Now What?

I hope no one construed my last post as some kind of evidence that I'm giving up on the quest to truly fix Columbia football and athletics and replace Head Coach Pete Mangurian and Athletic Director Dianne Murphy.

The point of the post is that while fans and alumni like us SHOULD matter all on our own, we won't get anything done without getting some of the powers that be at Columbia to see the truth and act.

To that end, several higher level meetings are being held this week and at least some of them, our documented and serious issues with Mangurian and Murphy will be addressed.

Dead Giveway

Whenever a person is being criticized and his or her first reaction is to try to counterattack his or her accusers personally... well, that's a dead giveaway.

In today's Columbia Spectator, Coach Mangurian decries people trying to "tear down the program", especially those who come from "inside the family."

Oh, and then we were treated to the following quote which lacks any specifics but is big on condescension:

"There’s a plan in place that’s based on empirical data, and a lot of knowledge and observation, and a great team of people that’s a lot larger than anybody realizes working to make this program and these kids successful.” 

Huh?

Where's the empirical data supporting the playing super-light linemen? Where's the empirical data on deliberately playing inexperienced freshmen when upperclassmen are available? Where's the empirical data that explains why in the 123 seasons of Columbia football, this team was by far the worst?

Nobody is trying to "tear down the program." What decent, non-sycophantic, sane people are trying to do is basically take the car keys away from the drunk. I don't know if any of you have ever actually tried to do that, but it's not like in the movies where the drunk gives up after a few jokes and the hero gets the girl, etc. Usually, you only succeed at getting the keys after the drunk has take a few slugs at you and called you every name in the book. And plenty of times, the drunk still gets away from you and drives away.

So now, we have the equivalent of Mangurian being the defiant drunk refusing to give up the keys and acknowledge what the rest of us can see so plainly.

But the obsession with WHO is criticizing him as opposed to the facts and details of the complaints is a trait all corrupt people with power share. Watch closely and the coming days go by and we still don't come close to getting any explanation for why this season went down the way it did, etc.

Letter/Petition Update

We now have over 65 former player signatories of the letter/petition calling for Murphy and Mangurian to be replaced.

A big name added today was Chandler Bockledge '00, who is one of Wall Street's most elite stock traders. Good traders know when to cut losses and this is one team we should be short selling, not holding into the new year.

But we need more players and former players to help us get the keys away from this losing, defensive, defiant, and harmful team.

It's true we don't matter right now, but that may change in the coming days.

IVY (CO) - CHAMPIONS/POWER RANKINGS

This past Saturday was filled with surprises in Ivy football,. Sadly, Columbia's blowout loss to Brown was the only thing that didn't surprise, (the full review of that game is due out later today).

Dartmouth pulled off the most significant win, beating out mighty Princeton in Hanover with a 28-24 victory over the Tigers.

There were a lot of reasons to be impressed with this win, but the fact that the Big Green did it by grinding it out on the ground, (51 carries versus 18 passes total), was a big part of it. The defense holding Princeton to 24 points was even more impressive, but that was only after it allowed the Tigers to erase a 21-0 deficit and tie the game.

That game and the Harvard rout of Yale, means we have a co-championship in Ivy football for the first time since 2008. By my standards, Princeton is still the only REAL champ since the Tigers not only beat Harvard but beat them in Cambridge. But officially, that's the way it goes.

The other big surprise was Cornell's 42-41 thriller win over Penn at Franklin Field. I did expect the Big Red to beat the spread, but not eke out a win. Congratulations to QB Jeff Mathews and company on closing out their season so well.

So here are the official final standings in the Ivies:

1t. Princeton 6-1
1t. Harvard 6-1
3. Dartmouth 5-2
4t. Brown 3-4
4t. Penn 3-4
4t. Yale 3-4
7. Cornell 2-5
8. Columbia 0-7

And here are my final Ivy Power Rankings, (with quick takes),  for 2013:


1. Princeton

Epperly and the offense just took it to another level this year. It's actually hard to say how good or bad the defense was because the offense was just so dominant... except for a few quarters in Hanover. Epperly comes back next year, and it's hard to believe much else will matter.

