Sunday, November 18, 2018

Magic Mike

Columbia 24 Cornell 21


Why Columbia Won

Columbia's backup, freshman kick returner Mike Roussos scored on a highly improbable 87-yard squib kickoff return for a TD with 45 seconds left to stun the Big Red. Roussos also had a 91-yard punt return for a TD earlier in the contest as the Lion special teams once again made the biggest difference in the game.


Why Cornell Lost

The Big Red couldn't cash in on enough scoring opportunities, despite out-gaining Columbia by 225 total yards. Cornell also had a disastrous day on special teams allowing two long TD returns and failing on two field goal attempts, the second from about extra point distance.

Key Turning Points

-With Columbia leading 10-0 and 13:57 left in the 2nd quarter, Lion RB Ryan Young pounded out a 33-yard run for an apparent 1st and goal at the Big Red 5 yard line. But the play was called back on a questionable illegal formation penalty and three plays later, QB Ty Lenhart threw the first of his two interceptions to give Cornell the ball back at the Columbia 49. The Lion offense wouldn't get back into a groove until the 4th quarter.

-With Columbia leading 10-7, Lenhart threw his second pick of the game to set the Big Red up again at the Lion 49. Four plays later, RB Harold Coles sprinted 31 yards untouched into the end zone for the first Cornell lead of the game at 14-10.

-On the ensuing Columbia possession, the Lions faced a 3rd and 14 at their 21 when Lenhart threw a pass to WR Kaleb Pitts, who was triple covered. But Pitts somehow came up with the ball for an improbable 25 yard gain. Lenhart would complete two more passes to convert two more 3rd and long plays during the drive before WR/QB Kyle Castner gave Columbia the lead back with a two yard TD run with 6:46 left in the game.

-Facing a 1st and 10 at the Big Red 22 with 2:50 to go, Cornell QB Dalton Banks completed his best play of the game by finding WR Owen Peters open in the middle of the field for a 48-yard completion. It took seven more plays for the Big Red to score, but Banks did grind it into the Lion end zone for a 21-17 lead with 58 seconds to go.

-On the ensuing kickoff, Cornell opted to go with a squib kick, even though kicker Zach Mays had previously booted the ball out of that same end zone for a harmless touchback earlier in the game. Roussos picked the kick up off the ground and somehow wove his way through traffic directly in the middle of the field for a miraculous TD.

Columbia Positives

-Once again, the Lion special teams stepped up to make the difference. In addition to the two incredible Roussos returns, kicker Chris Alleyne had another perfect day with a field goal and three PATs, and punter Drew Schmid had a number of excellent boots, averaging over 41-yards for the day and putting two kicks inside the 20. It was also Alleyne who made a huge tackle to stop Cornell's final kickoff return which otherwise may have ended with the Big Red in field goal range.

-Columbia got three sacks against a Cornell O-line that was one of the best in the league.

Columbia Negatives

-Lenhart has a lot of raw talent, and he was brilliant in Columbia's 75-yard scoring drive in the 4th quarter, but Cornell could have easily added to the two interceptions it snagged in the game.

-Columbia's pass defense was stellar all game long, until that 48-yard completion with 2:50 left. It was a rough time to finally give Banks an open man deep down the middle of the field.

-Lion play calling was a bit mystifying at times. While not spectacular, Columbia was having consistent success running the ball right up the middle. That made the occasional plays where Lion RB's were sent on sweeps and sideways runs seem strange when they consistently failed. Also, Lenhart's passes were almost all to the more dangerous middle of the field when he had a successful screen to Castner early in the game.

Columbia MVP

Obviously, this goes to Mike Roussos, who pulled off what was the most miraculous Lion win I've seen in all my 30-plus years of following this team every week. Yes, Columbia has come back from bigger deficits and against better teams. But the odds against this win with 58 seconds to go were massive. Just for context in our new sports analytics world, Cornell was 95% likely to win the game according to the ESPN/538.com meter after the Big Red scored its final TD. So returning a squib kickoff to win was likely the most improbable Lion victory scenario in team history.

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