Columbia Football Preview 2021

 

Joe Green (with his #7 jersey for SDSU) is the Lions starting QB for 2021

Overview

In many ways, the positive impact on the program brought by Head Coach Al Bagnoli was more evident in 2019 than ever before. Even with the catastrophic injuries felt across several units of the team, Columbia still managed three wins including a stunning rout of Penn at Homecoming and a win over Harvard ending the Crimson's 14-game winning streak over the Lions. 

But seasons like 2019 need to be the new low bar for Columbia going forward, not the norm or slightly below the norm. There was a time when 4 win or even 3 win seasons were considered just fine in the Columbia Football world, and we can't return to that. 

That means that this season should be a make-or-break proposition for some of this staff. The Lions must show improvement in the win column and in other areas, or Bagnoli needs to make changes at the coordinator level and maybe beyond. Two straight years of sub-.500 football for an Al Bagnoli-coached team that already reached the threshold of a title in 2017 simply should not happen anymore. 

Yes, we're all overjoyed that we're seeing live football again after this excruciating and heartbreaking COVID layoff. But just being happy to see us play isn't an acceptable position to take when we ask these players to commit so much time and effort to the program. 

Time to step it back up.

The league's pundits are not optimistic about CU's chances. The preseason media poll placed the Lions in 7th place, and respected FCS expert Craig Haley picked Columbia for last. I believe both those results are likely based on a little bit of ignorance about the depth of Lion injuries in 2018 and 2019, but you can't be insulted about a 3-7 team (from the most recent season) being "dissed" as they say. These are the same folks who thought Bagnoli was "done" after subpar 2013 and 2014 seasons at Penn when his Quakers were actually bitten badly by injuries, most notably to QB Billy Ragone. 

My one best argument for giving Columbia more of the benefit of the doubt is Bagnoli's skill and experience as a head coach. The very long layoff and major roster changes caused by the COVID cancellation of the 2020 season remind me of the similar upheaval the NFL experienced in the 1982 strike season. That year, the two Super Bowl teams were the Washington Redskins, then led by the most talented coach in the league in Joe Gibbs, and the Miami Dolphins who were led by the most experienced coach in Don Shula. In the case of the pre-Marino 1982 Dolphins, the talent was very thin for a Super Bowl team but Miami still made a game of it in a 27-17 thriller win for the Skins. My point here is that experienced coaching goes even further in messed up years like this one and I think that will make a difference for the Lions in a number of games. 

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Of course, this entire preview comes under the shadow of the chances that some or all of the season could still be canceled as COVID outbreaks continue to be reported across the country. I'm particularly concerned about some of Columbia's out of conference games, especially Georgetown which had to cancel last weekend's season opener with Marist due to a "COVID pause" in Hoya training camp. Since the COVID spreads on campuses seem to be almost exclusively just an increase in cases and not hospitalizations or deaths, I still think the upcoming season is more likely to happen than not. But we all need to be prepared for some very disappointing news to occur in case national sentiment changes again. 

3 Keys to the Season

QB, QB, and more QB

For all the hand-wringing Columbia fans have done about why the Lions haven't won an Ivy title in 60 years, the answer to that question became very clear in 2017. That was when Anders Hill turned in one of the greatest seasons ever by a CU quarterback and that was the one key difference between that 8-2 season and so many of the losing seasons before it. It's true that Columbia had enjoyed the services of amazing QB's like John Witkowski and Marty Domres in the past with little success in the win column to show for it. But those were times where so many other units of the team were so egregiously bad that even a top signal caller couldn't make enough of a difference. 

Columbia's baseline talent on most of the defense and the other offensive skill positions is good enough this season for a talented QB to bring CU a winning season or better. So this is not 1968 or 1982 when players like Domres and Witkowski were doing all the work. 

Ty Lenhart vs. Yale in 2019

Senior (and all class designations this season need to be taken with a big grain of COVID salt because almost every player will have the right to another year of eligibility in the Ivy League) Ty Lenhart came into this season with the starting QB job in his pocket... pending how things went in camp. 

Well, that "pending" has become a reality and San Diego State transfer sophomore QB Joe Green (who wears #11 for the Lions) stepped up as a top flight passer in camp and won the confidence of the players. Green was thus named the starter late last week and a major storyline for the season is already ready to go. 

Green's lack of relative mobility compared to Lenhart will probably require him to show a quick release style of throwing to keep the offense moving. His role model in this effort should be Princeton's great QB Jeff Terrell, who led the Tigers to the title in 2006 despite playing behind an offensive line with no starting experience at all going into the season. Terrell was a quick release master and even made it to the NFL as a backup after graduation. 

Of course, Green will need WR's who can step up. That means senior Mike Roussos (not to be confused with his brother sophomore LB Anthony Roussos) will need to live up to his #1 receiver designation in light of the graduation of Josh Wainwright '20. Another receiver will have to emerge as well, like 6"4 junior Jack Ertz or sophomore Marcus Libman.

We should still expect to see Lenhart get playing time, and sophomore Gabriel Hollingsworth will likely be the inside-the-five-yard-line wildcat QB specialist in the role Mike Roussos took on in 2019 and Kyle Caster and Josh Bean had before him. 

But this season is riding on Green's arm and head now more than just about any other single factor. Bagnoli worked magic at Penn with transfer QB's like Matt Rader (Duke) and Gavin Hoffman (Northwestern) who were keys to multiple championship seasons at Franklin Field. 

