Kansas City Hitter

 

6-0, 200-pound LB/RB Lucas Bullock from Blue Valley North HS in the Kansas City area has committed to the Lions. 

Bullock also had offers from Dartmouth, Cornell, and Colgate.

Bullock will be the third Blue Valley North grad to come to Columbia, joining current Lions Cameron Burt '23, and Reid Spachman '24.

That brings our list of unconfirmed commits for 2022 to 1​5:

1. Lucas Bullock LB/RB 6"0 200 lbs. Blue Valley North HS Overland, KS 

2. Mark Chapman OL 6"3 270 lbs.​​ Choate Rosemary Hall (PG), Guildford HS Guildford, CT

​​3. Ewan Clarke OT/DT 6"6 280 lbs. St. Stephen's/St. Agnes School Alexandria, VA

4. Matt Gallehdari LB/WR 6"3 215 lbs. Kent School/Hun School 

​​5. Ethan Hebb DB 6"2 190 lbs. Cardinal Gibbons/Williston Northampton School Raleigh, NC

​6​. Noah Jordan OL 6"5 307 lbs. St. Mary's Ryken HS Leonardtown, MD

​7​. James Lill OL/DL 6"5 287 lbs. Schroeder Webster HS/Avon Old Farms Webster, NY

​8​. Shawn Lin DL 6"4 250 lbs. Loyola HS Los Angeles, CA

​9. Jayden Marshall DB 6"0 190 lbs. Lee County HS/WIlliston-Northampton School Sanford, NC

​10. Kameryn Metcalf DB 5"10 180 lbs. D.R. Phillips HS Orlando, FL 

​11​. AJ Simpkins QB 6"3 212 lbs. The Christ School Arden, NC

​12​. Jack Smiechowski LB 6"1 195 lbs. St. Joseph HS Montvale, NJ

13. Patrick Sodl LB 5"11 210 lbs. Loyola HS Los Angeles, CA

14. Edan Stagg WR 6"1 175 lbs. University Lab School Baton Rouge, LA   

15. Owen Thomas DL 6"3 240 lbs. Westfield HS Chantilly, VA

Slipped through the Cracks

I've known about the commitment from 6-3, 215-pound LB/WR Matt Gallehdari since late September and somehow forgot to post about this impressive player ever since. Sorry Matt! 

Matt comes to Columbia Football from the Hun School in the shadows of Princeton University and he also is now doing a PG year at the Kent School in Connecticut.

Gallehdari will be only the second Hun School grad to come to Columbia football. Two Kent school grads have preceded Gallehdari to CU. 

That brings our list of unconfirmed commits for 2022 to 1​4:

1. Mark Chapman OL 6"3 270 lbs.​​ Choate Rosemary Hall (PG), Guildford HS Guildford, CT

​​2. Ewan Clarke OT/DT 6"6 280 lbs. St. Stephen's/St. Agnes School Alexandria, VA

3. Matt Gallehdari LB/WR 6"3 215 lbs. Kent School/Hun School 

​​4. Ethan Hebb DB 6"2 190 lbs. Cardinal Gibbons/Williston Northampton School Raleigh, NC

​5​. Noah Jordan OL 6"5 307 lbs. St. Mary's Ryken HS Leonardtown, MD

​6​. James Lill OL/DL 6"5 287 lbs. Schroeder Webster HS/Avon Old Farms Webster, NY

​7​. Shawn Lin DL 6"4 250 lbs. Loyola HS Los Angeles, CA

​8​. Jayden Marshall DB 6"0 190 lbs. Lee County HS/WIlliston-Northampton School Sanford, NC

​9​. Kameryn Metcalf DB 5"10 180 lbs. D.R. Phillips HS Orlando, FL 

​10​. AJ Simpkins QB 6"3 212 lbs. The Christ School Arden, NC

​11​. Jack Smiechowski LB 6"1 195 lbs. St. Joseph HS Montvale, NJ

12. Patrick Sodl LB 5"11 210 lbs. Loyola HS Los Angeles, CA

13. Edan Stagg WR 6"1 175 lbs. University Lab School Baton Rouge, LA   

14. Owen Thomas DL 6"3 240 lbs. Westfield HS Chantilly, VA

Another Lost Texas Lion

Former Columbia DL Colin Breckenridge '19 passed away last night. He came to Columbia from W.B. Ray HS in Corpus Christi, Texas.

