Every morning on the way to work, I listen to about 10 minutes of the start of the Joe Benigno and Evan Roberts Show on WFAN sports radio.
What I really love about the show is how these guys cut through the B.S.
I mean, they're so good at it that I actually think it would be very good for the country if we had two guys like that covering politics and general news every day!
Part of that honesty is that even though both Joe and Evan are HUGE Mets fans, they don't let that blind them to the truth about where the team is and how well it's playing.
Evan is also just as realistic and introspective about his beloved Nets, as is Joe about his beloved Jets.
We might all think we're seasoned fans who can roll with the punches and still see the trees for the forest, but unless you can hold your own like the WFAN guys, (one of whom is our own football play-by-play man Jerry Recco), you're just an amateur.
And let's face it, we could really use that kind of mature perspective when it comes to OUR beloved Lions.
So, when I look at all the comments about how great many of our
returning players are, I have to say that I generally agree with them.
We do have impressive talent and even improving depth on
this team right now. We have players at many positions who are a significant upgrade
over the average level player we’ve seen over the past 20 years or so.
We have the Campbell Center open and ready to go with all
the added amenities and comforts the program has needed for almost 40 years.
We have extremely dedicated alumni who are donating more
money than ever to athletics and football in particular.
But one thing I don’t think enough of our fans are
recognizing is that our seven Ivy League opponents are all improving too. They
don’t stand still while we catch up to them.
And while every coach has to publicly say that he is only
focused on his team and not looking at the competition, I sure hope that isn’t
actually the case for Pete Mangurian
right now.
Here’s why:
We have great returning players, but we don’t have as many
All Ivy returnees as most of the other Ivies.
We have the great Campbell Center, but can we definitely say
it’s better than the new arrangement the Quakers have at Franklin Field, or the
Floren Varsity House at Dartmouth?
For every 10 paragraphs I write on this blog extolling our
players’ virtues and the general improvement of the program, I have to dedicate
at least one paragraph to continually reminding everyone about what a MURDEROUS
schedule Columbia faces in 2013.
Not every team Columbia is playing this year is better than
it was in 2012. But Fordham, Dartmouth, and Yale look like they will be.
Not every tough game Columbia faces in 2013 is on the road,
but it will be tough to repeat last year’s wins over Cornell and Yale in their
stadiums this time around.
Lehigh is one of the best programs in all of FCS football
right now, and even though that’s a home game, it would be a huge
accomplishment to beat them anywhere.
Princeton won’t catch anyone by surprise this year, but their
defensive line and running game are very strong and the Lions have to play the
TIgers in Princeton this year.
Two of Columbia’s three Ivy home games are against Penn and
Harvard, the other game is against Brown. Those three teams will very likely be
picked as the top three schools in the preseason polls this summer.
Columbia almost beat Dartmouth last year at home, but this
fall the rematch is in Hanover where the Lions have been blown out their last
two visits.
The question we all have to ask ourselves, is that barring
massive upgrades in player performance at multiple positions, where are the
wins in 2013?
Here’s the schedule:
Sat, Sep 21
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Fordham
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Bronx, N.Y.
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TBA
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Sat,
Sep 28
|
MONMOUTH
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Robert K. Kraft Field
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TBA
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Sat, Oct
05
|
Princeton *
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Princeton, N.J.
|
TBA
|
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Sat,
Oct 12
|
LEHIGH
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Robert K. Kraft Field
|
TBA
|
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Sat,
Oct 19
|
PENN *
|
Robert K. Kraft Field
|
TBA
|
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Sat, Oct
26
|
Dartmouth *
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Hanover, N.H.
|
TBA
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Sat, Nov
02
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Yale *
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New Haven, Conn.
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TBA
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Sat,
Nov 09
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HARVARD *
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Robert K. Kraft Field
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TBA
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Sat, Nov
16
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Cornell *
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Ithaca, N.Y.
|
TBA
|
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Sat,
Nov 23
|
BROWN *
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Robert K. Kraft Field
|
TBA
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Okay everyone, which games are we
going to win?
