Sunday, November 24, 2019

Finale Failure

Cornell 35 Columbia 9

Why Cornell Won

The Big Red Offense churned out 463 total yards, jumped out to a 21-0 lead, and the defense rarely faltered. QB Richie Kenny was an efficient 17 of 26 for 244 and no INTs, while senior RB Harold Coles ended his Cornell career with 122 yards rushing and two TDs.

Why Columbia Lost

The Lions defense opened the game unable to stop Cornell while the offense didn't register its first 1st down until its fourth possession. The Lions also committed a handful of unsportsmanlike conduct personal fouls on both sides of the ball.

Key Turning Points

-After Columbia went three-and-out on its opening possession, Cornell scored a TD on its second play from scrimmage with a 58-yard TD run by Coles.

-After the Lions closed the gap to 21-9 at the half, they began the 2nd half with an unsuccessful onsides kick that gave Cornell the ball at its own 49. The Columbia defense forced a three-and-out, but ran into the punter to give the Big Red the ball at the Columbia 40. Five plays later it was 28-9 and the brief competitive phase of the game was over.

Columbia Positives

-Columbia executed a nice fake punt in the 2nd quarter when Drew Schmid ran the ball up the middle for a 27 yard gain. Six plays later the Lions scored their one and only TD of the game.

-WR Josh Wainwright registered his second straight 100-yard receiving game, gaining 109 yards on 9 receptions.

Columbia Negatives

-The Lions defense was unable to stop Cornell at any time in the game and registered just one sack.

-The offense was unable to move consistently.

-The personal foul penalties, including another unnecessary taunting call on Wainwright rubbed salt in the Lion wounds.

Columbia MVP

-Josh Wainwright was as close to an effective weapon Columbia could put out there, despite his taunting penalty that killed a chance for the Lions to get into the game earlier in the contest.




Saturday, November 23, 2019

Salvage Operation

Columbia Lions (3-6) vs. Cornell Big Red (3-6)

November 23, 2019

Kickoff Time: 1:30pm

Schoelkopf Field

Game Time Weather Forecast: 42 degrees and partly cloudy

The Line: Cornell is favored by 2 points

TV/RADIO: The game is being broadcast live on SNY & ESPN+

The Game Last Year: Columbia 24 Cornell 21

Leading Story Lines

1) Cornell comes in on an amazing high after stunning previously undefeated Dartmouth in Hanover last week. The Lions come in on a low after losing to Brown at home and ending the Bears 20-game Ivy losing streak.

2) A key match up will be the Cornell offensive line's pass protection against the Columbia pass rush. If QB Richie Kenny gets time, the Big Red win. If not, they likely lose.

3) Another key match up will be the Cornell rush defense against the Lion running back by committee approach. If the Big Red shuts down the run, they win.

Week 10 Picks




I went a terrible 1-5 straight up and 3-3 against the spread last week to bring my season totals to 39-17 SU and 29-25-2 ATS

Yale -7 1/2 vs. Harvard

Yale is coming on strong to end the year, Harvard is fading fast. Yale will tie for the title with Dartmouth.

Brown +24 1/2 vs. Dartmouth

The Bears will make it interesting for a while, but Dartmouth wins to share the title.

Princeton -9 1/2 at Penn

Tigers bounce back to finish strong.

Holy Cross -8 vs. Georgetown

I've lost all faith in the Hoyas.

CCSU -7 1/2 at Duquesne

I like the Blue Devils' chances with a running QB in colder conditions.

St. Francis -17 at Delaware State

The Flash is finishing strong.

Sloppy Saturday

Brown 48 Columbia 24

Why Brown Won

The Bears put up 457 yards of total offense and got 300 yards passing from star QB E.J. Perry. The Brown defense created key turnovers, score a defensive TD, and shut Columbia out for most of the 2nd half.

Why Columbia Lost

The Lions defense faltered at several key moments of the game, while the offense ran out of gas early in the 3rd quarter.

Key Turning Points

-After Columbia rallied back from a 21-0 deficit to narrow the gap to 21-17 late in the 1st half, Brown faced a 4th and 1 at its own 30 yard line with 1:50 left before the break. The Bears went for it and RB Allen Smith burst through the middle for a 70-yard TD.

