Columbia Football 2023 Forecast

This image posted by the CU Athletic Department says it all

OVERVIEW

We knew Al Bagnoli would not be able to remain as Columbia's head coach forever, but his sudden retirement due to health concerns just six weeks before season was a pretty big shock. 

But you can make a strong argument that the impact of being without Bagnoli will be most felt after this season is over because the players, schemes, and other preparations for this fall were decidedly in place before his departure. One concern, recruiting without the Bagnoli name and reputation to back it up, seems to be okay so far as CU has netted some high quality commitments so far for next year. 

The Mark Fabish era begins

The burning issue now is the pressure interim Head Coach Mark Fabish must be feeling to deliver a better than expected season and get that "interim" title removed for good. Players and their families have given me mixed reviews about Fabish for the last eight years, but even his biggest detractors agree with me that things could change in his new role and there's nothing to do but give him total support in this unusual predicament. 

In addition to the sudden change in responsibilities, Fabish has to deal with an Ivy League that looks stronger overall coming into this season and a schedule that forces the Lions to go on the road to play the two of the four teams picked ahead of them in the preseason Ivy poll. That includes prohibitive Ivy title favorite Yale at the Bowl on October 28th and an earlier trip to the runner up in the poll - Princeton - on Friday night September 30th on national TV. 

The good news is Fabish has already won the first battle, as there has been no exodus of players and excitement in camp seems to be high. There is evidence that the entire culture of the Columbia Football program has improved so much that even Bagnoli's unplanned absence is not bringing things down like a house of cards. 

This is still a team that finished last season on a three game winning streak, the first time the Lions have ended a season that way since 1947. Two close wins at Harvard and Brown, (Harvard being Harvard and Brown being a very tough team in Providence last year), and then a total thrashing of Cornell at home, (when the Big Red were desperately playing for their first winning season in almost 20 years), give Columbia more momentum coming into a season than we've seen in a very long time. That momentum doesn't seem slowed by Bagnoli's retirement. 

In that sense, Columbia has triumphed already. But no one will care about a good training camp and strong player morale three months from now if the Lions turn in a losing season. 

OFFENSE

Two major headlines dominate the offensive side of the ball for interim Offensive Coordinator Joe D'Orazio & co. and the team as a whole. 

Caden Bell

QB Competition

First. Columbia must decide who will be the starting QB. Should it be 5th year senior Caden Bell, who made a positive impact after taking over the starting job last season from an injured Joe Green and was the key factor in the Lions winning their last three games of the year? Or should Green get the job back that he only lost because of that injury? 

All indications are that the coaches had not made a final decision going into camp and there has been a legitimate competition for the job. That could mean both QB's will be used a good deal. Another possibility is for the Lions to get extremely ambitious and use both Bell and Green on the field at the same time, much like Princeton did in 2016 with pocket passing star Chad Kanoff and passing, running, and receiving sensation John Lovett. 

But I still think only one will be the clear starter at the position and will get more than 60% of the snaps, etc. My money is on Bell to get that designation because of a number of factors. One of them is his running ability, which we didn't get to see fully last year because Columbia desperately needed to avoid another QB injury. With Green available now behind him, Bell should get those reins taken off at least a bit. 

The good news is that this is the most proven talent the Lions have enjoyed at the QB position in many years. 

O-Line Rebuild

By Ivy League standards, having two returning starters on an offensive line isn't too bad, but it's a clear step down from the highly experienced unit Columbia fielded in 2021 and 2022. 

Technically, the Lions have three returning starters in Zach Mills, Andrew Pruske, and Luke Painton. There is also junior John Iannuzzi, who played in six games last year. 

But Painton is the ultimate wildcard as he transitions from being a two-year starter as a primarily pass-catching Tight End to presumed starter at Left Tackle. After seeing how much bigger and stronger Painton got from 2021 to 2022, I have no doubt he made the physical transformation for the new job, but how well he actually plays will be a major determining factor for the Lions in 2023. Simply put: if Painton can play LT at somewhere neat All Ivy honorable mention level or better, then the sky's the limit for this offense. 

D'Orazio and longtime Offensive Line coach John McLaughlin will be under pressure to make this offensive line workable in time for the season opener. But again, this is a job these coaches were already working on feverishly well before Bagnoli's departure. And there are a good number of seniors and juniors available who may not have starting experience, but they have a lot of time working with these same coaches in this same system. Some of the reports I've heard from camp indicate the new line looks very good. 

Another part of the offensive line equation is who will replace Painton as the primary Tight End. A real positive recently has been the hiring of Augie Hoffman as the new Tight Ends coach, and he has already made a strong impression with the players in camp. Hoffman knows that senior Dominic Busby has the most playing experience to make a claim for the starting job, but beyond that all bets are off. 

