Friday, February 10, 2012

Assessment Time (kind of)



Recruiting Class Overview, (rough draft)

It seems a little premature to give the recruiting class a real grade since we're still two or three players from rounding out our list.

But I do have a few quick thoughts that are important to make even now:

-The class does seem to be filled with more highly-rated, all-staters than we've seen in the past. The resurgence of players from Texas and Ohio after a bit of a dropoff the last two years is especially
encouraging.

-There's also a nice return to team speed in this class. The entire league started to get very obsessed with size over speed a few seasons ago, (with the exception of Cornell), and it may have cost us.

-My concerns are with what looks like a dangerously low number of offensive linemen, especially with some of the veterans OL's who have left the team in the last few weeks. My guess is that some of the existing vets may be switched to the O-line as well as some of the incoming frosh. But as I have written many times already, we all need to get used to a smaller roster because it's going to get smaller every month or so until the season begins. Mangurian is betting that a smaller, but tougher number of players will produce more wins than a numerous roster of 100+ men.

On another matter, I have no updates on Yale's attempts to poach Hank Trumbull or Trevor McDonagh. But I am starting to feel confident that these attempts won't lead to much.




Starrett makes a tackle


Starrett to the City

A very speedy 6-0 170 pound WR from the University School in Cleveland has committed to Columbia... but to run track.

Declan Starrett didn't put up super big stats as a WR, but he was a key part of a team that went to the Ohio state playoffs this year. He also played DB.

Could he possibly be lured to give football at Columbia a try?




Schedule Breakdown and Expectations

Let me make this perfectly clear: Pete Mangurian's first team at Cornell in 1998 was not good.

But the Big Red had a light early season schedule that year and Mangurian made sure his players did everything they could to win the games they realistically had a chance of winning.

The result was that bad Cornell team won four of its first six games, with victories over Holy Cross, (bad team back then), Buffalo, (ditto), Bucknell  and Dartmouth.

After that, the Big Read lost all the remaining four games and only one loss was really close.

The 2012 Lions already look like they will be a better squad than '98 Ithacans, but Mangurian will face a similar situation as far as schedule strength is concerned.

Columbia's first seven games are against what I would call five beatable opponents: Marist, Fordham, Princeton, Dartmouth and Yale.

If the Lions win those five games, and only those five games this fall is there anyone who would say Mangurian didn't pull off an extremely successful first season?

Of course not.

The point is, Mangurian has a track record of taking care of business in those winnable games even when he has a raw group of players to work with.

Getting back to the rest of the schedule, the other five opponents the Lions face surely seem a lot tougher.
The road games at Lehigh, Penn, Harvard and Brown would be big upset victories for Columbia if the Lions can pull them out.

The home game against the rising Cornell team, that will have the added drama of being the 100th meeting between the two schools, also looks tough unless something happens to Big Red QB Jeff Mathews before
November.

As I said before, the X factor is that the 2012 Lions really are more talented than the '98 Cornell team Mangurian had to work with.

That has to make 6-4 a more apt goal for a won-loss record this fall.



The Polo Grounds, circa 1900


Special Game

Speaking of that big game, how can Columbia and Cornell gin up some serious extra attention for the century mark contest?

Lafayette and Lehigh are considering playing at Yankee Stadium this coming fall. A venue like that would probably be a stretch for us.

But a night game might be fun, and some kind of parade or rally on campus the night before could work.

Lots of Cornell alums always show up to the Columbia game when it's in NYC.

I'd like to see some imagination go into the planning for this great game.

Hopefully, it will end better than the infamous 1901 Columbia-Cornell contest at the Polo Grounds.

The Big Red won that one 24-0, AND someone made off with about $1,000 in ticket receipts!


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4 comments:

oldlion said...

Re team speed, I thought that what killed us during the second half of the Cornell game was our inability to keep up with the Cornell WRs. In general, we were not a fast team at all last year. When healthy,Brackett is quick more than fast. Gerst when healthy is fast. But that's about it. Remember that Winters, our best DB last year, was caught from behind by Winters after about an 80'yard run back, and that to me was a first (although in fairness to Maddox he may have been playing hurt)

CULionPride said...

Good teams win the games they are supposed to win and are competitive to their ability in the others. If Columbia can win 5 games this fall (equal to the last two seasons total victories), then the season will have been a success in my opinion. I am hoping for better with an upset or two. Even with fewer than 5 wins, if the team competitiveness and spirit are higher than in the past, in my opinion we are on the right track.

oldlion said...

Correction. Maddox was caught by Winters.

RedTiger61 said...

It's really too early to start talking "expectations" .... Coach M will be installing a new offenese AND a new defense, some players may be moved to new positions, and we may even have a freshman or two in the lineup .... I agree with the comment about spirit and competitiveness (i.e. attitude) as being something I want to see this team demonstrate in the Fall ... I am convinced that the wins will come with discipline and attitude, two things that I think Coach M will demand from these players .... I am optimistic about this team, and can't wait till the Spring game to see how much they have absorbed ....