Monday, November 14, 2022

What a Week!

If you want to relive Columbia's win over Brown and you have ESPN+, you can see the archived game here.

But this is a busy week of excitement ahead for Ivy League Football!

-The biggest source of excitement is that we could get the first ever four-way tie for the Ivy football title. All that needs to happen is for Penn to beat Princeton at Princeton Stadium and Harvard to beat Yale at Harvard Stadium. For the record, my feeling is that what will really happen is that Princeton will win and Yale will not... which means I'm predicting the Tigers will take the title outright. 

-Perhaps even more up in the air are the races for Ivy offensive and defensive player of the year. If you look at the Ivy individual leaders stat page, neither of these awards is going to be an obvious choice as of NOW. Yes, Harvard RB Aidan Bourget is a dominant leader in rushing stats. But if Yale beats Harvard Saturday and QB Nolan Grooms has another monster game, is Grooms not the POY? You get the picture that I suspect that the key stars of the games this Saturday will be in a good position to win the Bushnell awards. 

-Columbia's Scott Valentas, who dominates a lot of the defensive leader boards, should be a strong contender for defensive POY. He should at least be named as a finalist. He was just named as the Ivy League Defensive Player of the Week for the second week in a row. While this Saturday's Columbia-Cornell game will not have championship connotations, how Valentas performs in that game could definitely help his case. I just worry that someone a little less deserving who stars in either the Penn-Princeton or Harvard-Yale game will get undue attention.

-Oh, and it's going to be COLD this weekend. Temps in NYC at game time for the Columbia-Cornell and Penn-Princeton games will be in the 30s, same goes for Cambridge at the Harvard-Yale game, and could be as low as the 20s for the Brown-Dartmouth game in New Hampshire. 

Sunday, November 13, 2022

A Win in Three Acts

Columbia 31 Brown 24 (OT)


Why Columbia Won

The Lion passing game was lethal, led by a career day for starting QB Caden Bell. The defense forced turnovers in bunches, overcame a shaky 2nd half, and then came up big in the third act overtime session to seal the win.

Why Brown Lost

The Bears offense turned the ball over way too many times, and the defense never got on steady enough ground to help. 


Key Turning Points

-After both offenses failed to move the ball throughout most of the 1st quarter, the Lions got  their second turnover of the game just before the end of the quarter when DE Justin Townsend fell on a muffed Brown handoff at the CU 42. Three plays later on 3rd and 8 from their own 44, the Lions got their first 1st down of the game on the last play of the quarter with a 26-yard Bell pass to WR WR Bryson Canty to the Brown 30. On the first play of the 2nd quarter, Bell found Canty again over the middle and into the end zone for a 7-0 lead. 

-The Bears got one 1st down on their ensuing possession, but then had to punt from their 45 and only got a 15-yard boot to the CU 40. On the first play from scrimmage after that punt, RB Joey Giorgi cut free along the road sideline for a 60-yard TD and a 14-0 lead.

-Now leading 21-0 with 6:45 left in the half, a freak deflection of a Bell pass in the middle of the field led to a Brown interception and their possession at the CU 36. Now inserting their third QB of the game onto the field, sophomore Will Jarvis led the Bears on a seven-play TD drive to get Brown back into the equation and down 21-7.

-With the score still 21-7 and under a minute left in the half, Columbia had a chance to snatch the momentum back when LB Scott Valentas got his second interception of the game, but fumbled the ball away during the runback. That negated what would have likely been a CU FG attempt. 

-Now leading by just 21-14, Lion DB Fara'ad McCombs got his second interception of the game on the second play of the 4th quarter to set up the Lions with a 1st and goal at the 10. But Columbia only went backwards and was forced to settle for a 41 yard FG into the winf from PK Alex Felkins and a 24-14 lead. 

-Brown took less than five minutes to answer with a 96-yard TD drive on its ensuing possession to make it 24-21. Then a long drive by the Lions ended with no points on an incomplete pass into the end zone by Bell to a well-covered Canty on 4th and 4 from the Bear 17. It looked like Brown was going to respond with a game winning 83-yard TD drive, but on 2nd and 9 from the Columbia 18 and 30 seconds left, LB CJ Brown tackled Bear RB Allen Smith on a pass play for a two-yard loss, and on the next play, Valentas stopped Smith on another pass play just three yards shy of the 1st down. The Bears had to settle for FG that tied the game and sent it to OT.

-Columbia got the ball first in overtime and needed two clutch plays to take the lead. On 3rd and 11 from the 26, Bell found WR Marcus Libman just inside the numbers for a 17-yard gain. Three plays later on 3rd and goal from the four, Bell waited for Libman to get open and took a hard hit he knew was coming from Brown star LB Junior Gafa and still got the ball into him for the TD.

-On Brown's OT possession, it came down to a 4th and 6 from the 19, and Valentas made a nice play to break up a pass to star Bear WR Wes Rockett to ice the win. 


Columbia Positives

-Bell had a spectacular day, with his one interception not entirely his fault because of the fluky deflection. It's clear he has all the tools to be a top QB in the Ivies. It's up to him now whether next week's game will be his last or if he exercises his COVID 5th year senior option and comes back for 2023. 

