Overview
The calendar says this is the second year of the Al Bagnoli
era at Columbia. But it still feels much more like we’re still in year one.
And that’s a good thing. In fact, it’s a very good thing.
It’s good for two reasons. First, it proves that there are
still a lot of things getting fixed about the program as a whole. It’s kind of
like getting your house remodeled and a good deal of the workmen are still
there. Second, and this is very important, the still “newish” feel of
everything around the program should go a long way toward eliminating the
almost inevitable second year letdown teams often suffer when they come under
new coaching regimes. Even the 19-20 year-olds on the team, who usually see two
years as an eternity compared to those of us in our 40’s and 50’s, are still
looking at this stage of the Bagnoli era as being something very new. And of
course with about 40 or so freshmen now on the roster, the largest single
section of the team really is in year one.
But emotional highs and lows aside, Columbia generally has
several good reasons to believe it can improve on last year’s 2-8 record. The
bigger question is whether the Lions have a chance to jump into the ranks of
teams that can truly break into the top echelon of the Ivy League right now.
Bagnoli delivered early on the hope to make Columbia a more
relevant team right away. The Lions were competitive in all but one game last
season and they enjoyed a gargantuan leap statistically over their numbers in
2014 and 2013. And yet they still didn’t really overreach out of the gate as
they were unusually unlucky not to have finished 2015 with at least two more
wins. In that sense, perhaps 2016 will be more about matching 2015’s rightful
total of four wins rather than making a quantum leap into title contention.
The team itself is reminiscent of the Oakland Raider teams of the 1970s and early 80s that were filled with traded players, rejects, and some guys the rest of the league was literally afraid to be around.
Despite that, the Raiders had the best record in the NFL during that period and won three Super Bowls behind guys other teams passed or gave up on like Jim Plunkett, Ted Hendricks, Lyle Alzado, and Mark Haynes.
It's hard not to think of those Raider teams when you consider starting QB and team captain
Skyler Mornhinweg, He was originally a Penn State commit who bailed after the Jerry Sandusky scandal. Then he went to Florida and even started a couple of games for the Gators before things on and off the field went south. Then, he transferred to Columbia mostly based on his NFL coach father's relationship with Bagnoli.
Consider LB and team captain
Chris Conway. He and his twin brother
Jackson Conway were committed to Yale until the Elis suddenly were forced to fire Head Coach Tom Williams over a resume scandal. The brothers saw their commitments shockingly rescinded by new Head Coach Tony Reno and they were forced to go to Duke. They both transferred to Columbia last year and both made a significant impact right away. They also meted out what they hope is just the first half of a measure of revenge by participating in the 17-7 Lion win over Yale at the Bowl last season. Chris was especially potent in that game with several sacks and tackles for a loss.
Consider promising freshman LB
Levi McQuinn. He started 2015 as an Air Force commit and even reported to Colorado Springs to begin training camp. But when it turned out his knee wasn't completely recovered from a high school injury, he left the academy and had to spend all of last season back home. Like the Al Davis of old, Columbia took a shot on him and it looks like he will pay dividends sometime soon.
But when it comes for waiting for those dividends from the journeyman players and everyone else, one thing is for sure: Columbia fans and alumni are still in
very much of a patient mode either way. The Bagnoli honeymoon is still very much alive.
Josh Wainwright
Offense
Every truly good team begins with a good offensive line.
Columbia usually doesn’t have anything close to a good offensive line and you
can basically use that fact as a guide to explain the program’s general
futility for the last 50+ years. But this year’s starting front five and key
backups doesn’t just look good by Columbia standards, it’s very good by the
standards of the entire league. Four starters with talent return in NFL
prospect LT Kendall Pace, LG Charlie Flores, RG Nathan Gibbs, and RT Bewley
Wales. The starting Center is likely
to be promising sophomore Tyler
Shonewolf, who was one of the first players brought in by the Bagnoli
coaching staff late in the process last year. Ben Robbins and Michael
McGrath are good backups and freshman Joseph
Scowden is going to get playing time sooner rather than later. He’s going
to be a star.
