremendous boost for the program going forward.

2) Last Impressions II

The 20 seniors playing their last games, especially impact players like RB Cameron Molina, DL's Niko Padilla, Chad Washington, Toba Akinleye, Hunter Little, JD Hurt, DB Travis Reim, OL Billy Lawrence and TE Nick Durham have one last chance to add a flourish to their time at Columbia. These guys have endured more rough times than most Lion football players over the decades, and that's saying a lot.

3) Look to the Future?

The last game of the season is often a time for some younger players to get some experience under their belts. I'm not expecting too much of a youth movement tonight, but you never know.

5 Columbia Players to Watch

-Junior LB Chris Conway #37. I expect Brown to try to open up the passing game with several QB runs to the outside by Kyle Moreno. Conway will be one of the guys most responsible for cutting him off.

-Senior RB Cameron Molina #31. Molina's career day last week could be just a warmup for the Bears and their questionable run defense.

-Senior DL Chad Washington #4. He, Padilla, Little, and Akinleye all have a lot to play for tonight, but I think Washington is the guy Brown will least be able to handle.

-Sophomore QB Anders Hill #12. With senior QB Skyler Mornhinweg battling some injuries, Hill might get a lot more time and more chances to burn the Bear defense with his feet.

-Senior DB Matt Cahal #20. Brown is going to go after him in the air, period. He better be ready.

5 Brown Players to Watch

-Junior QB Kyle Moreno #13. Moreno is a solid runner and he should get more time tonight as the passing of starter Marcus Fuller is sometimes shaky.

-Senior WR Troy Doles #82. He's a dangerous receiver in his final game for the Bears and it's on national TV. Look out!

-Senior DB Zachary Gillen #21. No matter what the CU offense tries, Gillen will be a key man to stop the pass and a running QB attack.

-Freshman DT Zach Genaway #90. A rarity in this league: a big freshman defensive tackle who is a rising star. If Columbia can get him out of the way, the running game will work. If not, oy.

-Junior WR Alex Jette #7. Jette can kille you as a receiver and as a returner.

Final Week Picks

Well, it was a bad week all around for me last week as I went 2-3 straight up and 2-3 against the spread. I am now 44-19 straight up and 29-34 ATS.

Onward, one last time in 2015:


Princeton +14 at Dartmouth

The Big Green win, but huge blowouts are a thing of the past for a banged up Dalyn Williams and company.

Penn -25 vs. Cornell

Cornell may have won last week, but they're weaker than I thought they were. A team with a potent offense like Penn will massacre the Big Red.

Yale +13 vs. Harvard

Yale has enough players back to make this close, but that's all. Harvard is fading at a bad time.

Georgetown +9 at Holy Cross

The Hoyas will suffer another close loss.


Sacred Heart -14 vs. Wagner

Wagner isn't going to make it two in a row.

Scouting Brown: 10 things

Welcome to the post I've been dreading all season long.

I've been dreading posting my thoughts about Brown because they're a very hard team to figure out over the past two years. And since unconfirmed injuries play a huge role in their fate, it's even harder to get a handle of the Bears right now.

Throw in one more wrench: Brown Head Coach Phil Estes likes to start many non-first team seniors for a series or two in the final game of the season even at some crucial positions.

Okay, enough whining. Here's what you need to know about Brown to watch this game in an informed way:


1) They lose the ball... a lot

Brown's turnover ratio is a galling minus-16. That includes 16 lost fumbles and 16 interceptions. This is a big reason why the Bears are giving up the most points per game in the Ivies. It's also why the potent offense with lots of good individual stats doesn't score as many points as it should and doesn't lead in overall time of possession.


2) The QB situation is unsettled

No one denies senior QB Marcus Fuller is talented, but he's not protecting the ball very well as evidenced by his 13 interceptions. He's been pulled from some games, and not just to protect him from injury. Junior Kyle Moreno has not been the answer in relief. Fuller can burn you, but he's never that much of a net positive.


3) The RB situation is all over the place

Lots of guys run the ball for the Bears. Junior Johnny Pena and senior Seth Rosenbauer, (who came to Brown as one of those "highly touted" QB's), do most of the job. Neither have been super effective. Senior Andrew Coke, who probably is the most talented back on the team, appears to be injured and out for this game.


4) These wide receivers are awesome

Now for the bad news for Brown's opponents: the wide receiver trio of senior Troy Doles, junior Alex Jette, and senior Brian Strachan are all big time players with heady stats. Doles is the deep threat who also has the most TD's in the group at six.


