Blew Haven

 Yale 37 Columbia 30

Why Yale Won

The Elis made adjustments on offense in the 2nd half, and QB Nolan Grooms passed and ran Yale all over the CU defense. The Bulldogs also woke up on defense just enough to hold off the Lions.

Why Columbia Lost

The Lions blew several chances to put the Elis away in 2nd and 3rd quarter, then suddenly failed to defend against Yale's long passing game. The offense was strong, but ultimately couldn't keep up.

Key Turning Points

-With two minutes left in the 1st half, Columbia leading 17-6, and the Lions seemingly in control of the game. Drew Schmid's punt bounced in front of Yale returner Melvin Rouse at the Yale 14... and Rouse proceeded to speed along the home sideline for an 86 yard TD return. 

-Columbia seemed to be back in control of the game with a 23-14 lead and 8:55 left in the 3rd quarter. But Yale started a drive from its own 25 at that point and in just two plays, two long passes from Grooms to WR Melvin Tipton had the Elis on the CU 7. Two plays and a 2-point conversion later, it was 23-22, and the Lion control was gone. 

-Columbia missed a 40-yard FG attempt on the ensuing Lion drive, and Yale needed just 7 plays, including one key 4th down conversion, to score another TD to take the lead the Bulldogs never gave up.

Columbia Positives

-Lion RB Ryan Young rose to the occasion in the very rainy conditions and rumbled for 92 yards, including a 60-yard TD run and two other TD's of one-yard each. 

-LB Scott Valentas had his best game of the season, with 12 tackles and two sacks.

-The Lions did not commit a turnover.

Columbia Negatives

-The Lion pass defense, which looked very strong since week 3, fell apart against Grooms and his frequent long passes.

-Later in the game, Columbia could not contain Grooms as a runner as he made several key 1st downs. 

-Once again, the officials hurt Columbia's chances, with a number of questionable calls as Yale was grabbing the momentum in the game.

Columbia MVP

-Ryan Young's clutch performance was a high point of the day.

 

A Seat at the Table

Yale Bowl

Columbia Lions (5-1) at Yale Bulldogs (3-3)

Kickoff: 12 noon

Yale Bowl 

Gametime Weather Forecast: 66 degrees with rain and wind. Rain should end by halftime

The Line: Yale is favored by 1 1/2 points

TV/Radio: The game is available on ESPN+

Columbia Game Notes

Yale Game Notes

Leading Storylines

1) The Lions earned everyone's attention with the 19-0 stunner of a win at previously undefeated Dartmouth last week. Now, they will have to prove they deserve the attention, albeit again as an underdog at Yale. 

2) Which Yale team will show up? Will it be the mostly defensive-minded Elis, who slogged it out vs. Holy Cross, Dartmouth, and UConn, or the run and gun Elis who just won a shootout of sorts vs. Penn?

3) The weather plays tricks on games at Yale Bowl more than almost any other football venue I can think of. If the winds remain strong throughout the game, it could really turn the whole contest upside down.

Key Lions to Watch

-It seems like this game could be tailor-made for RB Ryan Young if a wet field makes it harder for outside running and better for an inside banger like him. Remember the ugly conditions at Wien Stadium three years ago played a role in Young's big game in a win for the Lions over Yale. 

-DBs Jordan Colbert and Seth Parker will likely have to step things up as senior S and team leader Ben Mathiasmeier will have to sit out for the 1st half due to the targeting call against him at Dartmouth. If LB Justin Woodley is indeed able to play, he will also be asked to fill Mathiasmeier's void. 

-WR/Returner Mike Roussos is starting to show signs of getting back to his game-breaking self. If WR Wills Meyer is out again for this game, Roussos becomes a more important part of the pass game.

Key Bulldogs to Watch

-QB Nolan Grooms had a super first career start last week. Can he make it two in a row?

-DL Clay Patterson leads the Ivies in sacks and he looks to add to his lead.

-WR Mason Tipton is looking like Grooms' favorite target.