Before everyone jumps on the Monmouth game, remember
that this was a 5-5 team last year that darn near beat Lehigh and has a
returning RB in Julian Hayes who’s been named to the College Football Performance Awards (CFPA) Watch List.
So tell me which games we’re going to win?
Of course, I want us to go
10-0. Everyone knows that. But I’m not seeing one game where Columbia will
even be favored this season.
Does a big part of me really believe that new factors on the stage will change all that? Of course, but we all have to be prepared for what we face beginning on Sept. 21st when the Lions stop playing and practicing against themselves and start facing the opposition.
33 comments:
We'll have firm, realistic ideas about the quality of just about all teams after week 2. Any evaluations before then are pure speculation, not even based on seeing full teams in late summer.
Jake- you are100% correct! I am struggling to come up with a win next year. Like most of you, I looked at Monmouth, however, they will have three games under their best, Fordham, 2 games as well. Can Nottingham bring any of his friends from the West Coast here?
Is it a win if we lose by less than 30 to Harvard this year? Will Coach Murphy allow the band member who lettered in last year's game travel to Columbia this year for his second letter? Will Harvard's Freshman team play in the second half?
... And it is Princeton's Special Teams play that did us in... Anthony Gaffney's kick-off return 1st play of he game...
In year 2 of the 4 year plan... Not much to cheer about; except our fat ratio...
We have a team which outplayed Penn on the road and gave away a game to Dartmouth at home. We should have beaten Fordham, dominated Cornell, and did this with the youngest and by far the lightest OL in the league. The biggest improvement in a program comes in the second year. If Nottingham thought our prospects are as hopeless as Jake and others apparently do, I'm sure Reno or Bags would have welcomed him with open arms, among others. So let's start talking up the season. I'm not thinking about squeaking out a few wins, I'm looking forward to payback against Harvard at home!
why "evaluating" teams at this time is pure guessing.
from Jake last year:
"The top incoming freshmen linebacker is worth getting excited about. Alec Davison is a load at 6-1 and 243 pounds, and he may even be the top incoming freshmen in the whole class of 2016."
If everyone stays relatively healthy, the QB play is a bit better then last year and at least 6 incoming freshman contribute some significant minutes then the wins are: Monmouth, Princeton, Dartmouth, Penn, Cornell, Brown. Beware of the Lions!
oldlion makes some really good points. I also want to add that the overall level of talent in the league is not so great that any of these teams — excepting Lehigh and maybe Harvard — are going to be head and shoulders above the Lions.
We get so caught up in the concept of "favorites" that we forget just how much parity there is in football generally. The Ivy League isn't going to be a ladder where 1 beats all other teams, 2 beats all teams except for 1, and so on. There's no reason to think that on "any given Saturday" we won't be able to get a W.
On top of that, it is very difficult to anticipate injuries, recruiting classes, and the growth of players. (Did anyone expect Marcorous Garrett to even approach 1,000 yards last season? Weren't we expecting the world from Sedi Adebayo?)
This season isn't going to be a cakewalk, but I think it's extremely pessimistic to suggest in May that the Lions aren't going to be competitive in any of their games this fall.
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Harvard was just destroyed by Penn. Bags knows that the key to beating Harvard is often psychological. Reno almost pulled it off as well. We lost that game before we stepped on the field. We will be ready this year, at home.
To the guy who predicted wins against M, D, C, B, and the Ps... Yale should be the easiest opponent on Columbia's schedule. If Columbia wins even half the games you predict, they should beat Yale as well.
With the talent we have at quarterback, running back, tight end and wide receiver, we could easily have the best offense in the Ivy League. Just a question of how well our offensive line performs. Last year, the offensive line just did not have sufficient size and experience to get the job done at a championship level. However, the young talent was certainly there. Keep in mind that the Lions were starting three freshmen at the end of the season. I suspect that the OL will be much stronger this season.
If one of the qbs comes through CU could have a really strong passing offense with Nelligan and Gross (if he is what he seemed to be.) Not impressive otherwise. The Monmouth game is key. Going to be tough opener for CU with Monmouth already playing three games against good teams. At least we can scout them. If CU wins against Monmouth (I doubt it, alas) a three win season is feasible. Lose to Monmouth and we're looking for one upset win, two if you believe in the Easter Bunny. Based on recent events team morale will be a big factor: an opening win will really help, an opening loss would be highly destructive. This team will need great coaching and I don't mean x's an o's. Buenos suerte a todos.