There’s a lot you can do with a good offensive line, and the
evidence suggests the Columbia coaches are going to take this fancy new vehicle
out for a serious spin with an up tempo offense, screen passes, and confidently
running the ball by committee. And of course you can throw the ball deep, which
was something the Lions did so rarely last season it’s not clear it was even in
the playbook. But that brings us to another strength for Columbia, and that’s
the QB position. Considering all the upheaval last year and the very late
arrival on the scene by transfer Skyler
Mornhinweg, the new Lion starting signal caller did pretty well. And even
though #2 QB Anders Hill wasn’t new
to the team last year, he was thrust into serious playing time for the first
time as a collegian. And he too did better than many could have expected. The
fact that Columbia returns both of these QB’s this season with a lot more work
and time to get more comfortable behind them is an unusual asset for the Lions
and especially unique in a season where almost every other team in the Ivies is
going through big changes at that position. Mornhinweg and Hill may not be a
pair of 1st Team All Ivy passers, but they are more than good enough
to lead Columbia and challenge the best opponents. This is something Columbia
has lacked for at least four years since Sean
Brackett ‘13 graduated.
It may seem crazy to consider the Lion wide receiving corps
to be a positive after last year’s generally anemic performance. But on a
relative scale, it’s a near certainty this unit will be a lot better this
season. The top two receivers from last year, Scooter Hollis and Cameron
Dunn, are coming back. But one sophomore and two freshmen look like they’re
going to radically shake up the group, starting with spectacular freshman Josh Wainwright. Fellow freshman Christian Everett has been impressive
so far as well, and short, speedy, and soft-handed sophomore Tre Gabriel is going to get into the
mix this season too. The Tight Ends are also much more likely to see more
receptions this season led by underrated senior John Hunton. Considering the new personnel and the pace of the new
offensive scheme, it’s really not a stretch to expect Columbia to almost double
its passing totals from last year.
By contrast, the running game put up surprisingly strong
numbers in 2015 that will be harder to match or exceed. But with the offensive
line strength in front of them, the several backs hoping to replace All Ivy
graduate Cameron Molina have at
least a shot to do it. Coming into camp, senior Alan Watson was clearly the
leader on the depth chart, but it appears he may now have been eclipsed by
junior Chris Schroer and freshmen Tanner Thomas and Lynnard Rose. I say "appears” because the actual two deep at
running back has to be the biggest preseason mystery still surrounding the
team. But the very good news is that with this offensive line, anyone carrying
the rock for the Lions will have every chance to let his talents shine. And if
each of these backs has different ways of attacking a defense, the O-line
should be able to give the coaches the option of mixing and matching those
weapons to confuse opposing defenses. The best guess is that Bagnoli, who
favored two running back offenses in his last decade or so at Penn, will settle
on two players to alternate at tailback to run behind the excellent blocking
fullback Jackson Conway. Last year,
Bagnoli just didn’t seem to have enough talent to make Molina share those
running duties in any serious way. This year, he just might.
Overall, even with the loss of Molina, it’s hard to imagine
a scenario where the Lions offense won’t be noticeably better than it was in
2015. It could even be very good.
Chris Conway zeroes in on a QB
Defense
The Lions defense wasn’t just good last year, it was at
times dominant. And if it was obvious that the defense was going to be just as
good this season, there would be reason enough to get positively giddy about
Columbia’s overall chances.
But the problem is we don’t know that, even though almost
every key linebacker and defensive back is returning. That’s because four
essential players on the defensive line graduated and it’s hard to overstate
just how much they all contributed to Columbia’s 2015 defensive success. Gone
are Chad Washington, Toba Akinleye, Niko
Padilla, and Hunter Little. They
may not have racked up a ton of sacks consistently, but they pressured passers
and kept the opposing rushing stats exceedingly low. One key starter from the
D-line last year, underrated junior Dominic
Perkovic, is back along with fellow promising junior DT Lord Hyeamang. But it’s hard to believe
the new starters at the defensive end positions and all the backups will be as
good as the crew from last season… at least not yet. The starting ends should
be junior Connor Heeb and sophomore Mike Hinton. Heeb looked very good in
the spring game and Hinton is loaded with talent, but they both might need
another year to really break out. The backups at the DE and DT positions offer
some promise. Freshman DT Arman Samouk
has been impressive in camp and the enigma that is junior Alexander Holme could really contribute at DE. So could fellow
junior DE’s Ian Tyler and Liam Talty. Getting back to the DT
slot, expect slimmed down, (in a good way), Cole McDonough to see some time on the field as well. But the Lions
will need to figure out the best combination here and fast.