-Columbia scored a TD on its first play from scrimmage in the 3rd quarter to make it 28-24. But the Bears needed just six plays on the ensuing drive to score a TD on a 75-yard march.

Columbia Positives

-CU WR and co-captain Josh Wainwright had his best game of the year with 7 catches for 143 yards and two TD's.

-RB Ryan Young had a strong game, gaining 85 yards on 12 carries and rumbling for a 49 yard TD.

Columbia Negatives

-For the third straight week, the Lions fumbled on their opening offensive drive and saw their opponent convert the turnover for a TD... this time a defensive TD on QB Ty Lenhart's first fumble of the game. His second fumble also eventually turned into a Brown TD.

-The Lion defense not only faltered on that key 4th and 1 at the end of the half, it also blew chances to get turnovers on two occasions when Brown was in the red zone. The failure to grab those balls also let to eventual Bear TD's.

Columbia MVP

-If he doesn't take his likely 5th year of eligibility at Columbia, Josh Wainwright closed out his Lion career at home with a great game.

Saturday, November 16, 2019

Senior Saturday

Brown Bears (1-7) vs. Columbia Lions (3-5)

November 16, 2019

Kickoff Time: 1pm

Robert K. Kraft Field at Lawrence A. Wien Stadium

Game Time Weather Forecast: 39 degrees and sunny

The Line: Columbia is favored by 16 1/2 points

TV/RADIO: The game is being broadcast live on SNY & ESPN+

The Game Last Year: Columbia 42 Brown 20

Leading Story Lines

1) Today, Columbia will honor the senior class which also happens to be the first full recruiting class brought in by Head Coach Al Bagnoli. Calling this a a special group would be an understatement, but let's focus on the key stat: with a career W-L record of 20-18 so far, these seniors need just one more win to become the first graduating class of Columbia Football players to finish with a winning overall varsity record since the class of 1964. That's 55 years for those of your without a calculator. Clinching that feat on Senior Day would be a triumph.

2) On the other side of the field, Brown is looking at what's likely its last chance to win this season. The Bears did knock off Bryant in week one, but they haven't won since and their Ivy losing streak has reached 20 games. Next week, Brown travels to 9-0 Dartmouth where the Bears don't seem like they will challenge the Big Green.

3)  On the field, the key matchup is clear: Brown QB E.J. Perry vs. the Columbia defense. Perry has been Mr. Everything for the Bears in a big way, leading the team in passing and rushing yardage week after week. No defense in the league has really stopped him, but lucky for those other teams, the Brown defense hasn't stopped anyone either. Although he did not run like Perry, longtime Columbia fans should think of him as the modern version of Lion great QB John Witkowski '84. Witkowski would light up opposing defenses with stellar passing statistics every week in loss after loss, because Columbia's defense was so weak. Perry's abilities will not only put pressure on the Lion defense to contain him, but also on the Columbia offense to score as much as possible to keep up the pace.

Friday, November 15, 2019

Week 9 Picks




I went 2-2 straight up and 2-2 against the spread last week to bring my season totals to 38-12 SU and 26-22-2 ATS


Harvard -13 1/2 vs. Penn

This Crimson team will be the first graduating class to finish their careers without an Ivy title since Tim Murphy took over as head coach. But Penn is really weak this year.


Yale +8 1/2 at Princeton

The Tigers will eke this one out. Should be a good one.


Cornell +28 1/2 at Dartmouth

The Big Red will just barely cover.


Robert Morris +16 at CCSU

CCSU will still win, but the Blue Devils are getting weaker as the season goes on.


Wagner +8 at Saint Francis

Wagner to win.


Georgetown -4 at Bucknell

Hoyas get back on track.

Sunday, November 10, 2019

Back to Life

Columbia 17 Harvard 10 (OT)

Why Columbia Won

The Lions played their best defensive game of the season, holding the Crimson to just 10 1st downs, 63 rushing yards, and a 32% completion percentage. The offense saved its best play for the most crucial moments in the game, best exemplified by its 50% 3rd conversion rate.

Why Harvard Lost

Crimson starting QB Jake Smith had an awful game, completing just 6 of his 16 passes before being pulled in the 3rd quarter. Replacement QB Luke Emge was worse, going just 1 for 6 with an interception while the running game never got going. Meanwhile the Harvard defense couldn't get off the field, allowing Columbia to dominate the time of possession.