Running Backs

Last year's biggest previously off-the-radar surprise on offense was Joey Giorgi's emergence as a speedy, cutting runner who ended up leading the team in rushing. His emergence helped ease the somewhat disappointing 5th year senior season turned in by Ryan Young and it will help the team recover from his graduation this season. 

The question is who will get the bulk of the snaps as the second running back in a Columbia system that mirrors the rest of the Ivies by not using just one primary back. It feels like that job will either go to Navy transfer Malcolm Terry, who looked pretty good in limited duty for the Lions last season, or senior Ty'son Edwards who has lots of experience. 

Of course, this is also a position that will be heavily impacted if Bell takes off as a runner as much as I suspect he might this season. 

Bryson Canty sets his sights on a Bushnell Cup 

Wide Receivers: The Best for Last

I have saved the last part of the offensive preview for the most deep, exciting and talented unit Columbia has fielded in many years. All four of the Lions top four receivers from 2022 return for this season, (five if you include Painton), with two of them earning All Ivy designation last year and a third basically being robbed of that honor. 

Bryson Canty was the 1st Team All Ivy honoree last year at WR for CU, and he is expected to be the best receiver in the entire league this time around. Coming back for a 5th year is J.J. Jenkins, who came out of nowhere last season to earn 2nd Team All Ivy recognition. Senior Marcus Libman truly deserved All Ivy recognition in 2022, especially after his clutch play in wins over Brown and Cornell to end the year. 

But wait, there's more! Senior Wills Meyer also returns after his second straight injury-shortened, but still impactful, season in 2022. Freshman Titus Evans has been a revelation in camp, sophomore Edan Stagg looked strong in spring practice coming off an off-the-field injury that kept him out in 2022, and another freshman, Braylon Gardoni, has looked good too. There are even potential impact transfers at WR in Army transfer Antonio White and Hobart transfer Marcus Lenz. One thing's for sure: the WR's who crack the two-deep on this team will be super talented and hard working. 

I also think the Lions offense will use its running backs to catch the ball more often this season, perhaps as a replacement for Painton as a receiver. Giorgi especially seems like someone who could do some damage as a receiver out of the backfield. 

Columbia needs to use this unit not only to rack up big yards and points through the air, but also to build opportunities for its running game and running QB's when opposing defenses are focusing on the pass. Similarly, Libman and Jenkins need to make other teams pay as much as possible for double-covering Canty.

DEFENSE 

Year one without longtime defensive coordinator Paul Ferraro under new DC Justin Stovall, (who had been with the Lions as linebackers and special teams coach since 2015), went pretty well. The team gave up fewer points per game in 2022 compared to 2021 and it continued its improvement on the defensive line after marked declines in that unit's performance in 2018 and 2019. 

Now, the biggest challenges will be replacing three-year star Scott Valentas at middle linebacker and finding a way to improve the secondary that was one of the weaker units against the pass in the Ivies last year. 

Linebacker U. 

Ever since Bagnoli came to Columbia with Stovall in tow, the linebacking play in this program has improved a great deal. That doesn't mean the Lions will just be able to bank on adequately replacing a special player like Valentas, but the odds are this unit will remain very strong with the players coming back. 

Anthony Roussos appears to have the inside track on starting at the middle linebacker slot Valentas dominated for Columbia the last three seasons. Roussos is not a surprise impact player as he was a prized recruit and has deep connections to the program thanks to his older brother Mike Roussos, who starred for the Lions at WR and special teams. 

But there's exceptional talent at the other LB slots in senior C.J. Brown,  junior Shawn Riley, and sophomore Jack Smiechowski. Also there's depth thanks to players like junior Rocco Milia and there will be a lot of eyes on freshman Mal Mercer who is perhaps the most "highly touted" freshmen in the new class. 

Aaron Brebnor

Primary Concerns in the Secondary

Senior Seth Parker and junior Aaron Brebnor are two of the best players on the entire team, not just the secondary. But it's the other two starting positions that Columbia needs to get solid play from if the Lions are going to cut down on the big passing yardage numbers they gave up last year. Seniors Mason Tomlin and Carter McFadden. along with junior Lucas Mireur figure to be in the mix, but this part of the two-deep remains a bigger mystery than any other on the team right now... at least to us. 

However, it's not just personnel at issue here. Columbia's pass defense schemes often looked way too soft, even in games the Lions eked out with wins. Perhaps with the new starters the Lions will be able to pursue a more aggressive strategy. 

Justin Townsend begins his second year as a starter with defensive Bushnell Cup possibilities 

Strength and Major Experience Up Front

Warning: discussing this unit of the team happily takes a while

The Lions enjoyed excellent impact from its entire D-line rotation in 2022 during Defensive Line Coach Christopher West's first year with the team.

