Sunday, October 27, 2019

Into the Maelstorm

Dartmouth 59 Columbia 24

Why Dartmouth Won

After a brief slow start, the Big Green exploded for 38 points in the final 20 minutes of the 1st half. Seven Dartmouth ball carriers averaged at least five yards per carry, and the defense created three Columbia turnovers that led to three Big Green touchdowns.

Why Columbia Lost

The Lions defense lost control of the game during the Dartmouth 38-point barrage. From that point on, the Big Green mixed dominating the line of scrimmage with a few trick plays to seal the game. The CU offense actually moved the ball well most of the game, but could not match Dartmouth's pace.

Key Turning Points

-Leading 3-0 midway through the 1st quarter, Columbia's junior CB Will Allen intercepted an ill-advised pass by Dartmouth QB Jared Gerbino, setting up the Lions just inside Big Green territory. But Columbia then went backwards thanks to two penalties and had to punt. On that punt, Columbia missed a tackle just as Dartmouth returner Drew Estrada caught the ball and he ran off with an 87-yard TD.

-With the score tied at 10 with 8:58 left in the half, Dartmouth took over at its 25 yard line after a CU kickoff and promptly marched down the field in five plays for a TD. It was the lead the Big Green would never give up.

Columbia Positives

-Despite losing by five TD's, the Lion running game continued to show improvement. Even before the game entered the "garbage time" phase, Columbia was getting good running gains with consistency against the best defense in the Ivies.

-While he did throw one INT for a pick six, sophomore QB Ty Lenhart played a solid game and it's notable that his one interception was not a pass right to a wide open defender. The Lions will be more competitive in future games if Lenhart can go 22-for-33 like he did against Dartmouth.

-The offensive line played well overall, giving up no sacks.

Columbia Negatives

-The Lions had no answer for a number of Dartmouth offensive weapons. After containing Gerbino for about 10 minutes, Columbia was no longer able to stop him as a runner.

-Columbia fell victim to a number of trick plays, especially a couple of flea flickers that went for scores.

-Columbia allowed a number of big kick and punt returns for the first time this season.

Columbia MVP

-Sophomore WR/Returner Mike Roussos had another strong game. He finished with seven catches for 83 yards, ran for a one-yard TD, and also had a couple of big kick returns including a 54-yarder.


Friday, October 25, 2019

Up Against the Best

Columbia Lions (2-3) at Dartmouth Big Green (5-0)

October 25, 2019

Kickoff Time: 6:00pm

Memorial Field

Game Time Weather Forecast: 52 degrees, 40% chance of rain

The Line: Dartmouth is favored by 20 points

TV/RADIO: The game is broadcast live nationwide on ESPNU

The Game Last Year


Leading Story Lines

1) Dartmouth has played the best football in the league and hasn't yet been challenged in a game. Columbia is coming off its best overall game in years. This is the perfect game to see which team's current reputation is the most accurate.

2) Dartmouth has a great offense, but its defense is the dominant unit... which is saying something. Any traction the CU offense gets in the game on offense will be a unique test this Dartmouth team hasn't faced in almost a year.

3) Weather may play a role, with chances of rain hitting 100% by the 4th quarter.

Week 6 Picks




I went 8-0 straight up and 5-3 against the spread last week, putting my season totals to 28-6 SU and 15-18-1 ATS. 


Penn +9 1/2 at Yale

The Elis will win, but the Quakers will make a game of it against the weaker than usual Yale defense.

Harvard +11 at Princeton

Princeton wins, but only by one score.

Brown +10 at Cornell

I think Brown will actually win this game.

Lehigh +3 vs. Georgetown

The bloom is coming off Georgetown's rose lately. Take the Mountain Hawks to win it at home.

St. Francis -6 1/2 vs. Sacred Heart

St. Francis is playing consistent football right when it counts.

CCSU -24 vs. LIU

Very tough road game for the new LIU program against a CCSU that is also playing its best football.

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

Learn from the Jets!

The New York Jets got an emotional and cathartic win over a quality opponent last week with their win at home over the Dallas Cowboys.

That win was supposed to be just the kind of emotional lift the Jets needed as they faced the perennial champion New England Patriots at Met Life Stadium last night.

The result? The Jets got plastered.

It would be a good idea for the Columbia Lions to learn from that scenario. No, the Lions aren't as bad as the Jets and Dartmouth isn't as perennially good at the Patriots. But the Big Green are the best team in the Ivies and Columbia won't be able to match them based on relief and emotion alone.

Monday, October 21, 2019

5 Questions

The 5 Most Burning Questions for Columbia Football after the Homecoming thrashing of Penn


1) Is this just a bit of a fluke, or did the real Lions finally emerge Saturday?