Key Turning Points

-On the third play of the 2nd quarter and the Crimson leading 7-0, sophomore WR/KR Mike Roussos suffered his first fumble of the season on a punt return attempt. But the ball was alertly scooped up by junior LB Carson Powell. The Lions then went on a 13 play 75 yard TD drive, capped off by an incredibly acrobatic one-handed four yard TD grab by sophomore WR Mozes Mooney.

-On the ensuing possession, the Crimson looked like they may answer with a score. But on 4th a 2 running play at the CU 37, freshman LB Scott Valentas got one of his 10-game leading tackles for a 10 yard loss.

-On their next possession, Harvard went for it again on a 4th an 1 at the Columbia 33 with just over a minute left in the half. But Smith's pass to Cody Chrest was incomplete, thanks to great coverage by senior CB Ben McKeighan.

-With the score still tied at 7-7, Harvard had a 3rd and 3 at the Columbia 10 just over a minute into the 4th quarter. On that play, Emge was stopped by sophmore LB John Harris and senior DL Max Mullaney for a two yard gain. The Crimson opted for the 25 yard FG, and the Lions dodged a major bullet.

-After Columbia sophomore QB Ty Lenhart ended the ensuing Lion possession with an interception at the Harvard 2 yard line, the Columbia defense came up big. Three Derrick Darrington runs by the Crimson netted just four yards and Harvard ended up punting the ball back to the Lions, where they began their next possession at the Crimson 47 with 5:24 left in the 4th. Thanks to two clutch catches by Mooney, Columbia answered with the game-tying 26-yard FG by freshman PK Alex Felkins. 

-In OT, the Lions faced a 3rd and 11 at the Crimson 26 when Lenhart rolled out and found a wide open senior TE Rory Schlageter for a 25 yard pass to the one. Roussos took it into the endzone on the next play for Columbia's first lead of the game. The Lions sealed the win on Harvard's first play from scrimmage in OT, as junior S Ben Mathiasmeier stretched out to make an interception and get one foot in bounds.

Columbia Postives

-The Lions only got two sacks on the day, but they kept pressure on the Harvard QB's all day.

-After not running Lenhart even once against Yale the week before, Columbia diversified his weapons again and sent him on 19 carries for a net of 50 yards.

-Columbia's underclassmen made a huge impact in the game, with Valentas, Mooney, Harris, and freshman Cameron Coleman making big plays.

Columbia Negatives

-The Lions were flagged numerous times for pass interference and the penalties were unnecessary because the passes were off target about half of the time.

-Lenhart again threw an interception that was the result of an ill-advised forced pass.

-The CU running game shows signs of improvement, but is still struggling overall.

MVP

It seems weird to not give the MVP nod to a defensive player in this game, but where would the Lions be without the clutch plays by Mozes Mooney? This was a breakout game for the sophomore who made clutch catches when it mattered the most.

Saturday, November 9, 2019

Crimson Contest

Harvard Crimson (4-3) vs. Columbia Lions (2-5)

November 9, 2019

Kickoff Time: 1pm

Robert K. Kraft Field at Lawrence A. Wien Stadium

Game Time Weather Forecast: 39 degrees and partly cloudy

The Line: Harvard is favored by 10 1/2 points

TV/RADIO: The game is being broadcast live on SNY & ESPN+

The Game Last Year


Leading Story Lines

1) Who's more shell-shocked? The Lions, who have lost their last two games by five touchdowns each... or the Crimson, who just lost to Harvard in the most amazing Hail Mary play in Ivy history, and fell to Princeton in a very tough contest the week before? No one should be surprised if both teams look a bit sluggish at the start.

2) Havard's Jake Smith is a senior who still throws too many interceptions despite otherwise being really talented. If he starts this game like he did versus Columbia last year, the Crimson will cruise to a win. If not, all bets are off.

3)  This is shaping up to be the coldest weather game the Lions have played in a few years, meaning the running game could play an out-sized role for both teams. Whoever establishes the running game the best will likely win.



Friday, November 8, 2019

Week 8 Picks



I went 4-2 straight up and 4-1-1 against the spread last week to bring my season totals to 36-10 SU and 24-20-2 ATS



Brown +17 1/2 vs. Yale

I think Brown is learning how to play more competitively. The Bears will also show the world just how much better Columbia might have done against the Elis if the Lions had run their QB. Brown will still lose, but cover.

