Island Hoping

Columbia Lions at Wagner Seahawks

October 8, 2016

Location: Wagner College Stadium

Kickoff Time: 6:00pm

Game Time Weather Forecast:  Light rain

The Spread: Wagner is favored by 4 1/2 points

Columbia Game Notes

Wagner Game Notes

TV/RADIO

The game video is available online on NEC Front Row. Superior audio commentary from Jerry Recco and Sal Licata is available on the Columbia Audio Network. 

Leading Story Lines


1) Wagner has undergone a seemingly overnight transformation from one of the worst FCS teams in the country to possibly one of the best. The strong stream of transfers and junior college players now eligible are starting to make a very positive impact as evidenced by the Seahawks' 45-20 surprise win over Sacred Heart last week. What looked like Columbia's most winnable game of the season just a few weeks ago, not looks like an uphill climb.


2) Columbia QB Anders Hill is likely to get the start again over Skyler Mornhinweg. Despite falling to Princeton by 35 points last week, Hill played the entire game for the Lions. Will he get all the snaps again, and why does Head Coach Al Bagnoli seem to be ditching the two-QB system?


3) Will a little angry revenge be in the air after the Lions steamrolled Wagner 26-3 in last year's game at Wien Stadium?


Players to Watch

-Columbia QB Anders Hill #12 needs to prove he deserves this starting spot.  

-Wagner RB Matt McKinnon #11 is built like a truck and can accelerate. He had a 150-plus yard performance last week and looks like he's now set to prove he's the premier back in the prorgam. 

-Columbia DT Lord Hyeamang #95. Hyeamang was pushed around in several key moments during the loss to Princeton last week. Now, he needs to prove he can stand up to Wagner RG Titus Richards or risk getting replaced. 

-Wagner LB Santoni Graham #32 was a major D-I prospect who has landed at Wagner and is making an immediate impact this year. I expect him to blitz regularly but also take aim at Columbia's primary receivers. 


If, Then

-If the Wagner team that shredded Sacred Heart last week shows up, looking comfortable with its array of transfers and JUCO additions, then this is going to be a long night for the Light Blue.


-If Hill and the offense can take advantage of Wagner's aggressive defense with screen plays and improvised QB runs, then the Lions could surprise and frustrate the Seahawks.


-If Wagner decides to pass the ball equally or more often than they run, despite they deep and talented running back corps they enjoy, watch for the game to be closer than expected. 

Week Four Picks

I went a decent 3-1 straight up last week and 2-2 against the spread to bring my season totals to 10-6 straight up and also 10-6 ATS.



Stetson +23 1/2 at Brown

Brown will win this one to get back on track, but I don't think the Bears have what it takes to play a full 60 minutes and cover such a big spread.


Dartmouth -19 1/2 at Yale

The Big Green used to have a heck of a time playing well at the Yale Bowl. Not anymore. I like Dartmouth to bounce back from the Penn loss and cover.


Harvard -15 1/2 vs. Cornell

The Big Red's Cinderella act has already lasted a week longer than expected. The good news for Cornell is that even after they lose by more than two TD's at Harvard, they can still have a very successful rest of the season.


Princeton -8 1/2 at Georgetown

The Tigers worked out their kinks against Columbia last week. Now it's full speed ahead.


Central Connecticut +19 1/2 at Penn

The Quakers will win, but there's going to be a bit of a letdown after the big win over Dartmouth.

A Few New Names

Catching up now with the names of a few new commits to join the incoming Columbia football freshmen class in 2017:

First is 6-1 180-pound DB/WR Graham Flinn from Benedictine College Prep HS in Richmond, VA. Flinn will be the first Benedictine grad to come to Columbia football.

Next is 5-10 170-pound WR Emerson Kabus from Florida's Saint Augustine High School. Kabus will be the first Saint Augustine grad to come to Columbia football.

Here is our unofficial and incomplete list of commits for 2017 so far:

1) Josh Bean QB 6-2 200 lbs. Hinsdale HS Hinsdale, IL

2) Seth DeVary OL 6-4 275 lbs. Larue County HS Hodgenville, KY

3) Alexander Filacouris RB 6-1 200 lbs. Half Hollow Hills West HS Dix Hills, NY 

4) Graham Flinn DB/WR 6-1 180 lbs. Benedictine College Prep HS Richmond, VA

5) Tyson Hugee DB 6-0 170 lbs. Springside Chestnut Hill Academy Philadelphia, PA

6) Emerson Kabus WR 5-10 170 lbs. St. Augustine HS St. Augustine, FL

7) Josh Kaminsky DL 6-4 280 lbs. Seton Hall Prep West Orange, NJ

8) Cameron Lipton-Martinez TE/DE 6-5 225 lbs. Montclair HS Montclair, NJ

9) Jake McCurry WR/DB 6-0 180 lbs. Solon HS Solon, OH

10) Carson Powell DB 6-0 190 lbs. Cardinal Newman HS Palm Beach, FL

11) Bailey Rotsky DB/WR Mayfield Heights HS Mayfield Heights, OH

12) Jonathan Rowe OL 6-3 283 lbs. Audrey Kell HS Charlotte, NC

13) Drew Schmid P 6-0 205 lbs. La Jolla Country Day La Jolla, CA  

14) Hank White OL 6-6 250 lbs. Buford HS Buford, GA

15) Ashton Cooper Wilson DE/LB 6-3 230 lbs. Merritt Island HS Merritt Island, FL

16) Peter Wise OL 6-5 290 lbs. Brunswick School Greenwich, CT

Scouting Wagner

Alex Thomson


If you think FCS programs can't turn it around overnight, take a good look at the Wagner University Seahawks.

The weakest team Columbia faced last year is suddenly looking like a bunch of world beaters after routing an impressive Sacred Heart team, 45-20 on Staten Island Saturday night.

It was hard to give Wagner any credit through the first two weeks of their season, since they had only played a D-III team and a NAIA program. Then they were simply the cupcake opponents for Boston College in a 42-10 loss. The Sacred Heart game really changed everything for the Seahawks.

It looks like the biggest jump has come on offense. Wagner has two potent running backs in Matt McKinnon and Denzel Knight. McKinnon is coming off a 157-yard rushing performance against Sacred Heart and has four TD's on the season. Knight added 76 yards in the Sacred Heard game on just four carries and has three TD's on the year.

But QB Alex Thomson may have made the most strides over last year. This season, he's completed 57% of his passes and has just one INT compared to seven TD passes. Against Sacred Heart he was 15-28 for 276 yards, three TD's and no picks.

The offensive line looked iffy after allowing 12 sacks in the first three games, but it held Sacred Heart to no sacks last week,

The receivers have no standout name, a tribute to the QB Thomson who has been effectively spreading his passes around. Senior Andrew Yevchinecz is considered the top WR, but he's only grabbed seven passes so far. TE Ryan Owens, who resembles Princeton's TE Scott Carpenter, may be a much bigger problem for the Lions considering how Carpenter nailed them last week.

On defense, at least before the Sacred Heart game, Wagner looked like it was much better against the pass than the run. Sophomore LB Santoni Graham is a breakout star as he leads the team in tackles and tackles for a loss. But fellow LB Najee Harris is still a force as is the third impact LB, Randall May.

The special teams are mostly very strong. Placekicker James Cooper is 5 of 6 on FG attempts this year and just hit a 52-yarder last week. Punter Bryan Rafano is averaging 40 yards a boot. And Yevchinecz is a very dangerous punt returner.  

Add it all up and throw in the fact that Wagner will certainly want revenge for last years 26-3 loss to the Lions, and you have a tough test for Columbia three nights from now.

Ivy Power Rankings

Now that every Ivy team has had a chance to play an Ivy game, we have a better idea of where the league is:


7. (tie)  Columbia and Yale 

Yale's massive player defections and injury losses, combined with a lack of a solid QB, have led to an even worse than expected 0-3 start to 2016. The Elis are losing their games by an average of 28 points apiece.

Columbia, as we know, has shown some flashes on defense but the blowout loss at home to Princeton seems to have downgraded the Lions chances of showing solid improvement this season.


6. Brown

Brown's comeback win at Bryant and decent showing against Harvard were wiped out by a bad loss to Rhode Island Saturday. This looks like the inconsistent and iffy defensive Bears of 2015.


5. Cornell

The Big Red feels like the hottest team in the league now, but I'm still not convinced they'll still be in the top half of the league at the end of the year. We'll know a lot more about Cornell after this coming weekend's game at Harvard.


4. Dartmouth

The Big Green looked like possibly the best team in the league after the first two weeks, but losing at home to Penn in a game that wasn't all that close takes them down a few pegs. Watch to see how well they bounce back now against lowly Yale.


3. Penn

Penn's big win over Dartmouth in Hanover should start the Quakers on a good run through the soft middle of their schedule. But there are still some questions about the defense.


2. Princeton

The Tigers have perhaps the best overall offense in the league. The defense is still figuring some things out, but it has the tools.


1. Harvard

Most years, you just can't detect any weaknesses in the Crimson until they play Princeton. It looks like that kind of year again.