Changing the Ending

Columbia 9 Dartmouth 7


Why Columbia Won

The Lion defense played its best game of the year, holding Dartmouth to 74 yards rushing, one for 17 on 3rd down conversions, and coming up with just enough on the final drive to keep the Big Green from taking the lead. The offense dominated time of possession by running the ball well and Columbia did not commit a turnover.

Why Dartmouth Lost

The Big Green offense never got much going, waiting for its final drive of the game to get into a groove that also quickly faded. And as the game wore on, the Dartmouth defense started to get worn down by the CU offensive line. Throw in a number of special teams failures, and the Big Green were rolling snake eyes almost all day.

Key Turning Points

-With Dartmouth leading 7-3 early in the 3rd quarter, a Big Green drive was extended by Columbia's second roughing the punter penalty of the game. But Dartmouth failed to get another 1st down on the the bonus series of downs and an eight-yard Ben Kepley punt gave the Lions the ball at their own 49. The ensuing CU drive included a 20-yard run by freshman QB Hunter Petlansky on 4th and one from the Big Green 31. Ultimately, the Lions settled for a FG and cut the Dartmouth lead to 7-6.

-Now trailing Columbia by 9-7 with 12:51 left in the 4th quarter, the Big Green began a drive at their own 32 and got down to the Columbia 33 before having to settle for a 50-yard FG attempt with a strong wind at their back. But David Smith's kick sailed wide right and the Lion lead held.

-Dartmouth's final desperate drive of the game began on its own one yard line and just 2:15 left in the 4th. An incredible 23-yard completion from QB Jack Heneghan to Hunter Hagdorn on 4th and 10 from the one got the Big Green going. The drive kept going until Dartmouth reached the CU 30 with 40 seconds to play. But three straight incomplete passes ensued, the third helped by good pass defense by Columbia LB Keith Brady. That forced the desperation 47-yard FG attempt that Smith simply could not get the distance one despite the strong wind in his favor.

Columbia Positives

-The Big Green did not have the best rushing attack in the Ivies coming into this game by far, but it was more than solid in its first five games. The Lion defense shut it down, especially primary RB Ryder Stone who finished with just 22 yards on 11 carries.

-Columbia's offensive line allowed just two sacks, and started to control the game as time went on with its run blocking. The Lions finished with a strong 154 yards rushing.

-Freshman PK Oren Milstein excellent again, missing only one FG attempt into the strong wind. He has now continued an amazing streak where the last 41 straight points scored by the Lions have been scored by freshmen.

Columbia Negatives

-The Lions continue to fail to score TD's when they get into the red zone.

-While the defense played its best game of the year, it still had a few breakdowns in key situations and gave Dartmouth improbable chances to win.

Columbia MVP

The official John Toner Homecoming MVP Award went to Milstein, and there's nothing wrong with that. But this game was won by the defense and the defense was again led by senior LB Gianmarco Rea with his 11 tackles and half a tackle for a loss and a QB hurry. Rea continues to lead the Ivies in tackles and he is my choice for MVP for the second week in a row.

Wet and Wild?

Dartmouth Big Green at Columbia Lions

October 22, 2016

HOMECOMING 2016

Kickoff Time: 1:30pm, (note later start)

Game Time Weather Forecast: 50 degrees, showers, and increasing wind

The Spread: Dartmouth is favored by 12 points 

Columbia Game Notes

Dartmouth Game Notes

TV/RADIO

The game will be broadcast nationally on One World Sports Network. It is available on FIOS, but I'm not sure what other cable providers carry it. Check your local listings/channel guide. Superior audio commentary from Jerry Recco and Sal Licata is available on the Columbia Audio Network. 

Leading Story Lines


1) The weather could either be just a bit uncomfortable, the usual slippery game, or a wind and rain-swept mess. The last time Columbia beat Dartmouth was during a super rain and win storm at Wien Stadium in 2008. But the Big Green were also 0-10 that year.

2) Columbia comes with half a season left to achieve some form of visible improvement over last season. The Lions were a better team in the second half of 2015 and the better play did seem to start in their surprisingly close loss to the Big Green last year. So perhaps this too will be some kind of launching pad game. Meanwhile, Columbia hasn't won a Homecoming game since 2000, and the streak is starting to get noticed even by the younger fans.

3) Dartmouth may be looking for some sort of revenge after that 2015 game was definitely filled with lots of claims of dirty hits, etc. Big Green frustration over either the Lions stellar defensive play or perhaps some accompanying Columbia taunting led to a massive number of personal foul penalties that almost completely stifled Dartmouth's offense in the 13-9 CU loss. Much of the bad blood was between then-Big Green QB Dalyn Williams and the Columbia starting D-line. But many of the main characters in that game, including Williams, have graduated. But I wouldn't be surprised if Williams is on the Dartmouth sideline tomorrow.


Players to Watch


1) Columbia WR Josh Wainwright #13 is back from missing the Penn game due to injury. He could jump start the offense after it was obvious the Lions missed him on the field last week. But will the rain and wind play games with Wainwright's ball security issues?

2) Dartmouth LB Folarin Orimolade #9. "Flo" is a major pass rusher and all-around disruption specialist for the Big Green.

3) Columbia CB Jared Katz #21. With rain and wind likely to cut down on downfield passing, Katz may be called upon to help Columbia seal off the edges on stretched-out running plays outside the numbers. But if the field is too wet to rely on RB's making cuts, Dartmouth may try a super quick passing attack forcing Katz to play much closer to the line of scrimmage and fight through blocks.