Mitch S. '68
As a believer in the power of positive thinking it really bums me out to read all the negativity on our very own booster site. To Mitch S, Marcorus Garrett, I beg to differ, is very impressive and is going to challenge for the league rushing title.
I agree with oldlion, Monmouth is only ONE game. The season is a marathon and we need to compete every week. I think we will surprise Mitch S.
Monmouth loses a QB that got signed by the NFL as an undrafted free agent. They may have a hard time replacing him. And they went 5-5 with him. They're a wild card, but not at the level of Albany and some others CU has played recently. Should be a competitive game for CU, but by no means easy. Nothing will be easy next season.
I was mistaken in mentioning Monmouth as the opening game. Now I see it's Fordham, but much of what I said about Monmouth actually applies to Fordham. Also, is this really a "booster" site? I think of it more as a chance to express honest thoughts and opinions. I feel that those of us who were involved with CU football earned the right to call them as we see them, and I also believe that's what's best for the program in the end. I also believe that I should identify myself with a user name so people can agree or disagree with me as they wish, and I appreciate other contributors who do that. But, onward. "Hold fast to the spirit of youth. Let years to come do what they may."
Mitch S. '68
It seems to me that many have forgotten that this is The Ivy League .... despite appearances, NO ONE is that much better than anyone else .... who at the beginning of last season would have thought that there was any way that Harvard would not win the Ivy League ... even with 2-3 games under their belt, we have a shot at both Monmouth and Fordham .... I even think we have a shot against Lehigh .... Harvard will be much closer this year at home .... personally, I think we will beat Princeton away ... and Penn is beatable, we've been in it with them the past few years and are due ... the long trip to Cornell and Dartmouth make those games tough .... Yale will be tough if they have a decent QB AND we can figure out a way to slow down Varga .... I think we have a shot against Brown at home ...
How many of you bet on the outcome of Ivy games ... my BET is you are lucky to break even .... if we can pass protect and stop the deep pass, it will be an interesting year ....
"Harvard will be much closer this year"
On that, I think we can all agree.
How could the Harvard game possibly be any worse? Oh, and Yale is going to kill us. They had all three QBs down last year and their running back almost single handedly beat us! It was treacherous to watch!
The only thing that our OLINE has proven thus far is that they can TWEET(no more further comments there).
We have GREAT kicking recruits who are inconsistent at best (being kind). Where are he Matt Pollards, or Tom Boccafollas? Those guys could change games.
I agree, great TEs and WRs, however how is Nottingham going to throw? Brackett ran for his life last year!
On the other side of he ball, I would like to see Childress step up. Good year last year, but still would like to see a standout year.
As far as talent, I think that we can all agree that Penn, Harvard, and Brown are head and shoulders above us. Yale is coming off probably the BEST recruiting class (and transfers) in the league. Princeton, has twice our speed (see Anthony Gaffney). We have a shot against Cornell and Dartmouth. Teevens may out-coach us, so that leaves Cornell... That, my friends is the reality!
I totally disagree. #1 Lion, you are much too pessimistic. We have some outstanding talent on the defensive side of the ball in Padilla, Childress, Olinger, Adebayo, Reim and Carter. We have an OL which is a year older and much stronger. We have one of the three best RBs in the league and a terrific recruiting class. And Nottingham is probably the most talented QB in the league.
OldLion, Notingham hasn't thrown a pass in TWO YEARS. I hope he does well because he was (is) an NFL caliber player.
We have hobbits for DBs who were exposed last year. You can't teach height.
Last year you guys shrared the same blind optimism. We were out-coached in three games. We set a record at Harvard. The Yale game was a joke and our O-Line had a 245 lb starting guard. Granted, he was the best of what we had at the time, but come on...
OldLion, we are in year 2 of the 4 year plan. Please go on record now on what would make this a good/bad season? A minimum of how many wins?