5) The O-line is protecting the QB's pretty well

The Bear front five is light and has trouble run blocking, but they've only allowed nine sacks all season.

6) The defense gives up a lot of yards on the ground

Brown gives up more than 150 yards on the ground per game and 4.4 yards per carry. The Bears have also allowed 17 rushing TD's. In Brown's current three-game losing streak, the Bears have given up an average of about 200 yards rushing per game.

7) Jordan Ferguson is a very good DB who can hurt you

Brown has been giving up a lot of passing yards too, but junior Jordan Ferguson is having a strong season with three interceptions, five pass breakups, and even a pair of tackles for a loss and fumble recovery.

8) Kicker Grant Senne seems to get better as the kicks get harder

Senne has missed four PAT's and five chip shot FG's, but he's perfect from 30 yards out and more. Huh?

9) Jette is an extremely dangerous returner

On punts and kickoffs, it's best to kick it away from Alex Jette. He can take it to the house at any time and has.

10) They're winning the battle of the flags

Brown has committed a decent six penalties per game, but opponents are getting flagged nine time per game and for a lot of yards.

Logjams ahead

For the first time since 1982, it seems likely that we will see a three-way tie for the Ivy League football title.

All that needs to happen is a Penn win at home over Cornell, a Dartmouth win at home over Princeton, and a Harvard win over Yale at the Bowl.

All three of those outcomes are rather strongly favored to come to pass. So what's more remarkable are the things that had to happen to get to this point in the first place.

First, Dartmouth had to overcome an 0-10 season just seven years ago and rebuild the program. Even with the improvements overall, it took the recruitment of a once-in-a-generation QB like Dalyn Williams to finally make the Big Green a championship caliber team. And it also took keeping him free of major injuries even though he's played a mobile QB position for four years. The chances of all of those things happening are slim, but Dartmouth pulled it off.

Penn had to shake off the ill effects of two bad seasons in a row and the loss of the great Al Bagnoli as head coach. It also had to shake off a generally poor start to the season, especially the defense. It had to mount an amazing comeback to hold off Princeton two weeks ago. And finally, it had to beat a Harvard team on the road to leap into a tie for the top spot in the league.

Harvard's road to the top again this year is less impressive, but still not easy. The expected starting QB got injured before the season started, a top WR got injured down the stretch, and the early season schedule filled with cupcakes surely did the Crimson no favors.

At the other end of the Ivy spectrum, we could see another three-way tie. That would be for 5th place. If Columbia beats Brown, Penn beats Cornell, and Princeton loses to Dartmouth, CU, Brown and the Tigers will all be 2-5 in the league and in 5th place between Yale in fourth and Cornell in last.

For Columbia, that would be a nice jump from two straight winless years and the 7th place predicted finish for this season.

It's truly shaping up to be one of the most unusual seasons in Ivy football history. For a team that's been on the wrong side of history for so long, Columbia has to be happy with the beginning of a possible trend.

Big Red Faces

Cornell 3 Columbia 0

Why Cornell Won

The Big Red defense did something to discourage Columbia from passing from the get go. And when the Lions did pass, Cornell saw to it that disastrous things often happened. 

Why Columbia Lost

The Lion offense was mistake prone, committing turnovers abs penalties at the most inopportune times. While the running game was strong, the passing game was mysteriously non-existent in a relatively decent weather game. 

Key Turning points 

-After a good 73 yard drive fueled mostly by good Cornell rollout runs, the Big Red hit a 35 yard FG to take a 3-0 lead on their first possession of the game. It was the longest FG of the season for Cornell. No one could have guessed that it would be the only score of the game. 

-With about nine minutes left in the game, the Lions finally mounted their best drive of the game using only running plays. With about four minutes left, it appeared Columbia took the lead with an Anders Hill scamper for a TD. But it was called back on a holding penalty and Columbia missed the subsequent FG attempt that would have tied it. Cornell was then able to run out the clock. 

Colimbia Positives

-RB Cameron Molina put up career numbers with 151 rushing yards. 

-The defense was outstanding, especially after each of Columbia's three turnovers. The Big Red never scored off those turnovers that each gave their offense great field position. Star RB Luke Hagy was held to just 60 yards on 24 carries. 

Columbia Negatives

-5 for 17 passing for 42 yards and two interceptions are not grown up statistics. 

-The mistake disease is getting out of control with the most untimely penalties and turnovers. 

Columbia MVP

Cameron Molina did all he could do to get the Lions a win. He just needed a little more help.