He was working in the Denver area for Merit Medical Systems.

Our condolences go out to his family, teammates, and other friends.

Chantilly Grace

Owen Thomas

6-3, 240-pound DE Owen Thomas from Westfield HS in Chantilly, Virginia has committed to the Lions. 

Thomas has great speed and size and had offers from Brown, Valparaiso, and at least a preferred walk-on option at Virginia Tech. 

Thomas will be the first Westfield HS grad to come to Columbia Football. 

That brings our list of unconfirmed commits for 2022 to 1​3:

1. Mark Chapman OL 6"3 270 lbs.​​ Choate Rosemary Hall (PG), Guildford HS Guildford, CT

​​2. Ewan Clarke OT/DT 6"6 280 lbs. St. Stephen's/St. Agnes School Alexandria, VA

​​3. Ethan Hebb DB 6"2 190 lbs. Cardinal Gibbons/Williston Northampton School Raleigh, NC

​4​. Noah Jordan OL 6"5 307 lbs. St. Mary's Ryken HS Leonardtown, MD

​5​. James Lill OL/DL 6"5 287 lbs. Schroeder Webster HS/Avon Old Farms Webster, NY

​6​. Shawn Lin DL 6"4 250 lbs. Loyola HS Los Angeles, CA

​7​. Jayden Marshall DB 6"0 190 lbs. Lee County HS/WIlliston-Northampton School Sanford, NC

​8​. Kameryn Metcalf DB 5"10 180 lbs. D.R. Phillips HS Orlando, FL 

​9​. AJ Simpkins QB 6"3 212 lbs. The Christ School Arden, NC

​10​. Jack Smiechowski LB 6"1 195 lbs. St. Joseph HS Montvale, NJ

11​​. Patrick Sodl LB 5"11 210 lbs. Loyola HS Los Angeles, CA

12. Edan Stagg WR 6"1 175 lbs. University Lab School Baton Rouge, LA   

13. Owen Thomas DL 6"3 240 lbs. Westfield HS Chantilly, VA

 

5 Year Plans

It's helpful to look at the cumulative records of teams over five-year periods, so let's look at where Columbia ends up over the past five years and how that compares to the previous five years:

2016-2021 

School         Overall  W-L            Ivy W-L

Princeton          40-10                      26-9

Dartmouth        39-11                      24-11     

Yale                  31-19                      22-13    

Harvard            30-20                      19-16 

Penn                 27-23                      17-18

Columbia        27-23                      16-19 

Cornell             16-34                      11-24

Brown              11-39                       5-30            

2011-2015

School         Overall  W-L            Ivy W-L

Harvard            45-5                        31-4

Dartmouth        34-16                      25-10 

Brown              30-20                      17-18

Yale                  26-24                      16-19 

Penn                 24-26                      21-14 

Princeton          24-26                      17-18    

Cornell             14-36                       9-26

Columbia         6-44                         4-31   

A couple of things that jump out at you looking at these two 5-year composites:

1) Columbia enjoyed a 350% increase in overall wins and a 300% increase in Ivy wins from 2016-2021 compared to the previous five seasons.

2) While the ranking of the teams based on their overall records and Ivy records were identical from 2016-2021, the difference between overall and Ivy records for many teams from 2011-2015 was much more skewed. This may be the result of the overall weakening of non-Ivy opponents for all programs. 

3) Harvard dominated the 2011-2015 period in a way that's probably unmatched in Ivy history. The last five years have been much more competitive overall.

4) Brown's drop from the top three to a distant last in the Ivies has been stunning. The "little program that could" under Phil Estes has amassed just one more Ivy win from 2016-2021 than Columbia produced from 2011-2016, 

5) The most consistent program over the last 10 seasons, and that's not a good thing in this case, is Cornell. Almost as consistent during this period, in a good way, is Dartmouth. 

Transfer Troubles

For those of you now following the dizzying transfer portal activity for CU Lions players and players all across the league... 

Consider yourselves lucky.

Because the activity is frantic and also... in many ways... sad. 

First off, here's a list of some of the bigger names from the Lions 2021 roster who have entered the transfer portal. (Some of them have no Ivy eligibility left, and some have one year left)

Jordan Colbert

Ryan Young

Mike Roussos

Dante Miller 

Cam Dillon

There are probably others, but these are the headline names. 

