Columbia Football Preview 2017

Columbia's 2017 season is firmly in Anders Hill's hands

SUPER CLIFF NOTES VERSION:

The Strengths

The Lions best positives are the offensive line, the wide receivers, and the special teams. Also "better than average" are the defensive line, the secondary, and the starting QB. That’s not a bad set of weapons by Columbia standards and really compared to the whole league, these positives make a good case for the Lions to have a chance to finish in the top half of the Ivies.

The Weaknesses

Columbia doesn’t have weaknesses as much as it has question marks right now. But in Ivy League Football, question marks are where you usually find the problems. Columbia’s biggest question marks are at QB depth, running back, and linebacker inexperience. Any one of them could blow up into a full scale problem with the biggest black swan being if Hill is injured at QB. Unlike the perennial powerhouses like Penn and Harvard, you can’t just assume that the incoming freshmen or this year’s untested sophomores have a 50-50 shot to fill these holes. The good news is that the guy who made Penn generally a reloading power is on our side these days.

NOW FOR THOSE WHO WANT TO DO THE REAL READING

Checking the Returns on the Bagnoli Investment: Year 2

The benefits were obvious during the first year of the extraordinary and courageous choice by Columbia President Lee Bollinger to spend the big bucks and bring Al Bagnoli out of his brief retirement. In 2015, the Lions finally ended the string of two straight 0-10 seasons, won two games, and were competitive in every game but one.

Moving on to year two, the benefits were just as great even if they weren’t immediately clear to everyone. For one thing, the Lions went from two wins to three. Perhaps that improvement in the number of wins wasn’t good enough for some fans, especially since Columbia let very winnable games against St. Francis, Georgetown, Cornell, and to some degree Yale, get away.

Josh Wainright & Family

But there were other super important improvements when you look closer. On the top of the list is that no fewer than five of the Bagnoli staff’s recruits made a significant impact as top players on the team. They were freshmen WR’s Josh Wainwright and Ronald Smith, DL Daniel DeLorenzi, PK Oren Milstein, and sophomore OL Tyler Schonewolf, who was a late pickup for the 2015 incoming freshmen class when Bagnoli first took over. Milstein was the only one of this group to make 1^st Team All Ivy, but the rest were game changers too. All except DeLorenzi were starters. And DeLorenzi was a very effective 3^rd down pass rush specialist who made probably the most important sack for the Lions in 2016 with his take down of Wagner QB Alex Thomson that saved the 15-13 win.

Off the field, the completion and use of the off season practice bubble was another development only Bagnoli and the respect he commands could make happen.

Now comes a crucial year three where the returns on the Bagnoli investment must result in more wins and a few more All Ivy level players showing themselves on the field. Imagine if four or five more guys like Wainwright, Schonewolf, and Milstein emerge this season. Imagine if they don’t.

Here’s what Bagnoli and his staff are facing this fall: 

The Captains: Baty, Hyeamang, Hill, and Wales (pic from the CU Football Twitter account)

A lot’s on Anders

So much of Columbia’s 2017 season rides on the head, shoulders, arm, legs, and every other body part that belongs to QB Anders Hill.

Hill, who we know has the brains as an Academic All Ivy honoree, needs to have a good season. But he absolutely must stay healthy as the rest of the QB depth chart is a major question right now.

The good news is that Hill had a better 2016 season than many could have expected. Remember, he came into 2016 expecting to be the reliever/backup and take maybe 30% of the snaps. But with Skyler Mornhinweg ’17 unable to really recover from injuries, Hill got a trial by fire that in retrospect he handled extremely well. His stats were pretty strong by recent Columbia standards. Hill completed about 54% of his passes, had a 10-8 TD/INT ratio, and he was often a spectacular runner.  Most Ivy teams would be happy to have a returning QB with that kind of experience and skill set coming into his senior year.

Hill’s key problem was taking too many sacks. Most of the 36 sacks CU absorbed last season were not really the offensive line’s fault, and that’s something Hill and Columbia have to reverse this fall. And the good news there is that the coaches are well aware of that problem and have been able to focus heavily on it this off season. And Hill also has the good news of getting a very experienced and talented offensive line to work with as well.

The other good news is Hill has one of the best receiving talent Columbia has enjoyed in years. Josh Wainwright and Ronald Smith were excellent as freshmen and became the top receivers on the team. Their fellow sophomore Christian Everett proved to be another great option.

At least one of the tight ends, Kyle Baskin, Rory Schlageter, Ben Hill and Zach Dansby, are poised to make a much bigger impact in 2017. Remember that the coaches really liked Baskin in training camp last year as a freshman, but he was knocked out of the season in game one. All QB’s really need a solid TE target to rely on. The last time Columbia was truly a competitive team, the stellar Andrew Kennedy ’11, filled that role. The team has struggled without him ever since.

The bad news is that Hill can’t rely on the usual Bagnoli recipe of spending about 25% of each game safely avoiding injury on the sidelines while a relief QB is in the game. With the transfer of Hunter Petlansky, the Lions don’t even have a proven backup who can come in for any snaps at all. It will take some time to find out who will give Hill those breaks.