4) Dartmouth RB Ryder Stone #32. The Big Green has been using him a little more lightly than I would have expected this season, but this kind of game in the expected rough conditions seems tailor made for him.


If, Then

-If the rain and wind really is a major factor, then both teams will need to get effective running gains from their QB's. Dartmouth's Jack Heneghan has run well this season. Columbia's Anders Hill has run well at times, but has been inconsistent.

-If Columbia's RB Alan Watson has success early on running it in between the tackles like he did against Wagner in the rain, then look for Dartmouth to adjust and force Hill to beat them with short throws.

-If the rainy conditions mess with Heneghan's strong passing yardage averages, look for the game to ride on how well the Dartmouth offensive line controls the line of scrimmage.

Week 6 Picks

I went a strong 4-1 straight up last week and a decent 3-2 against the spread bringing my season totals to 17-9 straight up and also 17-9 ATS.




Yale +9 1/2 vs. Penn (GAME IS TONIGHT)


With heavy rain and wind expected in the Yale Bowl tonight, I don't see this game being a big scoring affair. Yale will thus keep it closer but still lose the Quakers.


Cornell -6 1/2 at Brown

The Big Red just keep coming in every game and Brown is really struggling.


Princeton +7 vs. Harvard

Despite the expected bad weather, I think the Tigers will figure it out offensively and win the game.

Scouting Dartmouth

Flo Orimolade


With all the All Ivy talent that graduated earlier this year for Dartmouth, everyone knew the Big Green would have to succeed this year mostly on grit, guile, and good coaching.

So far, that's exactly what they've done.

Dartmouth comes in to New York this weekend in hopes of spoiling Columbia's 16th straight Homecoming with a 3-2 record, a good defense, and an offense that seems to get the more out of less.

Let's start with the defense. Overall, it's simply good but not great. The pass defense numbers are better than the run defense numbers, with nine sacks and a sub-par 5.7 yards per attempt number for opposing passers. The run defense is not terrible, but it was the biggest reason why the Big Green lost at Yale two weeks ago.

As advertised, LB Folarin "Flo" Orimolade is a major star. He's leading the team with 40 tackles and already has five sacks. DB Lucas Bavaro, son of NY Giants great Mark Bavaro, has made some crucial stops this year and has three pass breakups and two fumble recoveries. Nick Tompkins may be the best D-lineman in his first year as a starter.

The offense has been led by the steady if not spectacular Jack Heneghan who has passing stats Columbia fans would give up a lot for if they were for any Lion QB. One thing that stands out is he's only been sacked four times in five games. In addition to good protection, he's not eating the ball unwisely. His seven picks are a bit of a concern.

Lots of teams claim to run the ball by committee, but Dartmouth really does it. Ryder Stone has the most carries at just 44, fewer than nine per game. Overall, the Green is averaging a nice 4.6 yards per carry and a decent 148 yards per game. Again, the O-line deserves a lot of credit here.

Speaking of spreading it around, five Dartmouth receivers have 10 or more catches on the year. But no one has more than the modest 19 catches and 228 yards than Drew Hunnicutt. Big play receivers the Big Green has had in the past like Ryan McManus or Victor Williams either aren't around this year, or Heneghan just isn't the kind of guy to get it to them. The longest pass play for Dartmouth this season was for 37 yards.

Placekicker David Smith has been very accurate. He's 6 for 7 on FG's and a perfect 12-12 on PAT's. But his range doesn't look like it's much longer than 35 yards. Punter Ben Kepley has been excellent.
None of the Dartmouth returners seems dangerous this year.

But the best thing going for the Big Green are the intangibles. You know something is going your way when you block a short FG try to basically ice a win against a team like Towson. You also know things are going your way when the three scholarship teams you play look kind of small when the final gun sounds.

How to make do

Jack Heneghan


If Columbia's coaches and fans are trying to figure out how to win without an All Ivy QB in the backfield, they might want to ask the guys coming into town for Homecoming this Saturday.

No, Dartmouth does not look like it will win the Ivy title again this year. But the Big Green have already won three games and will probably win a few more in no small part because the team has figured out a way to avoid letting weaknesses at quarterback hamstring the whole team.

None of this would be that noticeable if it weren't for the fact that Dartmouth lost a once-in-generation QB in Dalyn Williams to graduation this year. Everyone knew that the Big Green would be dealing with a downgrade under center this year no matter what.

That problem seems to have been made worse when QB heir-apparent Bruce Dixon either didn't recover from a preseason injury or just didn't perform well enough to win the starting job I and so many people expected him to take. Enter Jack Heneghan. Heneghan has taken just about all the snaps at QB this year and has posted some impressive snaps. He's now Dalyn Williams, but he's clearly thriving in this Dartmouth program... until he wasn't thriving like we saw in the game against Towson last week. Either opposing defenses have figured him out or he's just hit a rough patch, but Heneghan's numbers have diminished week to week overall. So what did the Big Green coaches do? They had Heneghan throw more shovel passes and used other tricks to make sure their offense could move even if he wasn't killing it from the pocket.

The result is that Dartmouth has a good shot at going 6-4 in a year that could have easily gone the other way in Hanover. Yes, the defense is playing perhaps the biggest role in that, but how many teams not named "Harvard" in this league have shown an ability to get a winning season when their #1 QB goes down?

Columbia knows it needs better play from the QB position, but it can't always wait for the best talent to come around. Managing what it has and using that the best way possible is the way to win.