-On top of his clutch catch in OT, Libman had a career day highlighted by his 80-yard TD catch, run, and tightrope act along the Brown sideline. The expected lethal nature of both Canty and Libman as dual threat receivers finally came to fruition Saturday. 

-The Lions had their second straight game of solid punting. Punter William Hughes seems to be a big part of the answer.

-Columbia did give up two sacks for minimal yards lost, but the offensive line protected Bell extremely well throughout the day. The run blocking was not as strong, but there were still some great runs on the day as well. 


Columbia Negatives

-The Lions gave up far too many rushing yards and big plays when Brown needed them. 

-Columbia batted a number of passes down at the line again, but did not register a sack.

-Allowing Brown to crawl back into the game after the Lions went ahead 21-0 was bad, but not a disgrace considering Saturday's game trajectory was all too similar to every home game the Bears have played all season. 


Columbia MVP

It's always a good thing when multiple Lions can make a strong case for the MVP nod. Libman, Valentas, Giorgi, and McCombs can all make that case. But in the end, it was QB Caden Bell who did the most to lead Columbia to victory.

Friday, November 11, 2022

The Week After



Columbia will see Brown's new Field Turf for the first time


Columbia Lions (4-4) at Brown Bears (3-5)

November 12, 2022

Kickoff Time: 12:00pm ET (THIS IS THE CORRECT TIME! THE TIME IS THE CU PRESS RELEASE IS WRONG!)

Brown Stadium 

Game Time Weather Forecast: 69 degrees and partly cloudy

The Line: Columbia is favored by 4 1/2 points, the under/over is 54 1/2

TV/RADIO: The game is available on ESPN+

Columbia Game Notes 

Brown Game Notes 


Leading Story Lines

1) Both teams went through emotional extremes last week with Columbia winning a stunning victory at Harvard Stadium and Brown getting destroyed by 52 points at Yale. The team that tempers those emotions the best will have an advantage. 

2) Both teams still have some key milestones left to shoot for. Columbia can still secure a winning season with a win at Brown and then a victory in the 2022 finale at home vs. Cornell. Brown can avoid a losing season and go .500 with a win vs. the Lions and then a victory at Dartmouth. 

3) Both teams will be led by senior QB's inserted into the starting slot because of injuries. Caden Bell seems to be easing into the role as best as can be expected. Brown's Aidan Gilman has shown plenty of skill.  


3 Columbia Players to Watch

1) DB Bryan Bell Anderson will be targeted frequently by Brown's aggressive passing game. How well he responds will make a major difference.

2) Brown's poor run defense will likely have their hands full with RB Ryan Young, who has a different body type and running style than anything the Bears have seen before. Young has had strong games vs. Brown throughout his career.

3) PK Alex Felkins put his name in the transfer portal this week for next year. With the game likely coming down to a FG or PAT, it will be interesting to see how focused he remains.   


3 Brown Players to Watch


1) WR Wes Rockett has one of the best names in the Ivies and he's also one of the best receivers. This could be his last game at home.

2) LB Isaiah Gamble will be a big part of what you'd expect to be Brown's intense efforts to improve defensively after last week's debacle at Yale. 

3) DB Isaiah Reed is the other Isaiah in this defense and he's good at covering the pass and rushing the passer on blitzes.


Thursday, November 10, 2022

Week 9 Picks


I went 5-1 straight up, but just 3-3 against the spread. My season totals are now 40-14 SU (.740), and 26-27-1 (.490) AGS


Princeton -1 1/2 at Yale

This could be the best game of the year in the Ivies. Yale is peaking at the right time, but the Tiger defense will win the day. 


Cornell +6 vs. Dartmouth

The Big Red are really tough and this is their Senior Day at Schoelkopf. I like them to win it. 


Harvard +1 1/2 at Penn

I like the Crimson to bounce back with a win. 


Sacred Heart -15 1/2 at Wagner

Wagner just doesn't inspire confidence.


Marist +2 1/2 vs. Valparaiso

Red Foxes to win. 


Bucknell +4 1/2 at Georgetown 

I like Bucknell to cover, but Georgetown to win. 

Tuesday, November 8, 2022

Ivy Power Rankings

 



1) Princeton 

The Tigers almost stumbled against Dartmouth. But they are still the best team overall.


2) Yale

Elis are on an offensive tear... but can its defense stop the Princeton passing game?


3) Penn

Good bounce back win for the Quakers at Cornell. The matchup this Saturday vs. Harvard should be a good one. 


4) Harvard

The Crimson just barely stay in the first division. 


5) Cornell

The Big Red don't roll over for anyone. 


6) Columbia

Winning at Harvard Stadium is never easy.


7) Dartmouth

If the Big Green defense plays like this the next two weeks, Dartmouth should win both games. 


8) Brown

The Bears got badly embarrassed at the Yale Bowl. But I remember a Columbia team that followed up a 69-0 loss at Harvard with a win at home the following week vs. Cornell. I suspect Brown will be a tough out the next two weeks.