Niko needs a hand
STATE OF THE PROGRAM
After working more than 25 years to erase the stigma of the
infamous 44-game losing streak of 1983-88, Columbia fell right back into the
abyss last year and fielded a team that looked every bit as bad as the worst
Lion products of 30 years ago.
Some of this catastrophic result was predictable as Head
Coach Pete Mangurian’s disastrous
strategies and philosophies gutted the offensive line, arguably the most vital
unit on any football team. This, despite the fact that those same strategies
and philosophies cost Mangurian jobs elsewhere in his career.
Meanwhile Mangurian, who personally called Robert Kraft in 2012 to claim that
previous Head Coach Norries Wilson
left him with the “cupboard bare,” has little to show for his time at Columbia
despite the fact that the Wilson regime now has two players in the NFL, and a player who has transferred and is getting
significant impact playing time at Boston College.
It was also predictable that the Lions would suffer the loss
of former Defensive Coordinator Kevin
Lempa. Hiring the experienced and respected Lempa remains Mangurian’s best
success as an employer, but he couldn’t keep him longer than one season.
Predictably, the Columbia defense suffered under the experienced but less
respected and less effective Chris
Rippon. Naturally, Rippon is sticking around.
It was predictable that Mangurian’s and Offensive
Coordinator Jaime Elizondo’s strict
drop back passing offense system would fail without a decent offensive line to
anchor it. It’s notable that not even the talent-rich Harvard program feels
confident enough about its O-line to feature such a system. The novices at
Columbia think they know better. They don’t.
What wasn’t predictable, and is just as disappointing as the
poor on-the-field performances, is the breakdown in team discipline and conduct
off the field.
Last year’s Twitter scandal and the now-departed Chad Washington’s assault arrest were
embarrassing enough, but since then several players became entangled in a brawl
outside a local bar and others have been caught cheating.
These kinds of incidents happen at Columbia and all the Ivy
schools from time to time, but this is an unprecedented avalanche of misconduct
coming almost all at once.
How Mangurian has survived these inexcusable failures with
his job still intact is a testament to the extremely low bar the leading alumni
maintain for football at Columbia and athletics in general. It’s also a
testament to just how much now-outgoing Athletic Director Dianne Murphy has been willing to protect her hiring of Mangurian
and the dishonest process that produced it.
For alumni, the frosty reception they get from the department
continues, exemplified most egregiously by the lack of decent recognition of
the untimely death of star running back Solomon
Johnson ’92. It was left to fans working on their own and with help from
this blog to raise money to help his surviving young family set up an
educational fund for their children. The shabby treatment the department showed
the Johnsons just before the season started seemed like it induced a Karmic
curse that ended in the same kind of winless season that Johnson’s arrival on the
varsity ensured the end of in 1988.
And yet, more than 90% of the players have stuck with the
team and there are still eager freshmen excited to get the chance to play for
the Lions. Being the #4 ranked school in the country academically, and being
the Alma Mater of the current President of the United States has its benefits.
In the preseason teleconference, Mangurian briefly cited
last year’s tsunami of injuries in week one for starting a process that
spiraled into the 0-10 season. That was only partially true, as the biggest
injury of the season was almost directly his fault.
And yet, Columbia still has significant talent at a number
of positions and the potential to become competitive again with the right
leadership and strategies on the sidelines.
But the bigger threat now is that the talent will once again
be squandered or worse, reinjured, before Columbia can get back into the win
column.
Murphy’s announcement that she is stepping down should
instill a new sense of urgency for Mangurian and his staff and at least force
them to re-examine their strategies.
But honestly, if Mangurian didn’t do the necessary soul
searching after losing jobs in the NFL for the same bad strategies and
philosophies… why does anyone expect him to do it now?
In 11 weeks, despite the culture of losing the
administration basically celebrates, Pete Mangurian will most likely no longer
be an employee of Columbia University.
OFFENSE
Columbia’s offense in 2013 was a lesson in futility.
The Lions scored a grand total of 73 points.
Not just in the seven Ivy games.
That was the total for the whole season.
But that was excusable right? I mean, when prized Stanford
transfer QB Brett Nottingham went
down in week one for the season it was amazing the Lions scored any points at
all after that.
Right?
Wrong.
Because last year, Columbia still had one of its best
running backs of the past 20 years in Marcorus
Garrett. But the loss of Nottingham did not result in a new
Garrett-centered offensive plan. The season just lumbered on with sophomore Trevor McDonagh at QB and then freshman
Kelly Hilinski, (now at JUCO Riverside CC), throwing with
little general success. The receiving corps, also hurt by injuries to Connor Nelligan and Chris Connors, looked inept mostly with a myriad of dropped
passes on a weekly basis.
Inevitably, Garrett was eventually injured and/or suspended
from the field, (we never got a straight answer from the coaches on his
status), and the result was that 73-point disaster.
This season Nottingham is back in an admirable show of
determination that undoubtedly played a role in his election as co-captain of
the team. If anything looks good in the Columbia world right now, it’s
Nottingham with his passes looking sharp and his decision-making stellar.