Junior edge rusher Justin Townsend was perhaps even more impressive as a breakout player last year than Giorgi was on offense. After not getting into any games as a freshman in 2021, Townsend brought a ferocity as a sophomore that the Lions haven't enjoyed at DE perhaps since Lou Miller '10 graduated. JT deserved 1st Team All Ivy honors, but had to settle for 2nd Team. The opposing Ivy coaches who snubbed him last season may bitterly regret that this year. 

Making the most of his switch from the O-line to the D was junior Patrick Passalaqua as a sophomore DT last year.

Another under-the-radar find was sophomore Joshua Powell who got rare playing time on the D-line as a freshman last year and put up even rarer stats for a first year player on the line. 

Starter James Knox returns for his senior year after having a good 2022 campaign.

Senior Ben Corniello had another solid year without much deserved recognition, but he brings his valuable talent and experience back to the interior line.

Another senior, Reid Spachman, was a major contributor on the D-line last year and seemed to get better as the season went along. 

Junior John Martin remains one the biggest, and perhaps the most intriguing player on the team. He seems have made the transition to the D-line from the O-line well enough. His size continues to offer an intriguing option for plugging the middle against the run if he can get to a place where he can get into a more regular D-line rotation. Remember, he came to Columbia an even got into a game or two as a 385-pound freshman. Now, he's a 295-pound junior with what looked like some decent speed in the Montclair scrimmage. 

Senior Quentin Autry got into eight games last year and looks like he could step things up this year 

There are still more names to mention when we talk about returning D-linemen with game experience like sophomore Pat Gilchrist,  junior Raleigh Erwin, and senior Reid Englert.

I also think we will see one or two completely new names make an impact on this unit from either the freshmen or sophomore ranks. But I can't really speculate with any named names. 

Special Teams

Columbia suffered from some very bad special teams play at times in 2022, especially in the loss to Dartmouth where the kicking game lost the contest for the Lions. A week later against Yale, the special teams helped turn a close game into a rout from the Elis. 

Miraculously, things improved after that Yale loss right away. Senior Punter William Hughes stepped up after getting the starting nod in the Harvard game and did well enough to earn 2nd Team All Ivy recognition. Senior Carter McFadden also took over the punt returning duties and did nicely there.

Both Hughes and McFadden are back for 2023, but the powerful-legged Alex Felkins is off to Penn State for a grad transfer year. Hughes served as the placekicker in the spring game and looked good doing that double duty, but he may get a challenge at PK from highly-regarded freshman Hugo Merry. 

We could also see new faces in the return game, especially with McFadden likely to get more playing time this year in the secondary. WR Edan Stagg (mentioned above) could be one of those regular returners on punts. Giorgi was the primary kickoff returner last year, but it seems unlikely he'll stay in that role this year. 

Simply put, the Lions enjoyed special teams as a consistent net positive for many seasons before last year. They need to get back there to make a run in 2023. 

The Schedule

Columbia's schedule comes in low in all those projected strength of schedule computer programs because of a lack of respect for all three of the Lions' out of conference opponents. 

But there can be no denying this is one of the most difficult schedules when it comes to Ivy competition. Columbia has to go on the road to play both of the top two picks in the Ivy preseason poll, (Yale and Princeton). Only Harvard has the same burden, and the final contest at the Yale Bowl in usually even-balanced crowd for The Game can hardly be considered a real "road game" for the Crimson.  

The Lions also have to face Yale in West Haven a week after making the long trek to Dartmouth; a brutal back-to-back weekend challenge. 

Speaking of long treks, Columbia's most distant Ivy rivals as far as trip lengths go are both road games this year, (Dartmouth and Cornell).

And before we write off those OOC opponents, I think Lafayette will be at least be the toughest non-Ivy opponent these Lions have seen since they last lost an OOC game in 2019. That game will also be on the road. 

The Bottom Line

If Fabish can navigate this team to a 7-3 finish or better, I'd say he deserves to be named permanent head coach for next year. If the Lions slip to 5-5 or worse, even with the difficult schedule and the sudden loss of Bagnoli, that would have to be considered a serious disappointment considering the team's returning talent. 

Much depends on the offensive line, which could derail the entire season if it isn't cohesive enough to ensure Columbia gets what it can out of a good returning RB and the best WR unit in modern team history. The secondary needs to step things up for the Lions to be a contender.

I thought last year was Columbia's best chance since 2017 to win the title, greatly because of its veteran offensive line. But Green's injury, (which wasn't publicly known at the time), and the pass defense made it hard for the Lions to even post a repeat winning season.

But that 6-4 record was indeed achieved last year with three great wins in a row to end the year. That means this year's CU squad can be the first Columbia team to get three straight winning seasons since the Lions of Gene Rossides, Bill Swiacki, & co. did it in 1946-48. You read that right, we're talking 75 years! At this point, that third straight winning record seems within reach. But a championship run seems like more of a stretch unless a few more things fall Columbia's way, namely a drop-off in the level of play at Yale and Penn from last year.