The kicker is that from what I've seen so far for CU's potential transfers and for all the Ivy players from all the schools is that the offers they're getting are... unimpressive. 

Now, for someone like me who's had 20 different addresses in his life from all my moving around over the years, it may seem hypocritical if I simply pour cold water on CU students leaving the city for Kentucky Christian or UConn. So I won't make it about locales. I will make it about the fact that I think too many Ivy players with eligibility are making a mistake based on rare experiences like the one being enjoyed by former Dartmouth WR Drew Estrada at Baylor and former CU punter Cam Nizialek's experience at Georgia a few years ago. The fact is, their experiences came at a time when the transfer ranks were much smaller and the chances much better to hook up with an exciting and national championship caliber team. 

That is not the case now. 

I fear a lot of our former players and others will be disappointed by their options in the portal. More importantly, I fear they will regret missing out on that final semester or two on campus with their friends and classmates that you can never get back. 

And again, this is not sour grapes because a lot of the players above could not come back to CU Football anyway because of Ivy rules. 

This is just a weird COVID-related development that presents a little false "gold" for a lot of Ivy players. 

UPDATE: I should also mention that I think the Ivy League's rules for potential 5th year players, even during this COVID era, are still way too cumbersome and costly for the scholar-athletes and their families. Maybe if these rules were relaxed, some semblance of continuity could be achieved now and in the future. 

On the OTHER hand...

There is a chance the transfer portals could be filled with eligible players from smaller schools who might want to COME TO Columbia or the other Ivy schools and make an impact. 

With the exception of the good players the Ivy schools recruited during high school and lost to those other schools, the process may also turn out to be a disappointment. But hope probably springs eternal at some of the schools that are struggling football-wise right now. If I had to guess, Brown and maybe Penn will make a run at some top transfer talent in the coming weeks. 

OC on the Air

Offensive Coordinator Mark Fabish did a podcast interview before the season, and it is just available now. 

This is a longer-form interview, which may shed some light on a lot of things. 

Connecticut OL

6-3, 270 pound OL Mark Chapman from Choate Rosemary Hall and Guildford HS in Connecticut has committed to the Lions. 

Chapman had an offer from Bucknell and a preferred walk-on opportunity at UConn. He will be the first Guildford HS grad to come to Columbia Football, and the 10th Choate grad to do so. But he will be the first player to come from Choate since OL Austin Milliken '97.

That brings our list of unconfirmed commits for 2022 to 1​2​:

1. Mark Chapman OL 6"3 270 lbs.​​ Choate Rosemary Hall (PG), Guildford HS Guildford, CT

​​2. Ewan Clarke OT/DT 6"6 280 lbs. St. Stephen's/St. Agnes School Alexandria, VA

​​3. Ethan Hebb DB 6"2 190 lbs. Cardinal Gibbons/Williston Northampton School Raleigh, NC

​4​. Noah Jordan OL 6"5 307 lbs. St. Mary's Ryken HS Leonardtown, MD

​5​. James Lill OL/DL 6"5 287 lbs. Schroeder Webster HS/Avon Old Farms Webster, NY

​6​. Shawn Lin DL 6"4 250 lbs. Loyola HS Los Angeles, CA

​7​. Jayden Marshall DB 6"0 190 lbs. Lee County HS/WIlliston-Northampton School Sanford, NC

​8​. Kameryn Metcalf DB 5"10 180 lbs. D.R. Phillips HS Orlando, FL 

​9​. AJ Simpkins QB 6"3 212 lbs. The Christ School Arden, NC

​10​. Jack Smiechowski LB 6"1 195 lbs. St. Joseph HS Montvale, NJ

11​​. Patrick Sodl LB 5"11 210 lbs. Loyola HS Los Angeles, CA

12. Edan Stagg WR 6"1 175 lbs. University Lab School Baton Rouge, LA   

Another Carolina Lion

6-3 212-pound QB AJ Simpkins from the Christ School in Arden, North Carolina has committed to Columbia, adding to the growing list of very talented Lions from the the Tar Heel State.

Simpkins had a long list of competing offers, including ones from Yale, Miami of Ohio, Fordham, Lehigh, and Kent State. 

He will be the first Christ School graduate to come to Columbia Football. But at this point before graduate transfer activity is finalized, there are currently seven other North Carolina natives on the team.