The historic win over the Quakers was certainly real, but Penn really did almost nothing right. There is a precedent for this program under Head Coach Al Bagnoli suddenly emerging after being under the radar. That was essentially the story in 2017 when the Lions turned from a team that was almost winning a lot of games to suddenly winning every game for the first six weeks of the season.

2) Even if this is for real, is it good enough to beat Dartmouth?

 Based on what I've seen this season, the Big Green seem a lot better than any other Ivy team. Thus, we may not learn much about the Lions if they lose Friday night in Hanover.

3) Is Lenhart a full-time starter at QB?

Sophomore QB Ty Lenhart brings a new dimension with his running prowess and he's not a bad passer as far as hitting open receivers goes. But he seems to throw at least one dumb interception per game and that could still give Bagnoli a lot of pause.

4) Are the Linebackers okay?

Since Bagnoli arrived, the Lions have been reloading at linebacker every year. Now with the emergence of freshman LB Scott Valentas, (which is not a surprise, as he was one of our highest-rated recruits), and perhaps some improved play from senior Jalen Williams, Columbia may be able to overcome the most injury-effected unit on the team.

5) Is Ronald Smith done for the year?

We were assured Smith would be back for Homecoming, but he did not suit up for the game. I can't believe he'll be in the lineup vs. Dartmouth, but stranger things have happened.

Sunday, October 20, 2019

Quaker Oafs

Columbia 44 Penn 6

Why Columbia Won

The Lions offense finally came to life with a stellar performance by the offensive line and a shot in the arm from a switch at the starting QB position. Meanwhile, the Columbia defense allowed no points, just 14 1st downs, and denied all three Penn 4th down conversion attempts.

Why Penn Lost

The Quakers did almost nothing right on offense, completing just 33% of their passes, and failing to establish their usually potent running game. Meanwhile, the defense couldn't stop the Lion running game and allowed Columbia to score TD's on all five of its trips to the red zone. Penn also committed a total of 10 penalties, some of which negated crucial plays.

Key Turning Points

-It seems like a stretch to single out the opening play from scrimmage as a turning point, but sophomore QB Ty Lenhart's flea flicker pass to sophomore WR Mike Roussos for 47 yards to the Penn 28 set the tone for the day. Four running plays later, the Lions were up 7-0.

-On the ensuing Penn possession, the Quakers went for it on a 4th and 1 at their own 45. Penn opted for a pass that was broken up by senior CB Ben McKeighan. This play would also set a tone, as the Quakers would end the day 0 for 3 on 4th down and McKeighan would finish with three pass breakups.

-Trailing 17-0 at the half, Penn took the opening 2nd half kickoff and promptly drove into Columbia territory. But the drive fizzed at the Lion 47 and the Quakers had to punt. On the ensuing Columbia possession, the Lions went 79 yards on 11 plays, capped by an 11-yard TD run by junior Broderick Taylor, and the competitive phase of the game was over.

Columbia Positives

-The offensive line played not only its best game of the year, but possibly its best game of the Al Bagnoli era. Columbia rushed for 255 yards and allowed no sacks. That performance gave credence to the theory that the Lion OL play was the biggest reason for the entire team's struggles before this game.

-Lenhart did not have a perfect game, but he energized the offense with his running ability and made enough key passes to keep Penn off balance.

-The defense was dominant, containing the strong Quaker running game and avoiding any home run plays. Freshman LB Scott Valentas was especially impressive with a team-leading seven tackles, including 2.5 tackles for a loss.

-Freshman K Alex Felkins proved he could hit a FG from less than 50 yards with a 43-yarder in the 1st quarter.

Columbia Negatives

-Lenhart did throw two bad interceptions on plays when he was not under pressure. He could be an elite Ivy QB if he can cut down on those kinds of mistakes, but he's not there yet.

Columbia MVP

-Despite the interceptions, Ty Lenhart showed a great combination of leadership and athletic skill, throwing for a TD and running for two others on a total of 95 rushing yards on the day. Lenhart seems to have made the case to keep the starting job.





Saturday, October 19, 2019

Homecoming Hope

Pennsylvania Quakers (2-2) vs. Columbia Lions (1-3)

October 19, 2019

HOMECOMING 2019

Kickoff Time: 1:30pm

Robert Kraft Field at Wien Stadium

Game Time Weather Forecast: 57 degrees and sunny

The Line: Penn is favored by 1 1/2 points

TV/RADIO: The game is available on ESPN+ and the SNY network

The Game Last Year: Penn 13 Columbia 10


Leading Story Lines

1) The Columbia season so far has been a disappointment, mostly due to problems on the offensive line. But injuries are also mounting up, with starting LB's Justin Woodley and Cameron Dillon now out for the season. Homecoming provides a great chance at redemption and that's clearly been the key focus for the team all week.