And who’s going to step up as an effective running back to keep at least some of the heat off Hill and the pass protection unit? The graduation of Alan Watson leaves this position wide open. The most experienced senior RB with good running tools is Chris Schroer. But this feels like a position where there’s going to be a lot of competition in training camp and probably well into the season for the top spot. Sophomore Tanner Thomas got into a good amount of games as a freshman last season and showed some talent for finding the end zone in short yardage situations. Fellow sophomore Lynnard Rose is a great all-around athlete, (he made his way onto the Columbia Baseball team this spring too), who seems like he might be best suited for catching passes out of the backfield. And incoming freshmen Broderick Taylor and Marquavious Moore both look very talented.

Even if Hill stays 100% healthy all season long, Columbia needs to develop a backup and heir-apparent right away. It’s hard to say who the leading candidates are, but we know their general skill sets. Sophomore Matt Dame is the pure passer type with a lot of upside if he can continue bulking up and working on mobility. Junior Ryan Suitt is a more of a runner and has good experience with this staff. Freshman Josh Bean has all the looks of a QB on the rise who is developing at the right time for an Ivy program. Had he had the kind of season as a junior that he had as a senior last year, he might not have been the kind of recruit Columbia could snag. The more established-at-QB freshman is Dillon Davis from Texas, who will be interesting if he can show that he can adapt to Ivy football and life in the big city. Because Hill is a senior, the #2 QB slot is going to be one of the more important blanks to fill this year.

2017 isn’t all about Hill, but it’s mostly about him. If he has an All Ivy 2^nd Team or better type of season, the Lions could enjoy a winning record. If he’s injured or he puts up worse numbers than last year, Columbia will really struggle to match last year’s three win total.

Second Biggest Factor

Columbia is returning its most experienced and talented offensive line since 2009. That was the group led by Jeff Adams and Bob Hauschildt. Yes, the only All Ivy recognized player last year on the O-line was Kendall Pace, and he’s gone to graduation and currently with the Washington Redskins. But a closer look shows that four key starters are back for 2017, including some standouts. RT-turned-LT and Co-Captain Bewley Wales will lead the group as a senior along with his fellow starters last year, junior LG Charlie Flores and junior C Tyler Shonewolf. Also back is senior Markham Pakune, who started the last two games of 2016. Also coming back for 2017 with some actual game action under their belts are senior Ben Robbins, sophomore Parker Coogan, senior Michael McGrath, and senior Reid Stables. McGrath may be atop the depth chart for the open slot right now. And this list doesn’t include some of the talented sophomores who could make a run at getting some playing time this season like Joseph Scowden, John Fischer, and Lamine Nouck-A-Nwal.

And anyone watching the CU offensive line, which was really nowhere before the 2015 season, can see the real improvements that have been made on this unit. The rushing stats prove that. And again, while sacks allowed haven’t improved, Hill’s issues with taking too many sacks makes that problem less of an offensive line responsibility. 

Columbia needs the O-line to play up to its experience in 2017 and pave the way for Hill to have a healthy season and a new running back or two emerge as legitimate offensive weapons. Having this much returning experience in the most key unit on any football team is rare at the Ivy League level. The Lions must take as much advantage of it as possible.

Linebacker Questions

A wise ex-coach told me that you win in football with defense and you get a good defense mostly by recruiting the best linebackers. That makes sense, since a good linebacker can stuff the run, rush the passer, and break up passes. Columbia loses all three of its starting linebackers from 2016, including 1^st Team All Ivy Gianmarco Rea. But this is where the Columbia is hoping to see its most significant recruiting upgrade. Three linebackers showed promise last season in their freshman years: Michael Murphy, Matt Tofano, and Jalen Williams. I think all three will be CU’s starting linebackers this fall, but Bagnoli mentioned that junior Sean White is in the mix too. And there is some significant freshman talent coming in with Justin Woodley. A tough loss is Levi McQuinn, who had enormous talent but has left the team due to nagging injuries.

The scary thing is that none of the people on the team now have started in a college game and they have a big burden to carry. But this could just as very well be a strength on this team. If it does, then a lot of bets are off about this program needing another two or three years before it’s a contender.

The funny thing is that we can expect to hear every Ivy pundit going on and on about how great the linebacking crew was last year and how Columbia is doomed with all three starters graduating. These are the same pundits who didn’t think anything about Columbia but Bagnoli was good a year ago. Sometimes it hurts your perspective to be too close to a program, but being closer to this one gives the fairly objective observer the clarity to see that the linebackers will be okay this year and potentially very good.

