Final Pick Record

In what was my last chance to finish with a winning record against the spread, I eked it out! In the final week of the season, I went 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread last week. 

My season totals were 48-18 SU (.727) and 33-32-1 AGS (.507). 

As We Wait...

While we wait for the All Ivy announcements and the finalists for the Bushnell Cup awards, (I suspect they will come out tomorrow), I wanted to add a few points about the win over Cornell:

-If you have ESPN+ you can see the game archived here 

-Columbia won the last three games to end a season for the first time since 1971. 

-Alex Felkins finished the season a perfect 28-28 on PATs. 

-The remarkable parity in the Columbia-Cornell series now stretches back 34 years, with 17 wins for Columbia and 17 wins for Cornell. 

-The game was the second straight year the teams have have a "color rush," that is when both teams wear their home colors. This is only possible when those home uniforms contrast sharply, as they do with Columbia's blue and Cornell's deep red. Cornell also unveiled a new script "Cornell" logo on their helmets. 

Finishing Strong

Columbia 45 Cornell 22

Why Columbia Won

Columbia's offense was dominant, averaging more than six yards per play, 13 yards per pass, and punting only once. The defense contained Cornell at the most crucial moments, and the special teams played mistake-free football.

Why Cornell Lost

The Big Red defense had no answers for the Lion running or passing attacks and while Cornell won the time of possession battle, they could not turn enough of their long drives into points.

Key Turning Points

-With 5:51 left in the 1st quarter and Columbia leading 7-0, Lion RB Joey Giorgi apparently fumbled the ball away at the Cornell 11 yard line on a questionable call. The Big Red responded with three first downs and got the ball into Lion territory, but then couldn't get a fourth 1st down when DT's Mitch Moyer and Patrick Passalacqua combined to stop Cornell QB Jameson Wang for no gain on a 4th and 1 at the CU 38.

-Columbia then responded with a almost six-minute, 13-play drive that included just one pass and ended with RB Ty'Son Edwards scoring from the one to make it 14-0 and dashing Cornell's early hopes. 

-After the Big Red scored a TD to make it 14-7 at the half, the Lions got the ball first to start the 3rd quarter, facing the same steady wind it saw in the 2nd quarter. Columbia responded with an eight-play, 75-yard drive that again only included one pass. It ended with a two-yard TD run by RB Ryan Young and the Lions were back in full control of the game. 

Columbia Positives

-As the point total would indicate, this was the best game of the season by far for the Lion offense. The offensive line dominated at just about every turn, producing scoring drives even when facing a stiff wind. Three of Columbia's five non-special teams TD's were on drives into the wind.

-QB Caden Bell played close to a perfect game. 

-The defense did not have a perfect game, but played almost perfectly when the score was still somewhat close. 15 of Cornell's 22 points came after the Lions already had a 35-7 2nd half lead.

-It was a perfect day for the Columbia special teams; covering kicks expertly, seeing PK Alex Felkins go 5-5 on PATs (to break a school record for total PATs in a career), and 1-1 on FGs, and getting that rare onside kick return for a TD from Marcus Libman. (Incidentally,  I've only seen an onside kick returned for a TD once before and it was the same part of the field with a similar bounce at Wien Stadium but that time it was by Al Bagnoli's Penn team at homecoming on 2005 against the Lions)

Columbia MVP

This was such an amazing team effort, but the offensive line was just totally in control all day. I have to give the MVP award to the OL as a unit. 

The Respectability Bowl

Two-time defending Ivy Defensive Player of the Week Scott Valentas looks to earn two pieces of hardware 

Cornell Big Red (5-4) vs. Columbia Lions (5-4)

The Empire State Bowl

November 19, 2022

Kickoff Time: 1pm ET

Robert K. Kraft Field at Wien Stadium 

Game Time Weather Forecast: 38 degrees and sunny, winds 5-11 MPH

The Line: Columbia is favored by 6 1/2 points, the under/over is 43 1/2

TV/RADIO: The game is available on ESPN+, featuring Lance Medow and Landon Baty '18

Columbia Game Notes 

Cornell Game Notes 

Leading Story Lines

1) Both teams are fighting to secure an overall winning record, with Cornell looking for its first winning record in 17 years. This remains the most evenly matched Ivy rivalry of the last generation-plus. The last 32 games between these two teams have resulted in 16 wins for Columbia and 16 wins for Cornell. 

2) Is this legendary Head Coach Al Bagnoli's final game? My sources before the season told me he was likely done after this season, but NOW the consensus is he will re-up for at least one more year. Incidentally, the last time we all thought Al was coaching his last game -- in 2014 at Penn -- his Quakers defeated... Cornell. 

3) It's the final game for a number of extraordinary Lion seniors and "COVID super seniors" who have been at CU since 2018. The pregame ceremony honoring the seniors with their families on the field is one of the best Columbia Football traditions and is worth seeing in person. 

3 Columbia Players to Watch

LB Scott Valentas has much riding on this game. A strong performance should give him the edge to win the defensive POY/Bushnell Cup and become the first Columbia player to do that since QB John Witkowski in 1983. So, Valentas can get his hands on the Empire State Bowl Cup Saturday and then his hands on a Bushnell Cup in a few weeks if he shines in this game. This is also his last game despite the fact he could come back next year because of the 2020 COVID season cancellation. Sources tell me Valentas has secured an excellent job and is not going to lose that opportunity. 

RB Ryan Young is another player appearing in his final game for the Lions after returning for a 5th year. Injuries have cut into his effectiveness this season, but expect him to get more carries at least in the early parts of this Senior Day game. 

LB C.J. Brown may be the player most tasked with stopping Cornell QB Jameson Wang from running too freely throughout the day. Valentas will of course be on that job too, but Brown's skill set and focus on defending the edge seem more of a fit for him vs. Wang. 

3 Cornell Players to Watch

QB Jameson Wang runs as much as he throws and he is the embodiment of a theory I've long had about how just letting your QB take the few yards almost every Ivy defense gives them to run can lead to a respectable offense. Wang is not a Justin Fields-like weapon (though Wang does have one 53-yard run for a TD), he's more of a 5-6 yard per carry guy who can kill you with a thousand small cuts. 

LB Jake Stebbins is Cornell's best defensive player. He could be playing in his final collgiate game.

WR Thomas Glover is Wang's most frequent target. 

Week 10 Picks

 

I went 3-3 straight up and 3-3 against the spread last week. My season totals are now 43-17 SU (.716) and 29-30-1 AGS (.491). So this is my LAST CHANCE in my hopes of finishing above .500 against the oddsmakers. 

Yale -1 1/2 at Harvard

All week, I've been sure I'd pick Harvard to win this game. But today, I'm leaning to Yale to win and cover. 

Penn +10 1/2 at Princeton

Tigers will win, but Penn will make this a game.

Brown +11 1/2 at Dartmouth

This should be a great game, with the Big Green pulling it out late. 

Georgetown +28 1/2 vs. Holy Cross

The Crusaders will win this one and reluctantly take their foot off the gas in the second half to win by 24 or so. 

Bucknell -7 vs. Marist

The Bison are pretty awful, but they should be able to cover vs. the Red Foxes at home. 

Duquesne -20 1/2 vs. Wagner

I like the Dukes to cover here. We gotta keep Wagner on the CU schedule!