The bar is set pretty low
Being the head coach of Columbia football would really be a
dream job... if the job were starting this season.
That’s because the “comps” from last year are so easy to
beat.
Here is the link to the 2013 stats, I suggest you study them well.
But the key stats are these: The won-lost record was 0-10. The
points per game average was 7.3. The points allowed per game average was 40.2.
The rushing yards allowed per game was 243.
It would be very, very hard to do worse than that in 2014.
So, with Pete Mangurian miraculously
and inexplicable returning for another chance this season, everyone has to
expect that there will be some statistical improvement this fall.
Of course, the trouble is, Mangurian has been here going on
three years now, so improvements over last year’s debacle have to be kept in context.
But what are the numbers the Lions need to reach this fall
for the staff, players and fans to really gain some level of confidence?
I’m going to throw out some very modest numbers and then
show how not-so-modest they really are when you consider how much of a
percentage jump they would require.
Goal #1: At Least
Three Wins (% change: n/a)
Anything worse than 3-7 would still be an embarrassment
despite last year’s 0-10 record. The trouble is that I don’t see which game Columbia
has a good chance to win at this point, let alone three. Gun-to-my-head I’d say
our best chance to win is the week nine game at home vs. Cornell. Other than
that, I just don’t see a great chance.
Goal #2: At Least 15 Points
Scored Per Game (% change: +119%)
That’s right, to get to just a measly 15 points per game
average, the Lions would have to enjoy a 119% increase in point production. That’s
probably an unprecedented percentage gain in Ivy history. A massive 50% gain in
points scored would still leave CU short of averaging 10 points per Saturday.
Goal #3: Keep
Opposing Teams Below 175 Yards Rushing Per Game (% change: -28%)
This is the most attainable goal for 2014, but remember that
allowing 175 yards per game on the ground is still a monstrous stat.
Goal #4: Hold
Opposing Teams to under 450 yards Per Game on Offense (% change: -12.4%)
This is also doable, but nothing to be too proud of even if
it’s achieved.
Goal #5: Complete at
Least 45% of Passes (% change: +10.2%)
The best way for the Lions to avoid furious bone crushing
pass rushes would be to complete more passes and get more of the potential blitzers
to drop back into coverage. CU didn’t even complete 41% of their passes last
season and a 45% completion rate would still be horrific. But jumping 10% or
more is rough in this category, and it would be impressive to get there.
These are the “comps” we need to see set this fall. And we
all need to be results oriented and results specific when we talk about this
team. I’m more than a little disturbed by the fact that the word “wins” never
seems to escape Mangurian’s lips or appear on the digital pages of the official
athletic department website.
But we we’re way beyond happy talk. These real goals need to
be met in 2014. If not… well, Mangurian will still probably get a contract
extension but we’ll all know that no real improvement occurred to make such a
move worthwhile.
8 comments:
I'd like to think they have a chance against Albany. Having them on the sched instead of Lehigh or Lafayatte or even Bucknell is a good move. Now they just need to add Georgetown and drop Fordham.
Problem is Albany struggled badly last season. They play in a tough conference and have not won a lot lately. They have a lot of pride as a program having had a well respected, long standing coach who retired a season ago. They will see the Columbia game as a must win and I expect they will play like it.
Jake, thanks for a thoughtful and informative post. Just the facts! These are certainly reasonable goals -- and attainable, we hope.
Mitch S '68CC
If Nottingham can stay on his feet, a huge if, then we can score some points. And Niko Padilla (37 reps at 225 pounds) will be one of the best defenders in the league this year.
The two new posts today have depressed me...not that I was ecstatic before. Fordham is clearly going to kill us. I can remember when they were more pathetic than us not long ago. Aha! Their new president made football a priority. That does help, doesn't it? Don't worry, we'll get there too--I heard Bollinger just made bird watching a priority.
And Old Lion says, correctly we ought to stop playing Fordham. But who will replace them, the Marist girls' team? Or their nuns' retirement-home team? Maybe not...those old nuns are tough.
It comes down to scheduling. It's not so easy to find opponents with a date free. I would like to see Georgetown a regular foe. Marist is a good one too. Even Bucknell who they used to play. I would say Stony Brook & Colgate but those programs are very good. Holy Cross seems to have waned lately but I would still avoid them. Maybe go down south and play lowly Davidson.
Alswingman, if the plan is to play the weakest teams, why even bother to run a program? Unless you do want to play the nuns. We might steal a win there and save Pete's job.
Fordham used to be weak and look what they did. The weakest teams right now are the appropriate competition. It's not so simple to just schedule an opponent. It is done sometimes 2 years in advance and by then, who knows what could be different.
It has to start somewhere (even though the same statement could be said for the every season).
Wagner has Gtown though they have the luxury of scheduling a late August game.
Wagner is pretty good. I would rather CU puts them back on and drops Fordham. The season Columbia dropped Wagner, Wagner could not find an opponent to replace that weekend so they ended up AT Syracuse getting demolished by over 50 in the Carrier Dome.
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