If you were a Dartmouth coach, what would you be focusing on from Columbia's first five games in hopes of ending the Lion winning streak this Saturday in Hanover?
Trying to be completely honest about where CU's strengths and weaknesses truly are, I'd do the following five things, (and yes, this is a bit of reverse psychology and I hope the Columbia coaches are planning countermeasures to each):
1) Start out going 100 mph
Columbia has officially played two road games already, but that's not the whole story. For the Princeton game, the team did not make any overnight travel. And the Marist game was an overnight trip, but Marist is only an hour or so from campus. The Lions still had to play on foreign turf and deal with opposing fans, (although the crowd at Princeton was especially thin and the Marist crowd was taken out of the equation fast), but getting to sleep and stay in your own room is a big way to cut down on road weariness.
Not this time. Not only is this a real road trip, but it's the longest by far for the team this year and the longest ever for all the sophomores and freshmen who have never ventured further than Harvard for a road game.
If I were the Dartmouth coaches, I'd test to see if the Lions are fully awake as soon as possible. Onside kick to start the game? Possible. Total blitz package on Columbia's first offensive possession? Absolutely. Deep pass or trick play on offense on the Big Green's first drive? Yes.
2) Test the other corner
Marist and then Penn just missed on at least four deep balls to receivers that were open against Columbia DB's not named Cameron Roane. While Ben McKeighan and the other corners have played well, they're at least sometimes beatable if the opposing QB can deliver the ball accurately.
3) Use the TE to test CU's tacklers
It doesn't look like Dartmouth uses big senior 255-pound TE Stephen Johnston as a very frequent passing target, but he does have three receptions this year and one for a TD. The Lions do a very good job of covering opponents' top receivers, but they've also shown some problems wrapping up bigger receivers along the sidelines.
4) Penalties are better than home runs
In most Ivy games, when a receiver gets open deep, there is still less than a 50% chance that the eventual bomb of a pass will be completed. But Columbia is getting really good at achieving an insanely high percentage of completions on passes that travel 30+ yards in the air. To avoid the big TD play and to disrupt the Lion rhythm, Dartmouth shouldn't be shy about taking a few 15-yard pass interference penalties when and if their DB's get burned.
5) Run Heneghan late
Expect Columbia to not expect Dartmouth to run QB Jack Heneghan in key situations. I think he could make some big gains, but it would be foolish to tip that hand too early in the game. From the late 3rd quarter on, the Big Green coaches should put in a running package for him with designed QB draws.
7 comments:
If our O line blocks better for Hill, and we are healthy in our secondary and receivers, we have an excellent shot. But Wainwright can't be our only threat.
Also, the Penn runners seemed a lot harder to stop than we were.
Both teams have relied on breaks and last minute heroics all season. 2 sets of Cardiac Kids playing each other. Fetch the nitroglycerin tablets, Edna.
Based on 5dimes and Compughter, we are solid 5 point dogs here. Given the past point diffs, this warrants a bet on the Lions regardless of outcome.
Weren't we 17 point dogs at Princeton? And 5 point dogs with Penn?
A few points
- We traveled overnight to Marist.
- most sophomores who are playing traveled last year to Cornell, they'll be fine
- while wainwright is special, the receivers go 5-6 deep.
In the "good old days" the Indians would let the grass grow to over your high-top spikes and run the ball down your throat.
I think this game comes down to the kicking.
Pick you poison.
Cornell was a home game last year.
My bad, you're right.
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