Fan Looking for a Ride for Tomorrow

An Inwood-area Lions fan is hoping to share a ride up to New Haven for the game at Yale tomorrow. If anyone is going to do that drive, (I am actually leaving late tonight and can't do it tomorrow), please email me at roarlions2012@gmail.com and I will connect you with him. 

Week 7 Picks

 

I went 4-2 straight up last week and 4-2 against the spread. My season totals are now 33-11 SU (.750) and 26-16-2 ATS (.619)

Cornell +23 1/2 vs. Princeton (FRIDAY NIGHT GAME)

On a bad weather night, I expect the Big Red to keep this respectable. But could there be a repeat of 2006, when a high-flying Tiger team suffered their one Ivy loss at Ithaca? No.

Dartmouth +6 at Harvard

Gut-wrenching losses like the one the Crimson suffered at Princeton tend to deflate a team, not fire them up for the rest of the season. Also, I'm not sure about Harvard with one banged up QB and another who is erratic.

Brown +1 at Penn

The Bears will be too much for the oddly-favored Quakers.

Lafayette -7 1/2 at Georgetown

The Patriot League is hard to predict. Georgetown is impossible. I'll side with the Leopards. 

Merrimack -16 1/2 vs. CCSU

CCSU seems to have run completely out of gas. Merrimack is pretty good. 

St. Thomas pick 'em vs. Marist

The oddsmakers are giving no line, so I'm taking St. Thomas at pick 'em to win at home.

The Next Challenge

Kurt Rawlings scores against Columbia in 2019

Is this CU team better than the 8-2 Lions who came one messy loss to Harvard short of an Ivy championship? 

Well, on his Big Green Alert pay site, (which I continue to urge everyone to subscribe to... it's less than half a tank of gas for crying out loud... and you can't follow Columbia's run for an Ivy title fully without it), Dartmouth football chronicler Bruce Wood has some very interesting quotes from Big Green Head Coach Buddy Teevens about this Columbia team. Again, sign up and read them for yourself. 

Taking things one game at a time shouldn't be so hard for a program as hungry for every possible win as Columbia is. With that in mind, the game this weekend at Yale presents a lot of tough challenges. 

First off, even with its new fieldturf surface diluting part of the legendary Yale Bowl advantage I still think the Bowl is a very hostile physical environment. Winds do funny things there and the echoes are weird and the size of the place really hits you much more than similarly huge venues like Franklin Field. The locker room situation is terrible and even the very loud P.A. announcer makes the environment tough. 

Yale has been a very hot and cold team this year, keeping the erratic persona it's had during much of the Tony Reno era. If you're noticing that Yale seems to play well one week, and not so well the next, then maybe it's a good thing the Elis played so well -- at least on offense -- LAST week. 

On the other hand, Yale doesn't seem to have played all that well on defense. The fact that Penn scored 28 points in the game must come as a surprise to all the Lion fans who saw the Quakers at Homecoming vs. Columbia the week before. Yes, Penn made a change at QB. Freshman Aidan Sayin didn't have an All Ivy performance, but he showed some signs of effectiveness. We'll see if he improves over time, but this is truly a league where things can really change from week to week. 

Yale used junior Nolan Grooms as a starter for the first time and he did have an All Ivy-like game, especially as a runner. He'll be a handful for the Lions, who will hope to contain his running like they did vs. Dartmouth's Nick Howard and CCSU's Romelo Williams, (who passed well, but was harrassed all day on the ground). Reno still hasn't proved he can win a championship with a QB other than the graduated Kurt Rawlings.

Defensively, Yale sacked Sayin four times in the game and that has to be a big concern for a Lions pass protection crew that has performed very well all season and doesn't want to stop now. Penn RB Isaiah Malcome had a better day vs. the Elis than he did against Columbia, but overall Yale has done well against the run this year. 

Now to the weather. It's supposed to rain Friday and Saturday over the entire region, and that could play havoc with Columbia's outside running game. If the winds are strong, everything really is up for grabs. This could mean RB Ryan Young's inside power running game will be more needed than Dante Miller's outside attack. 

There are a lot of variables, but this should be a good battle and an opportunity for the Lions to prove last week's shutout win was no fluke.