That brings our list of unconfirmed commits for 2022 to 11:

1. Ewan Clarke OT/DT 6"6 280 lbs. St. Stephen's/St. Agnes School Alexandria, VA

2. Ethan Hebb DB 6"2 190 lbs. Cardinal Gibbons/Williston Northampton School Raleigh, NC

3. Noah Jordan OL 6"5 307 lbs. St. Mary's Ryken HS Leonardtown, MD

4. James Lill OL/DL 6"5 287 lbs. Schroeder Webster HS/Avon Old Farms Webster, NY

5. Shawn Lin DL 6"4 250 lbs. Loyola HS Los Angeles, CA

6. Jayden Marshall DB 6"0 190 lbs. Lee County HS/WIlliston-Northampton School Sanford, NC

7. Kameryn Metcalf DB 5"10 180 lbs. D.R. Phillips HS Orlando, FL 

8. AJ Simpkins QB 6"3 212 lbs. The Christ School Arden, NC

9. Jack Smiechowski LB 6"1 195 lbs. St. Joseph HS Montvale, NJ

10. Patrick Sodl LB 5"11 210 lbs. Loyola HS Los Angeles, CA

11. Edan Stagg WR 6"1 175 lbs. University Lab School Baton Rouge, LA  

Using the Green Machine

Longtime fans of this blog (which from 2005-2011 appeared here) know that I've always been interested in how QB's do on 3rd and 4th down. A big part of knowing just how good a QB is comes from looking at what he does as a passer and runner on those downs. 

So how did Joe Green do on the clutch downs this year?

Well, it's complicated. 

When you look at the stats below, Green's pretty decent completion percentages and good TD-INT ratio will stand out as the good news. The extremely low yards per attempt numbers and low percentage of passes for 1st downs will stand out as the bad news.

(On YPA: seven yards and higher is excellent and between six-seven yards is pretty good) 

What's complicated is that what jumped out at me as I combed through the stats is that Green simply wasn't called on to show his talents enough. Columbia ran the ball many times on 3rd and long this season, and it was clear in other ways that Green was being held back way too often. 

Another stat that jumps out is that only 40.3% of the passes Green COMPLETED on 3rd down went for 1st downs. Throwing behind the sticks on most of your 3rd down passes isn't aggressive enough. 

The 4th down numbers were a little better, but the percentage of 1st downs on 4th down passes completed is also too low. 

Now, we should be willing to excuse a lot of this considering Green's lack of any in-person work with the CU coaches until training camp, etc. But this is something Green and the coaches need to focus on for next season. 

What we saw from Green this year transcends just the numbers, (which is why analytics in football is not as helpful as it can be in baseball). Columbia has a QB who can make all the throws, roll out and scramble with great effectiveness, and practice fantastic ball security throughout. 

What we don't want to see is Green wasted as Sean Brackett '13 often was, especially by the Mangurian coaching regime that didn't let him run or roll out much during his senior season. 

And as much as we all loved seeing Green throw just three interceptions this season, the downside of that was that he probably wasn't throwing the ball enough. A more aggressive passing attack would have likely made a difference in the Princeton game for one thing, and that's something the coaching staff is probably considering this offseason. 

With the graduation of Ryan Young and likely departure of Dante Miller, (though I think he'd be wisest to stay at CU for another year), I still think Columbia's running back corps looks pretty good with guys like Ty'Son Edwards and Nicolas Nesbitt ready to go. And of course, dual-threat QB Gabriel Hollingsworth is a special weapon on the ground too. 

But for Columbia to really contend for a championship in 2022, the passing game needs to step it up. Luckily, we have the QB and the receivers to do it. 

Joe Green 3rd Down Passing 

Completions: 52

Attempts: 89 

Completion Percentage: 58.4%

Yards: 519

YPA: 5.83 

Passes for 1st Downs: 21 (23.5% of attempts, 40.3% of completions)

TD: 4

INT: 1

Sacks: 4

Joe Green 3rd Down Running

ATT: 5

Yards: 23

Avg: 4.6

1st Downs: 2

TD: 0

Fumbles: 0

Joe Green 4th Down Passing  

Completions: 6

Attempts: 9

Completion Percentage: 66.6%

Yards: 44

YPA: 4.88 

Passes for 1st Downs: 3 (33.3% of attempts, 50% of completions)

TD: 1

INT: 0

Sacks: 0

Joe Green 4th Down Running

ATT: 2

Yards: 9

Avg: 4.5

1st Downs: 2

TD: 0

Fumbles: 0