2. Harvard

The Crimson finished very strong and with RB Paul Stanton coming back for two more years, things are looking up for Harvard.

3. Dartmouth

My third place prediction for Dartmouth at the beginning of the season may be the only one I got right, but the Big Green really deserved it. I've always said that a QB who can execute the read option well is the #1 ingredient to winning in Ivy football. The two teams with two of the best read option QB's in recent Ivy history had a combined league record of 11-3 this season.

4. Brown

It's hard to pinpoint exactly what went wrong for the Bears this season. But maybe if RB John Spooney had been able to heat up sooner, this team could have gone 5-2 instead of 3-4.

5. Penn

Billy Ragone and the Quakers' luck finally ran out. The Penn offense and defense were really much weaker than expected. Perhaps 2012 really was a fluke. One thing though, this team still never lost its fight.

6. Yale

A real Jekyl and Hyde team this season. It's impressive the Elis were able to win as much as they did without a fully healthy Tyler Varga. But the blowout loss to Harvard to finish things out has to have a lot

7. Cornell

The Big Red was actually the only Ivy team that played exactly up, (or down), to expectations. Good luck to Jeff Mathews in his quest to make the NFL! Good luck to Cornell trying to field a decent team without him.

8. Columbia

This was the worst season logged by any team in the Ivies since the league was formed in 1956. The fact that anyone employed by the Columbia who had anything serious to do with this debacle is still employed is beyond disbelief.

Empirical Data! (for real this time)

I

Already a miracle worker

After Columbia's disastrous 2013 season, (even by the worst Columbia historical standards), fans calling for major changes were told by then-Head Coach Pete Mangurian that "empirical data" proved the program was getting better. 

Of all the insults and delusional statements we had to endure from 2013-14, that was possibly the worst. 

But now that Al Bagnoli and his staff have thankfully taken over, what can we say about the real empirical evidence of improvement from 2015? 

As it turns out, we can say a lot. I admit this post has been a long time coming from me as it probably would have been best to document much earlier the amazing statistical improvements we saw last year compared to 2013 and 2014. Getting two wins in a season after two straight 0-10 records doesn't tell much of the story. The numbers you're about to see do.

Let's start with the real eye-popper. In 2013 Columbia had 519 net rushing yards. In 2014 that number moved slightly higher to 556. In 2015 the Lions rushed for 1,402 net yards, a 170.1% increase from 2013 and 152.1% increase from 2014. Amazing. 

Columbia scored just 73 points in 2013 and 103 points in 2014. The 143 points the Lions scored in 2015 are a 95.8% increase over 2013 and a 38.8% increase from 2014. 

Columbia averaged 24 minutes and 44 seconds per game in time of possession in 2013, and 28:40 in 2014. In 2015, the Lions held the ball for an average of 33:31 per game. That was a 35.5% improvement from 2013 and a 16.9% improvement over 2014. 

In 2013 Columbia converted just 17% of its 3rd downs, and just 28% in 2014. In 2015, that number jumped to a respectable 36%.

There was one offensive stat that fell compared to 2014, but not compared to 2013. In 2013, the Lions passed for 1,524 yards. In 2014, that number jumped to 2,185 yards, but fell to 1,565 yards last year. Of course, Columbia's strong turnaround in rushing the ball was the biggest factor in that but improving those passing numbers will still be a priority in 2016. 

Now to defense. And on that front, all the categories showed serious improvement. 

In 2013 Columbia allowed 5,141 total yards. In 2014 the Lions gave up 4,945. In 2015 that number plummeted to 2,901, which was 43.5% down from 2013 and 41.3% down from 2014. 

