Will "Clean Joe Green" become "Supreme Joe Green" this year?
OVERVIEW
Columbia enters this season with its best returning cast of players in decades.
That doesn't mean the Lions didn't lose some key players to graduation and transfer moves.
But coming off a 7-3 season with only one truly poor performance in 2021, this feels like the best returning team Columbia has had since *1996.
*(The 2017 team was also filled with enormous returning talent... but we didn't know it then. In 2016, the Lions were just 3-7 and many of the stars were not known. In 1996, with returning stars like Marcellus Wiley, Rory Wilfork, and Roy Hanks, we knew that team would be a contender).
CU is returning the reigning Ivy Rookie of the Year at QB in Joe Green, who also comes into this season as the Ivy QB with the most starts and wins on his record. It has a returning All Ivy (honorable mention) RB in Ryan Young, an All Ivy (2nd team) LB in Scott Valentas, and -- most overlooked but possibly most important -- a very good offensive line that brings back five starters from over the last two seasons and a sixth player with significant starting experience as well.
It's also returning a coaching staff led by the best Ivy Football coach of the last 30 years (and this is his 30th season coaching in the Ivies, by the way), in Al Bagnoli.
This is Bagnoli's eighth year at Columbia, and seventh season because of COVID.
Does this mean this is a "it's now or never" season for Columbia's 61-year quest to finally win another Ivy title?
Probably not. One reason is because the competition -- most notably Harvard -- is brutal. The other reason is that a number of the top players on this team are due back again next year as well.
But this does feel like a year where you have to at least expect a real competitive run for a championship. The pundits, (most of them), predicting a 5th place finish seem very off base.
The question is: How hungry are these Lions to make them eat their words?
How is Ryan Young still so underrated?
OFFENSE
QB Joe Green was excellent last year, taking a strong leadership role in a short time and rarely making any mistakes.
That mistake-free play was why I dubbed him "Clean Joe Green," and it's a nickname I hope sticks... sort of.
But it was clear from week 3 on that Joe was being a little too clean. Many of us noticed he wasn't being asked to throw the ball as much as his skills and receiving crew should have allowed. But the reins just seemed to stay on him all season long.
Based on Coach Bagnoli's comments at the Ivy Media Day, it's obvious that everyone on the CU coaching staff is now on board with letting the Green train get on the track at full speed. Green has also significantly bulked up in what seems like a good development for his running impact when he can't or shouldn't throw the ball. As it is, he showed plenty of good running instincts last year.
Green will need to stay healthy because no other CU QB on the roster really has any decent experience. Running QB Gabriel Hollingsworth has transferred (apparently to JMU, but he does not appear on the roster), in a move that may have reflected Columbia's likely move to a much more pass-oriented attack. And exciting new freshman QB A.J. Simpkins cannot be expected to be ready to play any significant time at this point.
The good news is the group tasked with protecting Green is not too shabby. That historically veteran offensive line gave up the second fewest sacks in the Ivies in 2021. While that was somewhat the result of the Lions not throwing the ball as much as it could have, it was also clear that Green was very rarely harassed from game to game. If he can get the time to throw the ball deep regularly, that will be a very tough weapon to stop. Remember that Columbia used the bomb to stun the Ivies several times in 2017. And in that season, then-QB Anders Hll rarely had the kind of protection Green has enjoyed so far.
The offensive line is led by Stew Newblatt, who was a team captain last year and played in his very first chance out of the gate as a freshman vs. Central Connecticut in 2018. He's joined by 2021 regular starters Will Hamilton, Matt Klenk, and David Sawyer. Also joining this crew is 2019 regular starter Zach Minch, who started only two games in 2021 because of injury, but may be the best offensive lineman on the team. Also coming back with starting experience is Andrew Pruske who had two starts in 2021.There's also Zach Mills among the two or three other O-linemen who have seen significant time on the field.
Here's a cool number: Lion returning offensive linemen have a combined 71 starts among them.
Oh, and this unit wasn't just the second best in the Ivies in sacks allowed, it also helped Columbia be the number two rushing team in the Ivies.
Oh, and also on this unit is long snapper Parker Lefton... a returning 1st Team All Ivy player at that position!
Getting back to rushing, Columbia got a break when powerful and versatile RB Ryan Young decided not to transfer and will be a 5th year senior this fall. The now graduate-transferred to South Carolina Dante Miller may have gotten more media attention last year, but Young is no slouch and a very dangerous inside runner. He can also catch balls out of the backfield and make you pay for it down the field.
Young will most likely be joined in the backfield by Navy transfer Malcom Terry, who has impressed in camp. Whether Terry will be more of an outside runner to contrast Young's inside running prowess isn't really clear right now. But he will at least help keep defenses from being able to key on Young.
All of this good news threatens to "bury the lead," as we say in the news biz.
That's because the lead very well may be that this wide receiving crew is very, very good.
The budding star from the end of last season, Bryson Canty is turning all heads at training camp and perhaps exceeding all the high expectations surrounding him since last year. He is especially dangerous as a sideline threat.
Canty's abilities should open up light coverage opportunities for the other WR's, specifically Wills Meyer and Marcus Libman. Both had excellent first years for the Lions last year and have improved in the offseason.
There's also returning talent in 5th year senior Ernest Robertson who made some big plays last season.
These are just the headline names; there are others in the WR corps that can make an impact.
And the best part is, they're all comfortable with Green who is the only QB they've all really worked with for any significant time at Columbia.
