Tall Order/Short Week

As expected, Princeton has a new star on the D-line: Bakari Edwards

The Lions face the usual big test pressure and excitement that comes every year with its first Ivy game of the season vs. Princeton. But adding to the excitement is the national TV spotlight coming from the ESPNU airing of the game Friday night. 

It's also a short week with that kickoff coming about 18 hours earlier than a usual Saturday afternoon contest. So there's less time for the team, and those of us covering the game, to prepare. 

Let's start by looking at Princeton and how the Tigers have fared so far...

As I noted in my league-wide preview, Princeton came into this season with the best pocket passer in the league in QB Blake Stenstrom, but also faced major challenges from the graduations and transfer departures of many of its best players from 2021 and 2022. 

So far, that concern has proven to be legitimate. The Tigers are 1-1 on the backs of an easy, but not dominating, win over U. San Diego and a surprise loss at home to Bryant. 

Without many of the experienced O-lineman he had protecting him and at least two world class receivers to throw to last year, Stenstrom's stats through the first two games are way down from this point in 2022. 

This season, Stenstrom is averaging just 175 yards passing per game, with two TDs and two INTs on a 57% completion rate. Last year after two games, Princeton was 2-0, and Stenstrom was averaging 274 passing yards per game, with three TDs and two INTs and a 72% completion rate. 

The difference is even more stark when you look at the receiving stats. This year the top Princeton receiver, Luke Colella, has a total of nine catches for 96 yards and one TD. Last year after two games, current Cincinnati Bengal Andrei Iosivas had 13 catches for 199 yards and 3 TD's, and his fellow All Ivy WR Dylan Classi had 10 catches for 132 yards. 

Now there is an added concern for the Tiger offense as the already graduation-gutted offensive line may be without its best remaining player in Jalen Travis, who had to be helped off the field near the end of the Bryant loss. Many consider Travis to be an NFL draft prospect. The breakdown in pass coverage for Stenstrom after Travis left the game was noitceable. In fact, the entire offense sputtered after that. 

On the bright side for Princeton, RB John Volker has come back from 2022's injury with a vengeance. He has a total of 240 yards so far this season and a hefty 7.1 yards per carry average and two TDs. It's been a long time since the Tigers offense featured a single primary running back as its key weapon. In the Bob Surace era, Princeton has usually been mostly pass oriented, with the running load split between a number of backs and the QB. Friday night's game will likely give us an answer as to whether the Tigers will shift down a gear or two when it comes to passing. 

The Princeton defense is performing well, considering it also suffered a lot of graduation losses on the D-line and in the secondary. So far, the Tigers have allowed a total of just 403 total yards and 28 total points. That's compared to last season when Princeton had already given up 496 yards and 31 points. This year's Tigers are also allowing just 1.2 yards per rushing carry. 

As expected, your leading Princeton tacklers all come from its very deep and talented linebacking crew. They are senior Ozzie Nicholas, senior Will Perez, and senior and 2022 co-Defensive Bushnell Cup Winner Liam Johnson.

But a new ingredient in the defensive mix is sophomore edge rusher Bakari Edwards, who already has three sacks and a safety on the young season. 

While Tiger fans are griping about special teams problems because of a failed PAT and a costly fumbled punt snap in the loss to Bryant, there still is good experience and talent in this unit for Princeton. Junior PK Jeffrey Sexton is back after a stellar 2022 season, though he did miss that PAT* and has yet to attempt a FG this year. 

(*for some reason, the Princeton stat page has decided to completely erase PATs as a stat and just put an empty set parentheses to "indicate" the failed PAT in the Bryant game box score. I'm not sure if this is just a coding error or an Pravda-like effort to whitewash mistakes). 

New punter freshman Brady Clark has been doing fine replacing long-time Tiger punter Will Powers, (and I mean long time... it feels like Powers was at Princeton since the 1970s), with a 42-yard average and five boots inside the 20. The problem for the Tigers is that Clark has been busy; he's already punted 12 times compared to just six punts at this point last year for Powers. He was unable to handle two slippery balls against Bryant and fumbled both of them away, but the first fumble was called back on a penalty. 

But stats, as usual, really don't tell the whole story. We've been used to seeing Princeton dominate for most of the last 10 seasons, especially at this point in the season. Even in 2017, when the Tigers were forced to play without all-world QB John Lovett, Princeton still started 2-0 and boasted a very potent offense all year long. It's especially unusual to see the Tigers struggle in the passing game, or at least not put up huge numbers. So many of Princeton's passes have been little sideline jobs, with fewer shots down the field. 

And while it may be tempting to write off the Tiger loss to Bryant Saturday and blame it on the weather. It's important to note that Bryant came into the game without its two top running backs and still had decent success on the ground at times and took care of the ball. Rain or shine, I think the Tigers teams of the last two seasons would have easily beaten Bryant. 

I'm sure none of this is giving Columbia's coaches and players any false sense of superiority, but it should give them a good degree of optimism that this could be the year the Lions break a four-game losing streak to PU. 

From Princeton's point of view, there will be some pressure on the program to right the ship quickly and decisively vs. CU. That could mean that with everyone in the stadium expecting the Tigers to establish Volker's running attack early, Princeton may choose to test the Lion secondary early and often instead. 

Accurate or even remotely accurate injury reporting in the Ivy League is a lost cause, (as evidenced by Columbia WR Bryson Canty being introduced on the video board just prior to kickoff last Saturday as a starter when he wasn't starting and didn't even play... his appearance on the two-deep as the starting WR was also an example of how reliable game notes are), but if we find out Princeton OL Jalen Travis is indeed out of the game, it may change a lot of strategies on both sides. For what it's worth, I believe Canty will play and likely start Friday night, and that Lion QB Caden Bell is okay after almost getting his Bell rung, (sorry had to do that), late in the Georgetown game. Make sure to stay tuned for more non-information on injuries etc. from both the Princeton and Columbia athletic departments.