The situation is rosier at linebacker, where Columbia
returns all three starters from a stunningly strong unit last season. Senior
transfer Christian Conway was the
only new player introduced into the mix, while seniors Keith Brady and Gianmarco
Rea had breakout seasons. Of course, one question some are asking is
whether the CU linebackers in 2015 were only made to look good because the D-line
in front of them was so talented? It’s not the worst question to ask, but
anyone who saw how well the three starters really got after the ball carriers
last year would not doubt this unit all that much. The added good news is
freshman Jalen Williams is turning
some serious heads and may even crack the starting lineup this year. His fellow
freshman Levi McQuinn looks strong
and key 2015 backup Cal Falkenhayn
is set to make some noise as a sophomore. This is a very talented and deep
unit. The only bad news is it looks like the Lions have permanently lost the
very good Hagen Patterson to injury.
The secondary also appears like it will be a bright spot, if
it can remain injury free. Senior CB Jared
Katz underwent one of the most impressive transformations in 2015 after a
brazen challenge from the coaches to get tougher in his play. Now, he’s getting
a look from NFL scouts. Junior CB Cameron
Roane made some serious noise last season before succumbing to injury.
Returning senior starter Brock Kenyon at safety is a big strong hitter who has
all the tools. The one question is who will step up at that other safety
position, but it looks like junior Landon
Baty is going to get the nod for now. With two shutdown corners on the
field, the Lion safeties will have to be ready for more action and
opportunities.
Defensive coordinator Paul
Ferraro did a phenomenal job last season and it’s good he’s still around
for year two. He probably has the most pressure on him to maintain that level
of excellence despite the graduation losses up front, but at least his
continued presence provides the stability the new starters need to succeed.
Special Teams
Like the wide receiving corps, it’s hard to envision a
scenario where this unit won’t be better than it was in 2015. For one thing,
the Lions waved the white flag on just about every punt return as then-freshman
Jacob Young was instructed to call
for a fair catch every time. Secondly, placekicker/punter Cameron Nizialek was basically thrown into the primary FG and PAT
duties without enough preparation. Consequently, Nizialek got better as the
season wore on and he got the needed experience. His punting, on the other
hand, was excellent all year long as was the situational directional punting of
Matthew Panton, who also returns.
Speaking of returns, it looks like the Lions will get an
upgrade on that score with either the spectacular and speedy Wainwright getting
the primary punt returning duties or perhaps Rose as well. Watson is likely to
return as the primary kickoff returner, where he showed some excellent flashes
last season. Of course with the Ivy League moving kickoffs up to the 40-yard
line, it’s not clear how many kickoff return opportunities will remain. Both
kickoff specialists Noah Zrgrablich
and Chris Alleyne will have to boost their
average kickoff distances to ensure the Lions won’t have to worry about long
returns this season.
Schedule
With four of the seven Ivy opponents coming to play at Wien
Stadium this year, the 2016 schedule looks generally favorable compared to last
year. Vulnerable opponents like Yale and Cornell are home games this year,
along with a potentially vulnerable Princeton squad. The road visits to
powerhouses Penn and Harvard look like killers, while having to travel to
vulnerable Brown at the end of the season makes that game just that much
harder. A big test will be Homecoming against Dartmouth, a team Columbia nearly
shocked in Hanover last season despite the Big Green’s 9-1 co-championship
season.
Closing
Arguments
Your excitement about the 2016 Lions is justified, depending
on your expectations.
For those who expect this team to post a winning record and
vie for the Ivy title right now, that seems like an unfair stretch for the most
part.
But for those who hope for a doubling of the Lions’ 2015 win
total to four and/or the emergence of exciting new stars on both sides of the
ball, there’s definitely justification for that.
And for those of us who after several decades of watching Columbia
football now just enjoy watching Bagnoli coach this team the right way,
everything about the upcoming season is basically guaranteed joy.
