Week 4 Picks

 

A string of upsets left me with a 3-4 record straight up and against the spread, My totals for the year so far are now 16-8 SU, and 13-11 AGS

Dartmouth -7 vs. Yale

Okay, I'm firmly on the Dartmouth bandwagon now. Of course, I've picked them in every game already anyway. This week's game could end up being a push, because I think the most likely scenario is the Big Green beats Yale by exactly 7. But I'll pick them to cover anyway. 

Cornell +27 1/2 at Harvard

The Big Red aren't that bad. They basically play up or down to their competition each week. They will not lose by 4 TDs. But they will lose. 

Lehigh +18 at Penn

Lehigh looks totally lost this year, but something tells me the Mountain Hawks will stay within 17 points at Franklin Field. 

Princeton -3 at Monmouth

Monmouth is a ranked FCS team, but it's one of those teams that benefits from the fact that some of the FCS rankings voters are biased against Ivy teams because they don't go to the playoffs. The Tigers are more than three points better than Monmouth. 

Brown -3 1/2 vs. Colgate

I just think the Bears will have a bit of a breakthrough this weekend. 

Marist -6 vs. Stetson

The Red Foxes got their first win last week, and now they get the perfect opponent at home. 

Ivy Power Rankings

 

1. Princeton

Not as invincible as they looked earlier this season, but still #1

2. Harvard

Quality win at Holy Cross

3. Dartmouth

Easy wins at Franklin Field don't happen very often

4. Yale 

Easy wins vs. Lehigh will come very often this year

5. Columbia

Relatively strong showing vs. Princeton keeps the Lions interesting

6. Penn

Now, even the Quaker defense seems weaker

7. Brown

Still no defense in Providence

8. Cornell

Losing to Bucknell a new low for the Red

Where to from Here?

The question now for Columbia is whether Saturday's performance proved that the Lions can play with the best teams in the Ivies and should be considered a contender (if someone else knocks off Princeton), or if Columbia was just beaten in a close game and still lacks enough weapons to do better than 5-5 or 6-4 on the year.

I don't think we have a definitive answer right now, other than what the typical optimist or pessimist would say after a tough, close game like that. It's possible Princeton was as good as its billing and CU did a great job... or Princeton was only very good on defense and the Lions won't be able to beat enough other teams to contend. 

I thought the game was flat out won by the Princeton defense, which looked like the most sure thing in a sea of uncertainties before this season started and it has lived up to that expectation. The CU defense played very well, and the CU offense was beaten, but not throughout the game. The lack of any Lion turnovers was a bright spot. 

The only pessimism I take away from this game is the fact that CU did have a chance to win this game and did lose it. It wasn't a huge chance, but it was there. The penalties early on were also a problem and the sudden collapse in field goal kicking needs to end now. 

Another thing I see after three games is that the Lions seem to be playing up to their competition each week, regardless of how good that competition is. That's not always a bad thing, but it's scary when Columbia takes on weaker teams like their upcoming opponent CCSU.

Finally, it's clear the offense needs a threat at WR to emerge. I think QB Joe Green has been hampered by not having guys getting open deep enough of the time. Let's see if another week back in action will spring WR Mike Roussos more often. Also, let's see if Gabriel Hollingsworth will return after being MIA for the last two weeks with no public explanation. If not, Columbia will need to work on some new schemes.

Flag Football

 

Princeton 24 Columbia 7

Why Princeton Won

The Tiger defense was extremely tough most of the game, and the offense was effective enough to make that stand up. Princeton's special teams were also strong all day.

Why Columbia Lost

An offense that took too long to get going, special teams that under-performed, and a flurry of justified and unjustified penalty calls negated a strong defensive performance.

Key Turning Points 

-After Fara'ad McCombs picked off Princeton QB Cole Smith on the Tigers first possession, the Lions offense was set up on its own 44 to begin their first offensive series. But Columbia went three-and-out to squander the opportunity and set a tone for most of the day.

-With 1:20 left in the half and trailing 10-0, the Lions took over at their own 20 and began to move the ball for the first time in the game. They got as far as the Tiger 20 before QB Joe Green was sacked to apparently end the half. But a Princeton delay of game penalty gave Columbia a shot at a field goal to end the half... which went for naught when PK Alex Felkins' 45-yard attempt was blocked. 

-Now trailing 10-7 with 5:41 left in the 3rd quarter, Columbia took over after a PU punt at the Lion 45. The Lions got as far as the Tiger 19 before another sack pinned them back at their 30, and Felkins missed another FG attempt to leave the Lions coming up empty. 

-With the score still 10-7 with 11 minutes to go in the 4th, a dubious pass interference penalty was called on S Ben Mathiasmeier, and the CU defense finally broke. Four plays later, the Tigers scored a TD and it was 17-7.

Columbia Positives

-The Lions not only played a impressive defense game, but the pass coverage and pass rush was much improved against a much stronger team than Columbia had played so far this year. The starting corners, Will Allen and Bryan Bell-Anderson, had strong games, en route to holding Princeton to just 119 yards passing. 

-QB Joe Green didn't have an MVP day, but he kept his cool and again never forced any dumb passes or threw an interception. His calm leadership kept Columbia from faltering much earlier in the day.

Columbia Negatives

-There were a number of unjustified penalties called later in the game, but in the 1st half the Lions were rightfully called for several motion penalties that helped to kill the offense's chances of getting anywhere. Columbia ended the day with 10 penalties; each one seemingly costlier than the one before it.

-Once again, wildcat QB Gabriel Hollingsworth was a no-show. We have heard no explanation for his absence. 

Columbia MVP

I thought the CU DB who stepped up the most was junior Bryan Bell-Anderson. The Tigers offense picked on him all day and never really burned him. And for some reason, the Princeton band was able to use a loudspeaker to personally taunt him at different times in the game. None of it worked and he helped keep the Lions alive for most of the day.

Tough Tiger Test

Columbia Lions (2-0) at Princeton Tigers (2-0)

October 2, 2021

Kickoff Time: 1:05pm

Powers Field at Princeton Stadium

Game Time Weather Forecast: 72 degrees and mostly sunny

The Line: Princeton is favored by 19 1/2 points

TV/Radio: The game will be televised on SNY & NBC Sports Philadelphia. It will be streamed live on ESPN+

Columbia Game Notes

Princeton Game Notes

Leading Storylines

1) Princeton was the media's choice in the preseason poll to win the championship, and the Tigers look unstoppable so far. Yes, they have played very weak competition, but Princeton outscored them 95-0 combined and they have to be commended for not letting their guard down against anyone. By contrast, Columbia is also 2-0 against supposedly weak competition, but hasn't looked nearly as convincing as PU. The result is the Tigers are three-score favorites and the Lions need to fight for respect.

2) A key matchup will be Columbia's potent running offense against Princeton's tough defense. If the CU running game is snuffed out, what do the Lions have as an alternative? Will Columbia surprise the Tigers by passing heavily to start? The game planning is a chess match in and of itself. 

3) Columbia's main weakness appears to be pass defense. But Princeton has the RB many believe is the best in the Ivies in Colin Eaddy. How will Princeton choose to test the Lions first?

Key Players to Watch

1) Mike Roussos, WR/KR/PR. Roussos, Columbia's best offensive skill player, will get his first action of the season after sitting out the first two games.

2) Justin Woodley, LB. The 5th year senior had two of his seasons ended by injuries in games against Princeton in his career. He will likely try to shine at Princeton Stadium this time. 

3) Ryan Young, RB. Young will face his toughest test against the Princeton defense. Will he have the strength to drag tacklers and make key gains?