The Ivies begin this football season with the league looking more wide open than it has in many years.
There are haves and have nots in the league as usual, but this time the top teams in the Ivies all have more vulnerabilities than usual. That leaves them open to be beaten on almost any given Saturday.
Frankly, I've never had this much predicting a champion. But it still seems like it will come down to Harvard, Penn, or Princeton.
Before Head Coach Bob Surace announced that all-word QB/WR/RB John Lovett was going to "miss some time" this coming season, I was going to choose the Tigers to repeat as champs. But I was still concerned about the massive graduation losses Princeton has suffered on defense and Surace's track record of inconsistency. Princeton hasn't been championship caliber two years in a row at any time since Surace took the helm in 2010.
Penn has a lot to recommend it, and I remain sure the Quakers will be a top three team despite losing their heir apparent starting QB and a 1st Team All Ivy DB both to transfer decisions.
And Harvard, which looked weaker than the Crimson have looked in maybe a decade last season, still has so much talent at every position that it would be easy to choose them to win and forget it.
But after much soul searching, here's how I think it'll shake out. The hint for my thinking is that you have to respect the "Al Bagnoli effect" on this league:
1. Penn
2. Harvard
3. Princeton
4. Columbia
5. Yale
6. Dartmouth
7. Brown
8. Cornell
Penn is filled with major talent, led by WR Justin Watson on offense and Tre Solomon at RB. Yeah, they need to break in a new QB, but one of the contenders for that job is a transfer from Georgia in Nick Robinson. It may take a few weeks, but I think whoever gets the job will be fine enough at Franklin Field.
The defense lost top DB Mason Williams to a head-scratching, (and I think very bad) decision to transfer to Duke. No matter, Penn still has massive talent up and down the lines to make for it.
And I think an intangible here is that this team will be dominated by the last recruiting crop Bagnoli fulling sowed for Penn. There is depth and strength here that most of us won't even see.
Harvard has some real questions about its offensive line and at QB. But it's still Harvard and the talent level on the bench is just too high to ignore. The Crimson should bounce back, thanks to the continued presence of historic talents like WR Justice Shelton-Mosley and DL D.J. Bailey.
Princeton will suffer without Lovett in ways that may exceed worse case scenarios mapped out in the PU coaching offices right now. But he will probably return before mid season and there's plenty of talent on the team otherwise. Just don't be surprised if the Tigers put in a 5-5 record and fall to the middle of the pack.
Columbia has good talent and experience on both sides of the ball and more stability than ever. The out of conference schedule looks more favorable than usual too and will help boost confidence. Finally, Bagnoli's positive effects are starting to show more results.
Yale has decent returning talent on both offensive and defensive lines, plus one of the the best RB's in the league. But the QB position is still a huge question and Heach Coach Tony Reno just does has not proven he can be a championship contender in this league.
Dartmouth has a good QB, a good potential backup QB in an Illinois transfer, and some great receivers. But the RB's are still unproven, (but apparently more talented than most know), and the defense is very young. The Big Green got snakebitten a few times last year and were better than their 1-6 Ivy record. But they're weren't a top four team then and aren't now.
Brown has some good offensive talent, but the Bears seem to be on a secular decline right now and could definitely come in last in the league. This team looks like it's still a year away from contending.
Cornell's QB Dalton Banks is good enough to not need great receivers, and RB Chris Walker is very good too. But neither can be expected to overcome a fire sale situation on the O-line, where there's been massive graduation losses. And the Big Red D is really a weakness.
The biggest potential surprises this season seem like Columbia on the upside and Yale on either the up or downside. Princeton is a bit overrated considering Lovett's loss and Surace's track record of inconsistency.
Penn may be more emotionally unstable with those transfer defections, but this is such a tight program, it's hard to see that getting to them too much.
But again, this is the least confident I've been about a preseason prediction ever. Something different is brewing in the Ivies this season, it's just hard to say exactly what.
2 comments:
I believe we have a very solid shot at these results.
In my prognosticating, I see us winning all 3 non-league games. Why? We are due. Enough close losses. The guys are ready for payback and have the memory, the attitude and the ability to do it.
Re: League. The question is if one of the bottom 4 catch us unaware. We take care of business with them, and we are in line for maybe one upset with the top 3.
Championship? Not realistic. But 5-5? Most doable, and 6-4 not crazy either.
A big if is staying injury free. Last year we lost Wainwright for a few games. He is one of the best WRs I have seen in years and was unstoppable in the Brown game. We also need to keep Anders Hill on his feet and injury free. I know that we lost some terrific LBs to graduation, but the rising sophomores may turn out to be even better. We need somebody to emerge as a pass catching TE. The RB by committee is a Bagnoli staple. I think that we have no glaring weaknesses and the ability to put three points on the board whenever we reach the 30 yard line. So I am not prepared to call any of our games out of reach. I love the fact that we get Penn and Harvard at home this year.
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