Cornell +5 at Penn

The Big Red to win in a mild upset.


Dartmouth -3 1/2 vs. Princeton

I'm sad that I just don't have the time I need to write much more about this important game. The match up is great and I want to honor the teams playing... plus note the shame it is that Columbia is not yet good enough to compete at this level in a game at Yankee Stadium in our own backyard. I think the Big Green will win this one and it will live up to the hype.


CCSU -14 vs. St. Francis

I'm off the St. Francis bandwagon.


Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Bulldog Beatdown

Yale 45 Columbia 10

Why Yale Won

The Eli offense moved mostly at will, and the defense stuffed the Lion offense while creating turnovers to boot. Yale's QB Kurt Rawlings had a dominant performance passing and running the ball.

Why Columbia Lost

The Lions again failed to get a running game established, and the defense could not consistently hold the Bulldog attack.

Key Turning Points

-Columbia RB Dante Miller fumbled the ball away at the Yale 44 on just the second play from scrimmage in the game. Two plays later, the Elis had a TD.

-With the score still 7-0 Yale early in the 2nd quarter, the Lions faced a 3rd and goal at the Eli 2. WR Mike Roussos scored a TD from the wildcat position on the play, but it was called back for holding. Two plays later, Columbia had to settle for FG.

-On Columbia's next possession and with the score still 7-3, the Lions quickly marched to the Eli 19 yard line. But QB Ty Lenhart threw a pass the CU receiver wasn't ready for and it was intercepted at the Yale 15. The Elis then went on a 12 play TD drive to take a 14-3 lead and the game was essentially non-competitive after that.

Columbia Positives

-Roussos had another fine game, both receiving and returning the football.

-Freshman LB Scott Valentas had another stellar game, leading the team in tackles, three of them for a loss, and making a spectacular interception late in the 1st half.

Columbia Negatives

-Lenhart never ran the ball once during the game, after proving many times that he's more effective when he mixes the run and pass. His 17-for-38 completion stats were also a major drag on the offense.

-Co-Captain WR Josh Wainwright was out for the game and it appears WR Ronald Smith is gone for the season.

-The defense did net three sacks, but generally could not pressure or catch up to Rawlings on several key plays.

Columbia MVP

-Once again, it was Mike Roussos.




Saturday, November 2, 2019

Bowling for Cred

Columbia Lions (2-4) vs. Yale Bulldogs (5-1)

November 2, 2019

Kickoff Time: 12 noon

Yale Bowl

Game Time Weather Forecast: 49 degrees and sunny

The Line: Yale is favored by 4 1/2 points

TV/RADIO: The game will be live streamed on ESPN+

The Game Last Year

Key Story Lines

1) Yale was picked in the media poll to win the Ivies, but the Elis have been inconsistent despite their 5-1 record. Like Columbia, Yale was thrashed by Dartmouth in Hanover. The Lions have also been inconsistent, looking a bit off each week with the exception of the 44-6 rout of Penn two weeks ago.

2) Much of the game will center around the play of Yale QB Kurt Rawlings. Rawlings got his first significant playing time of his career as a freshman in the Eli win over CU oin 2016. When he's hitting his talented receivers for deep passes or running for gutty gains up the middle, Yale can't lose. But when he's contained, the team looks bad.

3) Columbia will likely look to establish its running attack against a Yale defense that's been spotty all year.

Friday, November 1, 2019

Week 7 Picks





I went 4-2 straight up last week and 5-1 against the spread. My totals so far are now 32-8 SU and 20-19-1 ATS


Cornell +22 1/2 vs. Princeton (GAME IS TONIGHT)

Princeton will win and come very close to covering the spread here, but the Big Red will be a bit tougher than expected.

Harvard +9 1/2 vs. Dartmouth

Dartmouth wins, but the Crimson will give the Big Green a few fits before losing.

Brown +14 at Penn

Quakers win in a shootout.

Colgate +10 at Georgetown

The Hoyas win, but it's close.

CCSU -14 at Wagner

I'm not sure why CCSU isn't favored by more.

St. Francis +4 1/2 at Duquesne

I'm sticking with the Flash to win this one.