The only real question mark/weakness is the Tight End crew. Luke Painton showed a great knack for getting open in 2021, but struggled with dropped passes until he became more sure-handed at the end of the year. But it seems the TE option so many other teams use in their passing attacks is not going to be a major feature for the Lions.
This wasn't a bad offense last year. But it didn't score enough red zone TD's and it probably left a lot of other points on the table because it didn't throw the ball enough. This should be an improved unit in 2022. With the graduation losses on defense, it may need to be.
Seth Parker, (wears #7 now, btw), aims to make Manhattan "Parker Island"
DEFENSE
Columbia's defense enters its first season under new Defensive Coordinator Justin Stovall, who has an impressive record as the Lion LB and special teams coach since 2015. It also must deal with tough graduation losses on all three lines of the defense, most notably DB and team leader Ben Mathiasmeier who graduated. Also gone are DL Paul Akere, who has gone to UVA, LB Cam Dillon to Duke, and DB Jordan Colbert to Rhode Island.
But there are strong returning players on all three lines as well. The top name is LB Scott Valentas, who can make a case for being the best LB in the league this year. He is joined by the very talented C.J. Brown on the linebacking crew. The question is: who will win that third starting LB spot? The answer seems to be Sean Reilly, who got into a decent amount of game action last year and has done well in camp.
On the D-line, DE Mitch Moyer and DT Ben Cornielo return after playing extremely well last year. DT Reid Spachman and DE Thomas Thibbault also seemed strong at times, and Thibbault had five starts last season as well. They are joined by sophomore DE Justin Townsend, who has impressed in camp and will be a big part of the DL rotation. Just like it was before the 2021 season, the D-line seems like the biggest question mark on the team. But 2021 turned out to be a great year for that unit, so there are reasons for optimism.
Coming back in the secondary are starters Fa'Arad McCombs and Bryan Bell Anderson. McCombs is a safety and has always been a great weapon. He was missed after he was lost for the season because of an injury against Penn last year. Cornerback Bell Anderson makes up for his lack of height with great coverage skills and a good ability to adjust to the ball.
But moving over to the other corner position is Seth Parker, who has looked spectacular in camp. Against the quality of Columbia’s receiving crew, it’s more than encouraging to see a DB with consistent lockdown ability.
Railan Peace, who got one start at CB last year, also returns. At the other safety spot, look for Aaron Brebnor to crack into the mix and maybe even start. Brebnor impressed on special teams last year and showed serious speed with a willingness to hit. Mason Tomlin, son of Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin, should get more playing time too in the secondary.
I expect this secondary to be tested regularly this fall. Opposing teams will test Parker at their peril. The rest depends on avoiding injuries and depth.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The best news is that powerful placekicker Alex Felkins is back and hopefully will pick up where he left off at the end of last season, which he finished on a hot streak. He still remains a good bet to break some FG distance records for the Lions.
We do lose Drew Schmid as the punter after an excellent career at Columbia. My guess is that senior Andrew Donovan will get the punting job.
The loss of fantastic kick and punt returner Mike Roussos, now a grad transfer at Florida State, is the biggest hole here. Also hurting is the graduation loss of Will Allen, who in addition to his great play as a DB was a top kick returner as well. Whoever replaces them in those roles really has some big shoes to fill. But with the deep bench Columbia has at WR, it seems like there's a good chance another exciting returner is on this squad.
The goal is to get here at 6-1 or 7-0 in week 8
SCHEDULE
I see the best teams in the Ivies this year being Harvard, Princeton, Yale, Dartmouth, and Columbia. By luck of the draw, the Lions get three of those teams at home this year. Under Bagnoli, the Lions have been remarkably balanced at home and on the road. Columbia is 15-15 at home in the Bagnoli era and 14-16 on the road. Nevertheless, it will definitely be helpful to take on those serious opponents at Wien Stadium this year.
As usual the first serious test will come in week three vs. Princeton, which happens to be the home opener and the first day game at home vs. the Tigers since way back in 2016.
An emotional game comes two weeks later, when the Lions seek their first win at Penn since 1996. That's followed by what stacks up to be brutal back-to-back home games vs. Dartmouth and Yale, (with the Yale game on national TV that Friday night).
The dream is for the Lions to come into the week eight game at Harvard with championship stakes on the table. Columbia hasn't beaten the Crimson at Harvard Stadium since 1995, with the 2016 game really the only close loss during that streak. This is a game that could grab some regional attention if the teams are both still in the race.
Columbia seems lucky that both Brown and Cornell continue to be weaker programs and the Lions get to end their seasons against those two teams year after year.
Bagnoli Watch
It feels like it's been too long since I've written about the greatness of Al Bagnoli.
Bagnoli's career record with the Lions is now 29-31, putting him within very easy range of amassing a winning record for a program that hasn't had a head coach with a winning career record in 93 years. Yes... it's been almost a CENTURY since Charles Crowley wrapped up his 42-game head coaching career in 1929 with a 26-16 record. Not even his immediate successor Lou Little had a winning career record with this program. Consider that.
As I've written before, if the Lions win an Ivy title under Bagnoli the alumni should absolutely pay to build a statue of him at the Baker Athletics Complex.
But even amassing a winning record over a (hopefully) more than 70-game career at CU is also simply amazing.
We are witnessing one of the most amazing coaching stories in American sports history before our eyes: a man who could have rested on a fantastic career record but instead came back to take on what may have been the worst sports program in America... and has already succeeded in many ways.
All that eludes him now is a championship here in New York. He now has a team with the talent to do it.