Cameron Roane

The D-Line and Secondary: Hidden Gems

Last year there was a big fear that the surprisingly dominant defensive line of 2015 suffered too many graduation losses to stay strong in 2016. But there was only a slight drop off in D-line effectiveness last year and that was thanks to some new blood that will be back and with more size and experience. The unit will still be led by seniors Lord Hyeamang, Dominic Perkovic, and Connor Heeb. Having three talented returning senior starters, one of them a 2^nd Team All Ivy last year, (Hyeamang), is a rarity for an Ivy defensive line. Perkovic was a force as a sophomore, but dealt with some injury issues last year. Junior Mike Hinton started in nine games last year and is also back. There’s also good senior help available from the converted linebacker Alexander Holme, who could be a lethal weapon with his height and now that he’s grown into the size needed for his position.

Getting back to that young blood, the leader in that category on the D-line is sophomore DeLorenzi, with the often overlooked fellow sophomore Arman Samouk making a good impact too. Michael Geraghty, who looked promising as a freshman last year, has left the team, but don’t be surprised if sophomores Alex Robin and LinDon Harris get more playing time too this fall. The most promising looking freshman is Andrew Nichols, but he may have a tough time breaking in this year with this deep unit.

And it is a very deep and exciting group for Columbia, even though Hyeamang seems to be the only player on everyone’s radar coming into the season. The bet is that by midseason, some of the other names above will be familiar to more non-Columbia fans.

The secondary doesn’t seem to be as deep, but is blessed with some unusually good returning talent. The leader here is Cameron Roane, back for his senior year after an impressive All Ivy campaign in 2016. 5^th year senior Denzel Hill will be the other corner after blossoming quickly into a real weapon last season when he switched to the secondary from wide receiver. Tall and lean CB’s who can cover WR’s and pick off passes are rare in the Ivies and he has the speed to be a force in this new role. Something about him reminds me of Steve Cargile ’04, who made the switch to the secondary from WR 15 years ago for Columbia and ended up playing in the NFL.

A surprise star in the defensive backfield last season was safety Landon Baty, who was a tackling machine for the Lions and is back for his senior campaign where he'll be one of the team captains. That leaves the other safety position open, but Ben McKeighan might have the inside track for that spot now. He’ll have competition though, especially since two of Columbia’s top incoming freshmen in Blake Wooden and Will Allen are both DB’s.

Bottom line, Columbia has four starters returning on the D-line and three starters returning in the secondary from two units that played very well last season. If you’ve been following Lion football for a decade or more, you know this is an unusually nice situation coming into a new season.

Oren Milstein

Special Teams Magic

Milstein really saved Columbia’s hide more than once last season and is only a sophomore now. He was directly responsible for two of the Lions’ three wins and his future looks bright.

The Lions did pretty well with the two-pronged punting attack of now-graduated tandem of Cameron Nizialek and Matthew Panton. But one of the top incoming freshmen punters in college football in Drew Schmid is now on board. 

The return game is another area where Columbia might stand out in the Ivies. Wainwright and Rose showed potential as punt and kickoff returners last season. But the big x-factor is freshman Darion Achido, who drew national attention as a return specialist last year.

This is probably one of the best, if not the best overall special teams units in the Ivies. And special teams can make the difference in a lot of games.

Wide Eyed Receivers: Ronald Smith and Josh Wainwright (pic from the CU Twitter account)

The Schedule

Columbia’s schedule is by no means “easy” this season, but it’s been a while since it was this favorably tilted. Two of the three teams predicted to be the best in the Ivies this year, Penn and Harvard, come to Wien Stadium this year. And the other team in the predicted top three, Princeton, will likely be playing without its best player -- John Lovett -- when the Lions travel to New Jersey to face the Tigers in week three.

The out of conference slate looks promising as well. The season home opener is against a Wagner team that Columbia knows it can defeat, (the Lions have beaten the Seahawks two years running), a Georgetown team Columbia knows it should have defeated two years running, and a Marist squad that looks like it’s out of its league playing almost any Ivy team. Columbia probably needs to win all three of these games to prove it’s a contender, but a 2-1 record against these teams wouldn’t be fatal either. Wagner is the x-factor team as it has some good talent returning and will surely want to get some revenge for its two-year losing streak to CU. 

Having to take on teams like Dartmouth, Yale, and Cornell on the road will make things harder but those all still look like winnable games at least for now. The only other thing to remember is that Columbia’s two most distant Ivy rivals in terms of mileage, Cornell and Dartmouth, are both road games this year. The last time the Lions beat Dartmouth and Cornell on the road in the same season was 2001.

Conclusions

On paper and on instinct, this certainly looks like the best Columbia team in several years. But we all know that’s a relative statement from a program that was riding a 24-game losing streak less than two years ago. But the talent and experience on this team have to lead even some objective observers to admit it’s a group that could have a winning season, if not contend for the Ivy title. Columbia has three winnable non-conference games, a home contest against a team it routed last season on the road, and faces a league where even the expected elite teams all have more than the usual serious questions buzzing around them.

And most importantly, unlike any time since Lou Little was the head coach, the Lions have someone with a very long history of winning seasons in this league under his belt at the helm in Bagnoli. 

The Lions have some serious obstacles and potential pitfalls to overcome for sure, but the nucleus of a competitive program that could go .500 or even a bit better is here. For most teams, that’s the norm. Now it is for Columbia as well.