Kurt Rawlings
*I’m basically filing this season preview under protest because of the Ivy League’s unwise decision not to hold a coaches preseason teleconference this year. Thus, I am flying blinder than usual.
League Overview
These are happy times for most Ivy football fans as the long period of the Penn-Harvard duopoly basically in place from 1997-2016 is now truly over. Some long-hurting programs have improved almost beyond recognition and some of the dominant teams rightfully are being forced to struggle more.
The best evidence of this is that so many teams were still in contention for a piece of the championship until the final weeks of 2017. And it looks very much like we could see a similar scenario shake out this season. No team looks like a shoo-in this season even by the greatest stretch.
Another key story line for 2018 is that only two Ivy teams return their undisputed starting QB from 2017. That will not only play a role creating more balanced competition, but it will also make things a little more exciting and mysterious than usual this fall.
But here's how I think it will all end in late November:
1. Yale
The Elis really were the best team in 2017, despite a lot of close wins. The explosive debut for then-freshman RB Zane Dudek was the biggest reason, but the big improvement from QB Kurt Rawlings, (btw, is there a better football name on the planet?), and dominant play by the Bulldog defense made it happen too.
But that defense is losing so many top players to graduation and now the team captain, DL Kyle Mullen, is out of school for an undisclosed reason. Repeating as the #1 Ivy defensive team in 2018 seems almost impossible.
The reason why I still think Yale is the favorite is because so many of the other key cogs are back. Two All Ivy O-linemen come back, and of course Dudek and Rawlings. Plus, Yale has recruited such top talent since Head Coach Tony Reno arrived that it's not a stretch to believe adequate replacements are ready to play.
And it also comes back to the fact that Yale has a returning star QB in Rawlings, when so many other Ivy teams have to fill vacancies. That fact and because the Elis get Ivy contenders Dartmouth and Princeton at home this season play a big part in happy predictions for the Bulldog faithful this year.
2. Columbia
My full preview of the 2018 Lions will be published here next week
3. Dartmouth
It only took the Big Green one year to get back into Ivy contention after an excusable down year in 2016 following the loss of once-in-a-generation QB Dalyn Williams. The fact that it took so short a time to bounce back proves that the Dartmouth program is a very healthy ship from recruiting to game day coaching in a way that it simply wasn't a decade ago.
Big questions at QB and RB loom for the Big Green, but most of the rest of the team looks strong. That's especially true for the O-line, WR's, and a lot of the defense.
Meanwhile, Dartmouth at least knows it has a weapon in running QB Jared Gerbino. That will give whoever takes over full time behind center room to ease into the role. Florida transfer QB Jake Allen certainly has the raw talent to make an impact by mid season, but sophomore Derek Kyler might get the first start.
On the down side, Dartmouth's chances to win it all look darker after a hard look at the schedule. Rough road games against Yale, Columbia, and Princeton loom large.
4. Princeton
Let's get a few things straight:
1) Princeton had the best offense in the Ivies last year. In fact, it was the best Ivy offense I've seen in the 31-years I've been following this league week after week.
2) Princeton had the worst defense in the Ivies last year. In fact, it got worse when games were on the line.
3) All the buzz at Princeton is about a returning All Ivy offensive player.
4) This does not compute.
Okay, okay, that All Ivy returnee is the dazzling QB/WR/RB John Lovett, the 2016 Ivy Offensive MVP.
But honestly, how exactly can he improve upon a Tiger offense that was so impressive last season? Honestly, I can't think of one game that Princeton lost that had anything to do with anything other than the defense.
By all logic, that offense will surely not be as good in 2018 with the graduation of pocket QB Chad Kanoff. Sure Lovett will take up a lot of slack, and Alabama offeree Brevin White could also contribute at QB sometime this season too. And killer WR's like Jesper Horstead, who really can't be covered because of his height, Stephen Carlson, and Tiger Bech are back too. But I just don't see Princeton's offense improving from that 2017 level at all.
The defense seems likely to improve, but by how much? To hear the pundits tell it, you'd think star DE Kurt Holuba was out all year. But he wasn't, and he was neutralized in a few key games including at key moments against Columbia.
That said, there were some serious injury losses across the board for the Tiger D in 2017 and that explains a lot of their woes.
The thing is, it makes sense that Princeton will be better on defense but it's no sure thing it will be one of the better defenses in the league. And it will probably need to be to make a serious run for the title. Throw in tough road games at Columbia and Yale and I'm just not on the Tiger championship bandwagon this season.