In 2013 Columbia allowed 2,429 rushing yards and an even worse 2,534 yards in 2014. In 2015 the Lions allowed just 1,032 rushing yards, down 55.9% from 2013 and 59.2% from 2014. 

In 2013 Columbia allowed 2,712 passing yards and 2,411 in 2014. That was down to 1,869 yards in 2015, a reduction of 31% from 2013 and 22.4% in 2014.

Columbia allowed 402 points in 2013 and 389 points in 2014. That fell to 198 points in 2015, a 50.7% decrease from 2013 and a 49.1% drop from 2014.

In 2013 Columbia allowed opponents to convert on 3rd down 43% of the time. That got worse in 2014 as opponents had a 47% 3rd down conversion rate. In 2015, that dropped to just 27%.

Finally, Columbia's turnover ratio has been improving too. In 2013 it was minus-15. In 2014 it was minus-14. In 2015 it was minus-10.

Just take a second and consider these numbers. They are stunning by any objective measure. I know we all wanted more wins last season, but these statistical improvements are beyond anything anyone could have hoped for. To make a similar set of statistical improvements on a percentage basis, Columbia would basically have to lead the league in every major offensive and defensive category.

So congratulations to Coach Bagnoli, his staff, and the players he so clearly inspired to transcend all reasonable expectations for improvement. Not many people outside of Columbia recognize what you have already done, but maybe now they will. 

Stat Sheet

It was only four years ago this month that after the Lions went from 3-7 in 2012 to 0-10 in 2013, the previous coaching regime told us there was "empirical evidence" that the team was actually improving.

Of course, that was patently false.

Under Head Coach Al Bagnoli we've already seen massive evidence based on real statistics that showed strong improvement in both his first and second seasons.

But the list of 2017 improvements and the percentage degree of improvement in category after category compared to 2016 really takes the cake.

Let's look at the numbers:


-Wins went from 3 to 8, a 166% improvement

-Touchdowns scored rose to 31 from 21, a 47.6% improvement

-Points allowed fell to 175 from 247, a 29.1% improvement/reduction

-Touchdowns allowed fell to 23 from 32, a 28.1% improvement/reduction

-3rd down conversion rate rose to 43% from 34%, a 26.4% improvement

-Total penalty yardage fell to 577 yards from 772 yards, a 25.2% improvement/reduction

-Scoring rose to 239 points from 185 points, a 23.7% improvement

-Passing yardage rose to 2,408 from 2,014, a 19.5% improvement

-Total penalties fell to 60 from 73, an 18.5% improvement/reduction

-Rushing yards allowed fell to 1,270 from 1,559, an 18.5% improvement/reduction

-Average time of possession rose to 33:31 per game from 29:18, a 14.3% improvement

-1st downs rose to 200 from 177, a 12.9% improvement

-4th down conversions allowed fell to 56% from 64%, a 12.5% improvement/reduction

-Total offense rose to 3,593 yards from 3,265 yards, a 10.0% improvement

-Total defense/yards allowed fell to 3,290 from 3,591, an 8.3% improvement/reduction

-1st downs allowed fell to 169 from 178, a 5.0% improvement/reduction

-Passing yardage allowed fell to 2,020 from 2,032, a 0.5% improvement/reduction


There were just three areas where there was some regression:

-Sacks fell to 15 from 17, an 11.7% reduction

-Sacks allowed rose from 36 to 38, a 5.5% increase

-Rushing yards fell to 1,185 from 1,251, a 5.2% decrease

The overall improvements listed above are simply outstanding. The only really rough stats came in the sacks for and against categories. The 5% reduction in rushing offense was acceptable with the graduation of Alan Watson and the wise decision to use indispensable QB Anders Hill less as a runner this year.