Something like that has to happen again for 2021 to be a winning year or maybe better for Columbia. 

It's really as simple as that. 

Mike Roussos

Front Five Fundamentals

Green, Lenhart, or even Tom Brady won't be able to help Columbia much if the offensive line can't do its job. I suspect the O-line starters will be senior Stew Newblatt at LT, sophomore Zach Mills at LG, senior Ty Worrell at C, junior transfer Matt Klenk at RG, and senior Zach Minch at RT. This is a big group that averages 296 pounds, and a more seasoned bunch at an average age of 21.5 years old. 

But it's clearly taking time for this unit to gel. Green is a pure pocket passer who will need decent protection to do his job. Meanwhile, Columbia's running backs will need better blocking than they saw in 2019 as well. 

Al Bagnoli's offensive lines during his years at Penn were often the best in the league. There were years when as many as three of his O-linemen were named to the All Ivy 1st Team. Why he hasn't seen similar success with this crucial ingredient for football success here at Columbia is a mystery. But it's one that needs to get solved right now. 

Pass Rush Must

Even with the record-setting sack prowess of the now-graduated Daniel DeLorenzi, the Lion pass rush in 2019 wasn't consistent or strong enough in too many crucial moments during the season. Now, Columbia faces the harrowing task of improving on that without DeLorenzi around. 

Cameron Carter

But there is talent to work with on the D-line. 5th year senior Cameron Carter is a very good Defensive End and now he's had the added time he's needed to grow into what was not his original position upon arriving on Morningside Heights. Senior Paul Akere and junior Mitch Moyer have both beefed up significantly during the long layoff and seem poised to strengthen the Lion attack. Junior Cam Coleman was promising as a freshman in 2019 and if he can step it up along with Carter, the Lions can use nicknames like the "Twin Cam Defense" if they like. 

But this is a group that somehow has to find a way to play more effectively this fall. Columbia's deep and talented linebacking crew can make up for some weaknesses here, but not all of them. 

Ben Mathiasmeier

Key Players

1 - Joe Green has to have a very good year at QB. 

2 - Senior Ryan Young looks physically and mentally poised to be a menace on the ground all season. If he can continue to be a tough-to-tackle runner who can break away at times... and make that "at times" more commonplace this season, that will take a lot of pressure off Green and the O-line week after week. 

3 - Senior Mike Roussos is being touted as an All Ivy WR, maybe even 1st Team All Ivy. This is his season to shine. 

4 - Another WR must also step up. Will it be junior Jack Ertz, sophomore Marcus Libman, or someone else who takes the pressure and all the coverages off of Roussos' back? 

5 - Cameron Carter must become a consistent and healthy force at DE.

6 - LB's Scott Valentas, Cam Dillon, and Justin Woodley need to live up to the hype surrounding this linebacking unit that many believe could be the best in modern CU history. 

7- Senior DB and team leader Ben Mathiasmeier must make sure the talented and experienced secondary plays up to its potential. A newcomer to this crew, strong side sophomore DB/LB Seth Parker, will take on that hybrid safety/LB position that the now-graduated Michael Murphy played so well. Parker's emergence could be a key, positive X-factor this year. 

A Look at the Schedule

On paper, the 2021 schedule seems very daunting for the Lions. The top-ranked (in the media polls) Princeton game is on the road, as are the contests against Ivy poll runners up Yale and Dartmouth. But a win in any of those games, especially the week 3 Ivy opener at Princeton Stadium, would fire the season up for CU and the fans. 

The Massey Sports game-by-game prognosticating site predicts Columbia will win all three of its out of conference games and two Ivy matches to finish 5-5. That out of conference prediction of a win over a highly-rated CCSU team in week four looked a little dubious until the Blue Devils surprisingly fell at home last weekend to Division II Southern Connecticut. But in all honesty, CCSU has been a very inconsistent team for the last several years and you just never know what iteration of the Blue Devils will show up on any given day. The fact that the game against Columbia is CCSU's homecoming is another daunting factor. 

Marist and Georgetown, both teams Columbia plays at home, seem like must wins if the Lions want to be taken seriously this year. A still rebuilding Penn team coming into Wien Stadium for CU Homecoming seems like a must win game as well. At this point the other home contests against Brown and Harvard do seem winnable. 

But I have found schedule analysis before week one to be one of the most useless practices we can engage in when it comes to Ivy football. So, take all of this for what it's worth. 

Predicting the Rest of the League

My preseason prediction for 2021 is 

1. Princeton

2. Yale

3. Dartmouth

4. Columbia

5. Brown

6. Harvard

7. Cornell

8. Penn

I like Princeton mostly because of an incredible array of top-flight returning players on defense. The Tigers don't have a returning QB with any real playing experience, but this is a program that has been churning out great QB's pretty regularly. Yale brings back good experience at QB and RB. Dartmouth has a very talented returning QB and a coaching staff with that invaluable experience I was talking about above. 

I'm expecting Columbia to outperform the predictions and have a positive year compared to 2019. I think Brown will tear up some offensive records and make almost every game exciting, but the extra time its Ivy opponents have had to prepare for QB E.J. Perry, (the best offensive weapon in the league), will slow the Bears in key games. Harvard seems to continue to be treading water and has dubiously not produced a top QB in a long time. Cornell finished 2019 strong, but the long layoff will hurt the Big Red's chances to work on that momentum. Penn's roster seems a little bare.