Jake Smith
5. Harvard
Harvard has an unsettled QB spot, but so does most of the rest of the league.
Harvard has some questions on the D-line, but so does most of the rest of the league.
Harvard is coming off two straight disappointing seasons, and so is... well... that's new.
And the "Harvard is Harvard" knee jerk response to all the Crimson's questions has proven to be faulty for two years running.
If one wants to be positive about Harvard, it's best to stick with more concrete facts, like the stunning talent of senior WR Justice Shelton-Moseley, a great RB in Charlie Booker, the return of All Ivy OL Larry Allen Jr., and not one, but two good returning DT's in Richie Ryan and, (the also well football-named), Stone Hart.
Sophomore Jake Smith seems to have the inside track to be the starting QB this year after inconsistent play during several starts last year. It's not clear how much he's being pushed by others in training camp and we await news on that front.
The linebacking and secondary corps at Harvard is also a question mark right now.
And finally, I'm beginning to believe Head Coach Tim Murphy may be losing his edge as he begins his 25th season at the helm for the Crimson. Any thoughts that I was alone in this thinking were dispelled when I got a few unsolicited emails from long-time Ivy fans who saw the coaches roundtable video released earlier this month and told me they thought Murphy looked exhausted and a bit weighed down. That should take nothing away from the man who I think is hands down the best Harvard football coach of the modern era. But the late Carm Cozza was the greatest Yale coach of the modern era and he probably stuck around a year or two too long as well.
Throw in tough road games for Harvard at Dartmouth, at Princeton, and at Penn, and I'm not convinced this is the year the Crimson bounce back.
So, I'm not willing to give the Crimson the benefit of the doubt and pencil them in as champs. But I do think they're a fair bet to finish in the top 4 even though I'm picking them 5th. If anything, Harvard is a better bet to challenge for the top in about two years when this current recruiting class, (for 2019), arrives on campus.
6. Cornell
The structural problems in the Cornell football program are still there.
The best Cornell defensive player in years has graduated.
The Big Red have tough road games this season against Columbia and Princeton and brutal season opener at Delaware.
But Cornell also has a returning QB and a good one in Dalton Banks.
And that's why this could be a year that's looking up in Ithaca.
Joining Banks is 2016 All Ivy RB Chris Walker who missed last year to injury. Cornell also brings back its entire starting O-line from last year, which was generally pretty good at least in a few key games.
There's also enough returning talent at WR to keep the Big Red potent on offense.
The defense doesn't look as strong, but it still looks better than most years under Head Coach David Archer. LB Reggie Seggebruch is the star here and the secondary still returns a pair of All Ivy safeties.
But the loss of All-Everything Nick Gesualdi at safety is the biggest reason why it seems foolish to expect a top four finish for Cornell.
Nevertheless, the Big Red seem like a great dark horse candidate unless last year's wins over Harvard and Princeton were total flukes and things come crashing down this year.
7. Penn
Don't think it's easy to predict the mighty Quaker program will finish seventh, because it isn't easy.
But it's hard not to have serious doubts about a team that loses a once-in-a-generation WR, has questions at QB, and lost a great defensive leader to a transfer decision.
The good news is the Quakers still have a decent defense. I especially like the LB's led by Nick Miller, (who may be the best LB in the league), and Syracuse transfer Colton Moksal.
Penn has talent on offense, especially in RB Karekin Brooks, Illinois transfer QB Nick Robinson, and most of the offensive line is returning.
But this season looks like it could be something like what Dartmouth suffered in 2016 as a good program suffering a down year after a historic player graduates.
8. Brown
Brown's long run of making something out of its challenges as a program, (lousy stadium, weak fan support, Harvard and Yale in their backyard), seems to be over.
The key example of that can be seen at the QB position. For years, Head Coach Phil Estes seemed to have a QB factory in Providence. But last year, Brown got the worst QB play in the league.
It stands to reason it will get better this year under center, but it's not exactly clear who the starter will be. The O-line was terrible last year and should also be better, but that's relative.
Brown's best strength is in the receiver corps, which managed to put up some decent numbers despite the QB quality. The returning Jakob Prall is the best of that bunch.
The defense was poor in 2017 and suffers the loss of its best player to graduation.
I'd be surprised if the Bears go 0-7 in the league again, but not shocked.
Addendum
What I got wrong about last year:
In picking Penn to win the title, I overestimated the Quakers and underestimated almost everyone else. Penn did finish the season strong.
What I got right:
I knew Columbia would move up considerably in the standings and crack the first division. I just shortchanged them a place or two.
No comments:
Post a Comment