2) Penn's defense is not bad, but it's relatively weaker than the last three teams Columbia has faced. If the offense can't get on track today, it may not be able to get there this year.

3) Penn's offense is improved over last year and RB Karekin Brooks is the Ivy League's leading rusher. The Lions need to contain him and get Quaker QB Nick Robinson under pressure to win the game.

Thursday, October 17, 2019

Week 5 Picks



I went 4-3 straight up last week and 3-4 against the spread. For the year I'm 20-6 SU and 10-15-1 ATS

Dartmouth -30 1/2 at Marist

Should be a really fun day for the Big Green.

Brown +24 1/2 vs. Princeton

It seems like new Brown Head Coach James Perry gets his team to play the best against teams he used to coach. Princeton still wins by 3 scores, but not by 24+.

Holy Cross +6 vs. Harvard

I still like Harvard to win, but only by about a field goal.

Yale -4 at Richmond

The Elis bounce back.

Colgate +7 at Cornell

Colgate gets its first win of the year.

Georgetown -11 1/2 vs. Lafayette

The Hoyas will bounce back from last week's loss.

CCSU -21 1/2 vs. Bryant

Bryant is very weak and CCSU is on a roll.

St. Francis -3 1/2 at LIU

LIU is a new FCS team, (we need to schedule them), and is not ready to win quite yet.




Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Still Struggling

Central Connecticut State 24 Columbia 14

Why CCSU Won

The Blue Devils stopped Columbia's offense several times deep in their territory late in the game, and the offense put together a handful of big plays to keep the Lions behind.

Why Columbia Lost

The Lions offense struggled to get into a groove and finally failed on numerous chances to tie the game or take the lead late. The defense played well overall, but finally wilted late in the game.


Key Turning Points

-With CCSU leading 10-7 and 1:34 left in the half. a good Drew Schmid punt pinned the Blue Devils at their own 5. CCSU promptly went on a seven play, 95-yard drive to extend their lead to 17-7 at the half.

-With CCSU now leading 17-14 and 9:44 left in the game, a Mike Roussos 20-yard punt return set the Lions up at the Blue Devil 45. But Columbia went three-and-out and had to punt.

-On the ensuing possession, Roussos pulled off a brilliant 55-yard punt return to set up Columbia at the CCSU 25 with 6:04 left in the game. But the Lions went three-and-out and Alex Felkins missed a 43-yard field goal on 4th down.


Columbia Positives

-The Lions defensive line had its best game of the year, registering five sacks and mostly keeping the CCSU rushing game in check.

-WR Josh Wainwright had his best game of the year and finally grabbed a nice long TD pass.


Columbia Negatives

-Overall, the Lion offense wasn't effective enough. The rushing game averaged less than two yards per carry.

-Columbia may have over-substituted at crucial moments, especially when QB Josh Bean was pulled from a 2nd half series just as he was getting into a groove.

-The clock management at the end of the 1st half, considering how punchless the offense had been, was ill-advised. The CCSU final TD of the half was thus aided by a CU time out early in their drive.


Columbia MVP

Mike Roussos had brilliant punt and kick returns all day, and he grabbed a TD pass in the 3rd quarter

Friday, October 11, 2019

Trying to Get on Track, Take 2

Central Connecticut Blue Devils (4-1) vs. Columbia Lions (1-2)

October 12, 2019

Kickoff Time: 1pm

Robert Kraft Field at Wien Stadium

Game Time Weather Forecast: 65 degrees and partly cloudy 

The Line: Columbia is favored by 2 1/2 points

TV/RADIO: ESPN+ and Columbia online audio

The Game Last Year: Columbia 41 CCSU 24


Leading Story Lines 


1) Head Coach Al Bagnoli and his coaching staff are under pressure to fix the offense's woes and get a win before the season gets away from the team. Fans will be scrutinizing play calling more than usual and the offensive line will need to show significant improvement. 

2) CCSU is one of those FCS teams that plays very different games every week. That's because of the parade of transfers from BCS programs that sometime play up to their abilities and sometimes not. So, you never know what you're going to get. But the key challenge for the Lions will be containing Blue Devil QB who can run well and is improving as a passer.

3) Look for something different from Columbia by way of an offensive set or a series of trick plays to loosen things up a bit up front. 

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Week 4 Picks




I went 5-1 straight up and 3-3 against the spread last week. For the season, I'm 17-2 SU and 7-11-1 ATS


Lafayette +30 at Princeton (Game is Friday night)

Lafayette is playing a bit better than expected and will play the Tigers a bit closer than a 30-point spread. Princeton still wins.