Just for fun, let's look at the statistical percentage improvements compared to the nadir of the program in 2013:

-Wins went from 0 to 8, a statistically impossible improvement to show in percentages

-Touchdowns scored went from 9 to 31, a 244% improvement

-Scoring rose from 73 to 239 points, a 227% improvement

-3rd down conversions went from 17% to 43%, a 152% improvement

-Rushing yardage went from 519 to 1,185 yards, a 128% improvement

-Total offense went from 2,043 to 3,593 yards, a 75.8% improvement

-Passing offense went from 1,524 to 2,408 yards, a 58.0% improvement

-Points allowed went from 402 to 175, a 56.4% improvement/reduction

-Touchdowns allowed went from 52 to 23, a 55.7% improvement/reduction

-Rushing yards allowed went from 2,429 to 1,270, a 47.7% improvement/reduction

-Average time of possession went from 24:44 to 33:31, a 39.2% improvement

-Total defense went from 5,141 yards allowed to 3,290, a 36.0% improvement/reduction

-Passing yards against went from 2,712 to 2,020, a 25.5% improvement/reduction

Now THAT's empirical evidence!

Empirical Evidence

Average Final Score: Opponents 40 Columbia 7

Touchdowns Scored: Opponents 52 Columbia 9

Average Total Yards per Game: Opponents 514 Columbia 204

Average Rushing Yards per Game: Opponents 243 Columbia 52

Average Passing Yards per Game: Opponents 271 Columbia 152

3^rd Down Conversion Rate: Opponents 43% Columbia 17%

Sacks Allowed per game: Columbia 4 Opponents 1.5

Conclusion: Head Coach Pete Mangurian is not competent for this job. He does not know how to win, make improvements, or develop players in the Ivy League.

If he continues in his position, Columbia will continue to lose. Do not be fooled into thinking otherwise. This is what we’re trying to save everyone from the players to the fans from experiencing.

The Mangurian situation is simply fruit of the poison tree that is the Columbia Athletics department and the administration at large.

We the alumni, the donors, the former players… all of us demand a change.

Once again, please email Rich Forzani at Rforzani1@optonline.net and let’s get the committee started and armed and ready to address the powers that be and the entire Columbia community.

The Hard Truths

We don't have to imagine how he'd describe Columbia football anymore

When you see a team in a downward spiral, with bad management from top to bottom, it’s pretty obvious.

But in today’s world of timid beat reporters and organizations that can spell the message the way they like, falsehoods sometimes are given a lot more time and credence than ever before.

That’s what we’ve been experiencing as CU football fans as the obvious failures of a terrible 0-6 team with a 17 game active losing streak are still being defended by a powerful few.

There’s a team across the river from Wien Stadium that’s just about as bad. It’s called the NY Jets. And it’s leadership, namely GM John Idzik, did an eerie Pete Mangurian/Lee Bollinger/Dianne Murphy/Bill Campbell impersonation yesterday in a terribly rambling and falsehood-laced news conference.

Luckily, the major sports media in NYC is a little too savvy and strong to let something let that go when it comes to one of our NFL teams.

WFAN’s Mike Francessa just gave Idzik and the Jets all they deserved in this epic rant  on video. 

Please watch the whole thing and just substitute “Columbia” for every time he says the Jets and “Pete Mangurian,” “Dianne Murphy,” “Lee Bollinger,” or “Bill Campbell” every time he talks about the Jets organization.

Then you just might get what we’re going through here.

Now we don’t have to imagine what it would sound like Francessa or any of his peers saying the following:

“You guys are congratulating yourselves on improvement. WHAT improvement?!? You just lost on Homecoming by three scores to a second team quarterback!!”

“Mangurian says there’s ‘empirical evidence’ the team is getting better. What evidence is that? You’ve lost 17 straight games by at least two scores every time! What on Earth are you talking about?”

“Mangurian tells you he’s won before elsewhere. No he hasn’t! He had one winning season at Cornell with Jim Hofher’s recruits and then the kids he brought in stunk up the joint for three years after he left! He was FIRED from other NFL jobs for being a jerk! And NOW you’re surprised that he’s a jerk here? Where was the due diligence in vetting this guy? Where was the football committee? Where was Bill Campbell?“

"You have to hold Bill Campbell and the other decision makers ACCOUNTABLE!"