Another potential bright spot is the receiving crew.
Nelligan is back from injury and looks good, (although he did take a nasty hit
in a preseason scrimmage last week). Connors is back, but not 100% healthy, but
Isaiah Gross returns after missing
all of 2013 for a non-disclosed reason. Don’t forget senior WR Ryan Flannery, who has worked his butt
off and proven to be a very solid receiver. He should get some open looks this
season.
The tight end situation is murky, but I’ve never soured on
tough senior Garrett DeMuth and I
still like junior Nick Durham. For
some reason, it appears Mangurian is not all that excited about either.
But Nottingham still lacks the two things a QB really needs
to survive: a good offensive line and a good running game.
Sure, the CU offensive line will be better than it was last
year. But a fatal error Columbia football fans often make is that they believe
the team is improving when compared to itself. Columbia needs to get better
relative to the OTHER teams and how they will attack them, particularly on the
offensive line. It’s good that experienced players like Marshall Markham, Ryan Thomas, Billy Lawrence, Nathan Gibbs and Kendall
Pace are all expected to start this fall. But the hard truth is that none
of them were all that good last year and there’s only so much improvement you
can achieve in one year. Columbia’s offensive line should consider the season
successful if Nottingham starts more than seven games.
The running backs, led by junior Cameron Molina, senior Augie
Braddock, and sophomore Alan Watson,
all look much weaker than just about any other team in the Ivies. I like what I
see from freshman Chris Shroer, but who knows if the coaches see the same thing
and will give him a chance to start?
This just doesn’t look like a complete offense.
DEFENSE
Big questions plague all three of the key lines on defense,
but junior DT Niko Padilla is the
best proven talent on the team. Good talent at the DT position is still the
hardest thing to find in the Ivies, and Padilla’s got it. But he also faces a
season filled with double and triple teams unless someone else steps up on that
D-line.
Like the O-line, the non-Padilla returnees on the D-line
proved they just weren’t up to the job last season and there’s only so much
improvement you can expect. Plus, with Washington gone the best defensive end
is also out of the picture.
One wildcard is Toba
Akinleye, who is a hybrid DL-LB who both Mangurian and I think has a lot of
upside potential. But he’s been a tough bet so far.
That means a lot is riding on a freshman or two to make an
immediate impact. That’s a bit of a long shot, but possible. Texan DT Collin Breckenridge might fit the bill
and DE Liam Talty might get
something done.
The linebacking corps took a hit with the reports of senior Vinny Pugliese sidelined for a
potential full season with concussion issues. That’s our best LB lost. I
suspect co-captain Ray Pesanello
will step it up a bit, but he can’t do it alone. Kal Prince makes his second position change after starting at CU as
a QB, moving to DB and now to LB. He’s a potential starter, which shows you how
desperate the situation was and is with the existing crew. Meanwhile, Rippon
continues to line the LB’s way too far back from the line of scrimmage for an
unknown reason with disastrous results.
Mangurian has a point when he says the secondary looks
relatively better. Travis Reim and Brock
Kenyon could become an elite pair of safeties in the league this year.
The corners are more iffy, but I think senior Malcom Thaxton is underrated at corner.
The other corner position is more iffy in my book.
The biggest problem with the secondary is the fact that the
first two lines of the defense don’t look strong enough to keep the pressure
off the corners in the passing game and the safeties in the running game. These
DB’s are going to be busy, possibly too busy.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Another big question mark as the Lions replace their
starting kicker and punter.
The good news is that long snapper senior John Keefe will be
back to provide stability in that department. He’s been quite good in that
role.
If excellent DB/Returner Travis Reim remains the primary
kick and punt returner, then that department will also be generally covered but Columbia will
need more help than secondary returner Alan Watson provided last year.
We thought that sophomore Cameron Nizialek would get the nod at both kicker and punter, but freshman
Noah Zgrablich showed an impressive
leg in training camp and now we’re in the dark at least until the two deeps are
released. This is truly a pair of positions where things could get interesting
and creative. The fact that Australia native, rugby player Matthew Panton has walked on to the team says something about how
everyone knows there is a need here. At 6-4 and 220 pounds, Panton would make
an interesting guy to try to take down in a possible fake punting situation.
SCHEDULE
Those of you who read my complete Ivy season preview over
the weekend know that I put a lot of stock in the home-and-away scheduling this
year.
For Columbia that’s less of an issue because we’re talking about
a team that’s just looking for a win this fall.
That said, the fact that the Lions get to host Cornell this
season, a team they haven’t lost to at home since 2004, is very helpful. On the
other hand, having to take on a potentially weak Penn team in Philly is not
helpful and neither is the fact that Brown is also a road game.
The out of conference schedule is brutal, period.
OVERALL
It’s hard to get too excited about the Lions this season.
Even a significant improvement off of last year’s 0-10 debacle would not an
exciting season make. For that, Columbia needs a series of miracles.
But if Nottingham can stay alive, he should be fun to watch
and there’s always a chance a freshman player will change the equation a bit.
The best hope for this season is for a few new players to
emerge who will give the new coach something to build on for 2015.