Harvard -14 1/2 vs. Cornell

The Crimson are starting to get into a groove.


Yale +13 at Dartmouth

Yale will make a decent game of it, but the Big Green will keep this under control.


Brown +6 1/2 vs. Holy Cross

The Bears have been playing everyone, except Harvard, pretty close. I think the Bears actually win this one too.


Penn -7 1/2 vs. Sacred Heart

Sacred Heart is struggling now.


St. Francis -9 1/2 vs. Robert Morris

Red Flash are ready to make a run for their conference title.


Fordham +11 at Georgetown


The Rams will play the Hoyas close, but lose late.








Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Petering Out in P-Town

Princeton 21 Columbia 10

Why Princeton Won

The Tigers avoided the big mistakes, mostly controlled the line of scrimmage and still had enough offensive firepower in the 2nd half to overcome a sluggish first two quarters.

Why Columbia Lost

Once again, the Lion offense couldn't get much consistency mostly due to a lack of adequate blocking. The defense provided a number of opportunities the offense didn't completely cash in on.

Key Turning Points

-With Columbia leading 10-7 at the half, the Lions got the ball first to start the 3rd quarter and promptly went backwards seven yards before punting the ball back to Princeton. The Tigers then went on a 61-yard, 11-play drive for a TD that permanently gave control of the game back to Princeton.

-With about 11 minutes left in the game and Princeton still up 14-10, Lion junior DB Ben Mathiasmeier brilliantly stepped in front of a swing pass by Tiger QB Kevin Davidson but he was unable to hold to the ball negating what looked like a certain pick-six. Princeton recovered from that play and went on to score the game-icing TD on that possession.

Columbia Positives

-The Lion defense played the best game against Princeton since Dartmouth almost beat the Tigers last year. There wasn't enough consistent pressure on Davidson, but Columbia kept a 50-plus points per game offense in check most of the game.

-QB Josh Bean had a much more efficient day passing, especially in the first half when he went 13-14 through the air.

-WR Ronald Smith had a brilliant game, getting consistently open and often fighting hard for yards after the catch.

Columbia Negatives

-The running game is still operating without sufficient blocking to be effective. It was better overall than the loss in week 2 vs. Georgetown, but the Lions still only had 40 net yards rushing. Even if you take away the 34 rushing yards lost from four sacks allowed, that's still only 74 yards rushing.

-The defense was strong overall, but two of the three Princeton TD's were the result of busted or poor tackling plays.

Columbia MVP

-Ronald Smith's stellar day almost was enough to give the Lions a win.

Saturday, October 5, 2019

Turnpike Test

Columbia Lions 1-1 vs. Princeton Tigers 2-0

October 5, 2019

Kickoff Time: 1pm

Princeton Stadium

Game Time Weather Forecast: 58 degrees and sunny

The Line: Princeton is favored by 22 1/2 points

TV/RADIO: ESPN+ and Columbia online audio

The Game Last Year: Princeton 45 Columbia 10


Leading Story Lines 

1) Princeton is on a 12-game winning streak and has blown out its two opening opponents. The Lions are reeling after a surprising home opening loss to Georgetown. The betting line says it all as the experts are expecting a whipping at Old Nassau.

2) Princeton's offense continues to churn out massive points despite the starting QB. New starter Kevin Davidson has completed 81 percent of his passes, averages 12.2 yards per attempt, has 9 TD passes, and no INTs. Columbia's defense has its work cut out for it today.

3) The last time these two teams met at Princeton Stadium, the Lions beat the Tigers in dramatic fashion, 28-24. Princeton was a 15-point favorite in that game, and Columbia is hoping to repeat some of that magic.


Thursday, October 3, 2019

Week 3 Picks



I went 6-0 with my straight up picks last week, but 2-4 against the spread. For the season, I'm 12-1 SU and 4-8-1 ATS


Dartmouth -14 1/2 at Penn (NOTE: Game is Friday night)

I want to consider all the intangibles in this game that favor Penn: the long road trip for Dartmouth, the home opener for the Quakers, the excitement of a nationally televised game. But in the end, I still think the Big Green are more than two TD's better.


Brown +17 1/2 vs. Rhode Island

The Bears are playing well enough to keep this closer than 18 points, but URI will win.


Fordham +18 1/2 at Yale

The Elis are playing down to their competition a bit so far this year, and I expect that to continue. But they will win over the Rams.


Howard +26 at Harvard

Howard will be taking this game as a matter of pride. The Crimson will win, but they'll get more of a challenge than expected.


Georgetown +10 1/2 at Cornell

I think the Hoyas are better than many people think and will keep it close before Cornell squeaks by.


CCSU +4 1/2 at Sacred Heart

I think CCSU will win in a mild upset.