"You've got players jumping around and high-fiving after one good play when they're down by 30+ points! It's an embarrassment! The other teams find it so east, they think they're in a preseason scrimmage!"

His Decision

He's our only hope


Congratulations to our three All Ivy honorees, P Paul Delaney (1st Team), LB Zach Olinger (2nd Team), and DT Nico Padilla (Honorable Mention).

With Delaney and Olinger graduating in May, Padilla will the sole All Ivy player on the squad in 2014.

Also congratulations to the men's basketball team for their 61-47 win over American University last night. The game featured a breakout performance from freshman power forward Luke Petrasek from Long Island! I sincerely hope this young team proves me wrong and posts a winning Ivy record this coming winter.

As far as getting the change we need for the football program, it's clear the only person who can pull the trigger on making that change is Bill Campbell. And Bill Campbell is the King Lear of Columbia Athletics right now.

My Lit Hum professor taught me in 1989 that King Lear was not only the greatest of all of Shakespeare's plays, but it was the most profound piece of literature in the history of the modern world.

He had a point. And in the last few days, I feel like I've been reading Lear all over again.

I've seen countless emails, very well-written and passionate, not only lauding Campbell's undeniable achievements and contributions to CU football, but they also insist that no one really has the right to question his judgment about Dianne Murphy, Pete Mangurian, or anything.

I respectfully submit to Mr. Campbell that these people are your fans, your devotees, but they are not your true friends. They are giving you bad advice, rubber stamping everything you say, and not allowing you to see the situation clearly.

True friends do not only crave a person's approval and attention. True friends point out important mistakes in a friendly way without taking away any due respect or admiration.

And so while I really don't know Campbell personally, here are three things his true friends would and should be telling him:

1) Standing behind Mangurian and Murphy, both financially and institutionally, is a bad decision right now. It's making you look bad personally and hurting athletics and the University in general.

You've backed beleaguered head coaches in the past, but never in so public a manner. If you allow this to continue, you own this in every way shape and form. Do you really have that much confidence in Mangurian and Murphy that you're willing to put your good name up with them and their records now and in the future... for all time?

2)  If you do choose to stand by them, the students and alumni deserve a real explanation why. Saying that two years is not enough time to judge Mangurian is not a good enough answer when he's just turned in the very worst performance of any football team in the history of the Ivy League. If the COO of Intuit or Apple had a full year of record poor performances, I can't believe there would be much chance that you would retain him or her.

As far as Murphy goes, we all deserve much better than the flat out inaccurate and misleading defense of her record signed by President Lee Bollinger last week. That was a true embarrassment to him and the school at large and it's in your best interest to distance yourself from that statement as much as possible.

Don't you think the students and alumni who have just endured this abomination of a football season, more than a decade without a winning Ivy men's basketball record, and countless other failures deserve more of an explanation or at least an acknowledgement of the validity of our discontent? Wouldn't you be calling the paramedics to check for signs of the fan base's life if we DIDN'T have negative comments as a result of all of this? And aren't you in the least bit disturbed that Mangurian's "explanation" for where the program was going was basically nonsensical as soon as he cited "empirical data?" Aren't you in the least bit disturbed that Murphy hasn't made any assurances for improvement in football?


3) You have a lot of commitments in your personal and professional life. And yet your financial and emotional commitment to Columbia Athletics is unimpeachable. So why NOT allow an outside consulting group to take over the department and make the overhaul we so sorely need? This is your chance to delegate this key job and be the savior, once again, for making the call. The humility and responsibility you'd be showing by doing that would be truly worthy of a legend.

It's really up to you Bill. You can ignore this advice from someone who doesn't owe you money, doesn't need a job from you, and isn't looking to get his kids into Columbia.

