Marcorus Garrett
I admit that no one is more responsible for all the Brett Nottingham hype than I am... and I hope I won't need to apologize for that as I think he will turn out to be a star QB in this league.
But that doesn't mean I rule out the possibility that the 2013 Columbia season could end up belonging to another player or two poised to have breakout seasons and carry this team to the next level.
Here are my top 5 contenders and what kinds of stats they'd need to grab the headlines:
1) Marcorus Garrett
-Garrett already had his breakout season last year by coming darn close to rushing for 1,000 yards behind a weak O-line and on a team that was still sub-par. Now, #23 has stepped things up by pushing himself to new heights in his offseason weight training.
Just getting to 1,000 yards alone probably won't be enough for Garrett to push the Lions past the three or four win mark. But I see 1,200 as a magic number because that would be a more likely sign that he's getting about 25 carries a game.
Another magic number would be at least 10 rushing TD's, doubling his total from last season. It sounds cliche, but opposing teams should know that Garrett is going to score at some point in every game and the best they can do is to contain him after that.
I also think Garrett could be a lot more dangerous this year coming out of the backfield as a receiver. He only had 22 receptions in 2012, but he many of them really count. If the receivers and tight ends do their jobs this year and draw adequate coverage, Garrett should be able to get open much more after he makes an initial block or move at the line. I'd like to see him get 40+ receptions with five or more TD's in 2013.
2) Hamilton Garner
Top notch tight ends are almost always a new starting QB's best friend. ASnd since Columbia will have a new starting QB no matter what, Garner has a chance to post a major upgrade to his 2012 season this fall.
A dominant year for Garner would mean doubling his 2012 reception total to 50+ and coming close to or achieving the 10 TD reception level.
It doesn't mean that Garner won't be a major contributor if he falls short of those numbers, but to be a dominant cog in a successful season that's where Garner is going to need to be.
3) Seyi Adebayo
Columbia may actually flat out NEED a breakout year from Adebayo if Chad Washington is unable to play this fall.
Adebayo is a complete x-factor after missing 8+ games last year with an ACL tear. Physically, he's more than 100% back. But he needs to get some serious numbers to shore up a D-line that is improving but still faces a major challenge without the graduated Josh Martin.
For Adebayo to be the game changer this fall, he needs to hit the 40-tackle, 10-sack neighborhood and put in monster minutes doing it.
4) Zach Olinger
Without as much experienced talent playing beside him at linebacker, Olinger is another already great player who absolutely MUST pick up his game this fall if the Lions are going to have any chance to win four or more games.
Olinger will need to get into the 100 tackle territory, and net more than 10 tackles for a loss. He'll also need to break up more than five or six passes in total.
If Olinger isn't a shoo-in 1st Team All Ivy LB at the end of the year, then this will not be a 5-5 team this fall. Simple as that.
5) Connor Nelligan
Nelligan can actually put up all the same numbers he did in 2012 and still be dominant in 2013... with one exception: TD's. Nelligan MUST get some scores this season to make the impact Columbia needs him to make in 2013.
It's truly amazing that Nelligan had 62 receptions for 636 yards last season, many of them in crucial, clutch situations... and STILL did not score ONE TD for the whole year.
I think he needs to get five scores minimum this fall, period.
Honorable Mentions/Dark Horses
Travis Reim can be the superstar if he gets more pick-offs and pass breakup stats.
Marquel Carter could surprise if he becomes more a tackling force and helps shore up the fresh linebacking corps from his safety position.
Niko Padilla has the chance to make a major difference because impact-level defensive tackles in the Ivies are almost as rare as unicorns. If he gets into 30-tackle, 10-TFL territory, watch out.
Isaiah Gross still may be the best deep threat Columbia has at WR and his off the radar for a lot of teams because he missed just about all of 2012 to injury. This guy is dangerous and even if he only grabs 30 or so passes, it's likely he'll average a lot more than 15 yards per catch. That would be a game-changer for CU.
8 comments:
Jake, we all have our opinions ... personally, I believe they'll continue to use Nelligan as a possession reciever more so than a deep threat ... the target deep I agree will most probably be Gross ... I also believe Connors will also be a deep threat (and somewhat into the season, don't be surprised to see incoming freshman Denzel Hill) ... and I'd like to point out regarding your comment about a weak O-line, Garrett did run for 900+ yds .... how did that happen if he didn't get adequate blocking at the line of scrimmage .... your comment about the O-line definitely applies to pass protection ... that skill is not easy for a freshman or sophmore experience ... they'll be better with a year under their belts ....
Also, the Dartmouth football blog reported that The Sports Network thinks Penn and Harvard are still the teams to beat with Brown as an outside shot ... Princeton is on the rise and Cornell has Jeff Matthews ... Dartmouth, Yale and Columbia don't seem to be on their radar ... maybe that's a good thing for us ... we may surprise a few teams ...
Gross is no longer a sleeper but a serious threat. If he's recovered from the injury, he'll make some headlines, highlight films.
We have two outstanding kickers in Paul Delaney and Luke Eddy who are likely to be the most important players on the field for this Columbia team at many crucial times this fall.
Jake, you have come up with a great list, but I would add Chris Connors, Wells Childress and Jake Wanamaker to that list. Also, if we are going to be successful this fall, we will need at least one or two of the men on the offensive line to emerge as stars. All five of our projected starters have a chance to become the "Man."
Outstanding kickers is a stretch... They haven't really been game changers since they've been here...
One of the new kids from Texas had around 40 KDPs in his last two years
of HS. Hope he can carry that over to CU, if he gets playing time.
What's a KDP, if you please?
Knocked-down-passes
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