Historically, the minimum standard of success for a Lion head coach has always been a career winning average of 0.323 or better. Coach M is currently at 0.300. Four wins this year would put him over the top.
to Mitch S.
Hold fast to the spirit of thine own youth, let the years to come bring what they may..
in John jay on one of the walls, great quote.
Yes, that gold engraving on the wall of a lounge in John Jay made a lasting impression on many at CU. I remember thinking, "Right now I don't know exactly what this means but one day I will." One day, indeed.
Mitch S. '68
Everyone has Nottingham penciled in as the starter. I don't think so. Coach M has stated that he's quite pleased with McDonagh. The Sheriff will play and maybe move up, but Trevor gets the nod vs. Fordham and it's his job to keep if he can.
No, no, you guys don't get it... I asked what is an acceptable record next year, NOT the disaster "winning" percentage of the previous coaches. It is my understanding from the Hot Dog Committee (AKA Football Committee) that they have Coach M's 4year plan. Fyi- we're supposed to be at 500 by next year. Seriously, is that a 500 team? Hey, I hope it is, but I can only see two wins next year (Dartmouth/Cornell) at best.
My concern is that in year three we will be 4-6 (or 5-5) and we renew his contract (well below the 4 year expectations). I’m sorry, I just don’t think that this is our guy. I hope we win. I’ll be at every home (and most away games) supporting the team, but I fear that we have a cross between Shoop and Garrett running the show… and that is not a good formula.
Regarding Nottingham.. Who are you kidding? The only way this kid doesn’t start is if he has a broken arm. To debate something like that is moot. The back-ups should change positions now. let teh incoming Frosh fill the back-up void.
Back up qb looked lost at Harvard game when he played.Granted he was a freshman and his o-line was horrific and under constant beratement by Mangurian, but the moment looked too big for him at that point of his career. That clearly will not be an issue for Nottingham.
everyone seemed lost at Harvard ... McDonough looked pretty good in the other game he played .... he's got talent ... give the kid a break ... this blog has a few very negative people who need to ease up till the season starts ....
There is a difference between blind optimism and looking at this team through a realistic lens.
What bothers me the most about this Blog (which I LOVE - thanks Jake), is that all of you people who deem me (and others) as malcontents are blind! We called last season early because of he style and manner by which Coach M was coaching, and we were vilified for it. We're calling this season as well (max 2 wins). And for he record, I still think that it's lousy that the TEAM can't dress for home games. It's hypocritical for him to dress everyone for HC and Sr. Day
No offense to the likes of OldLion and LionEsq, but #1 Lion has a point or two. Yes, too pessimistic, I agree...
I don't begrudge any participant on this blog the right to be negative. I just don't share the negativity. Everybody who participates in this blog presumably does so because of a deep seated attachment to Columbia football. And maybe I am missing something here, but if we basically outplayed Penn at FF last year we are not without talent. As far as Coach M is concerned what really does puzzle me is the very negative comments based upon only one season. Wouldn't it be better,for the program if he got a little support here, of all places?
Some of these comments are very sad for the program. Does anyone remember that the week of the Harvard game was the week of Hurricane Sandy. It was a crazy week and the coach tried to make it as normal as possible but everyone was very distracted.
As far as predicting the season, who has a crystal ball? Everyone needs to be positive and encouraging to the entire team. This is Coach M second season. This team has been losing for years. Can you give him a chance and be supportive? Change is hard. Rome wasn't built in a day!
The aftermath of the Harvard debacle: 34 - 17 win over Cornell. That told me a lot about the character and even talent, as well as the coaches.
I'm not negative on the team. I was pointing out that Monmouth is beatable, having lost an exceptional QB from a team that went only 5-5. For a team in CU's position, however, there are no easy games.
I think the talent level rose considerably under Wilson, as demonstrated by last year's and this year's upperclassmen. And I don't think the problems two years ago were primarily coaching. (They bounced back well after the Dartmouth debacle, too.) I wish I knew why CU teams have historically played the way they have under a variety of very capable coaches. I hope the guys can figure out a way to overcome whatever it is, and start to translate talent into wins. They can win four to six games if things break well this fall. If they don't break well . . . ?
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