But you shouldn't, because it comes from someone who genuinely admires you yet realizes you need a little push to the right direction.

I'm sure you'd return the favor.

His Decision (bumped)

He's our only hope


Congratulations to our three All Ivy honorees, P Paul Delaney (1st Team), LB Zach Olinger (2nd Team), and DT Nico Padilla (Honorable Mention).

With Delaney and Olinger graduating in May, Padilla will the sole All Ivy player on the squad in 2014.

Also congratulations to the men's basketball team for their 61-47 win over American University last night. The game featured a breakout performance from freshman power forward Luke Petrasek from Long Island! I sincerely hope this young team proves me wrong and posts a winning Ivy record this coming winter.

As far as getting the change we need for the football program, it's clear the only person who can pull the trigger on making that change is Bill Campbell. And Bill Campbell is the King Lear of Columbia Athletics right now.

My Lit Hum professor taught me in 1989 that King Lear was not only the greatest of all of Shakespeare's plays, but it was the most profound piece of literature in the history of the modern world.

He had a point. And in the last few days, I feel like I've been reading Lear all over again.

I've seen countless emails, very well-written and passionate, not only lauding Campbell's undeniable achievements and contributions to CU football, but they also insist that no one really has the right to question his judgment about Dianne Murphy, Pete Mangurian, or anything.

I respectfully submit to Mr. Campbell that these people are your fans, your devotees, but they are not your true friends. They are giving you bad advice, rubber stamping everything you say, and not allowing you to see the situation clearly.

True friends do not only crave a person's approval and attention. True friends point out important mistakes in a friendly way without taking away any due respect or admiration.

And so while I really don't know Campbell personally, here are three things his true friends would and should be telling him:

1) Standing behind Mangurian and Murphy, both financially and institutionally, is a bad decision right now. It's making you look bad personally and hurting athletics and the University in general.

You've backed beleaguered head coaches in the past, but never in so public a manner. If you allow this to continue, you own this in every way shape and form. Do you really have that much confidence in Mangurian and Murphy that you're willing to put your good name up with them and their records now and in the future... for all time?

2)  If you do choose to stand by them, the students and alumni deserve a real explanation why. Saying that two years is not enough time to judge Mangurian is not a good enough answer when he's just turned in the very worst performance of any football team in the history of the Ivy League. If the COO of Intuit or Apple had a full year of record poor performances, I can't believe there would be much chance that you would retain him or her.

As far as Murphy goes, we all deserve much better than the flat out inaccurate and misleading defense of her record signed by President Lee Bollinger last week. That was a true embarrassment to him and the school at large and it's in your best interest to distance yourself from that statement as much as possible.

Don't you think the students and alumni who have just endured this abomination of a football season, more than a decade without a winning Ivy men's basketball record, and countless other failures deserve more of an explanation or at least an acknowledgement of the validity of our discontent? Wouldn't you be calling the paramedics to check for signs of the fan base's life if we DIDN'T have negative comments as a result of all of this? And aren't you in the least bit disturbed that Mangurian's "explanation" for where the program was going was basically nonsensical as soon as he cited "empirical data?" Aren't you in the least bit disturbed that Murphy hasn't made any assurances for improvement in football?


3) You have a lot of commitments in your personal and professional life. And yet your financial and emotional commitment to Columbia Athletics is unimpeachable. So why NOT allow an outside consulting group to take over the department and make the overhaul we so sorely need? This is your chance to delegate this key job and be the savior, once again, for making the call. The humility and responsibility you'd be showing by doing that would be truly worthy of a legend.

It's really up to you Bill. You can ignore this advice from someone who doesn't owe you money, doesn't need a job from you, and isn't looking to get his kids into Columbia.

But you shouldn't, because it comes from someone who genuinely admires you yet realizes you need a little push to the right direction.

I'm sure you'd return the favor.