Friday, April 25, 2014

How to Build an Ivy Winner, Step 1


Dalyn Williams takes off 


Columbia’s recent fall from somewhat competitive in 2009 and 2010 to crashing down to historic poor play is not really an issue of bad players or even bad in-game coaching decisions.

The issue is how the team is being badly structured to compete in today’s Ivy League.

By my analysis, there are three major changes that have occurred in the league since 2000 that make this a much different place to play than it was. Successful coaches like Phil Estes at Brown and Bob Surace at Princeton have adjusted to these changes to compete with the traditional Harvard and Penn powerhouses. Dartmouth is finally getting it. The jury is still out on Yale’s Tony Reno. Columbia and Cornell are failing miserably.

Today, I’ll focus one the #1 key change and look at how the successful teams have adjusted.

#1: Face it, you’re not going to get a great RB or O-line, so you need a running/gunning QB

I’ve documented the demise of the 1,000 yard rusher in the Ivies for years, and it’s still as hard as ever for Ivy schools to produce a 25-30 carry a game, 1,000-yard+ running back. The fact that we had two 1,000-yard rushers in the league last year made 2013 almost like a boom year in a dying market. But even Penn and Harvard didn’t get a 1,000 yard rusher or a single back who came close to averaging even 15 carries per game. League leading rusher Jonathan Spooney had just 150 total carries himself.

But as I’ve said many times this running back drought has been true for some time, the new development in the league is the drop-off in offensive line play as a whole… and that decline coupled with the running back issues has changed the way the game is being played.

I’m not sure whether to blame the whole “blind side” movement or whatever, but the major college programs are loading up on any and all potential O-line talent with a vengeance. That leaves fewer scraps for the Ivies. Consider that Jeff Adams, Columbia’s best offensive lineman of the last 20 years, has made a few NFL practice squads but his level of play at the combines and camps he attended after graduating in 2012 was widely derided by the scouts. It’s to Jeff’s credit that he put in the work to keep his shot at the NFL alive, but it says something that a 3-time 1st Team All Ivy player was so far behind the pack.

Harvard’s amazing recruiting advantage has indemnified the Crimson from this reality for the most part, but all the other schools – even Penn – have to face it. And all the other schools, except for Cornell and Columbia have responded with a focus on more mobile QB’s who can help make up for spotty pass protection and run blocking all at once.

Penn’s recently graduated Billy Ragone was a good example of all of this. Frankly, he wasn’t the greatest runner or passer. But put together, he was a good enough threat to run or pass effectively enough of the time to make the Penn offense go. Without a stellar RB or WR during his tenure, (Penn did have a great season from RB Lyle Marsh in 2009, but Ragone was out most of that year), the Quaker still won championships.

Princeton’s current QB, Quinn Epperly, is a better passer than Ragone and a decent runner. He’s the biggest reason the Tigers tied for the title last year.

Dartmouth’s Dalyn Williams had the luxury of having a 1,000 yard rusher behind him, but his combined running and passing ability was the biggest reason why the Big Green really emerged as serious contenders last season and got better week after week. Dartmouth’s win over Princeton in week 10 should serve as a message to the rest of the league for 2014.

Brown’s long-time response to the O-line reality has been a little different. Instead of going for mobile QB’s, the Bears have opened up their passing attack even more to include a lot more short passing. But Spooney’s super season last year helped Brown avoid the worst of what could have been a tougher year. As it is, the Bears still did not have a winning Ivy record.

Cornell has been avoiding making this crucial adjustment for an understandable reason. The Big Red had a super pocket passer in the traditional sense with Jeff Mathews and it didn’t make sense to pull him from the lineup for any reason. But now that Mathews is gone, Head Coach David Archer is going to have to show whether he’s figured out the playing field.

That leaves us with Columbia’s Head Coach Pete Mangurian, who is steadfastly insisting on putting together a pocket passing offensive attack. I’m not sure if he doesn’t recognize the O-line realities at Columbia and everywhere else, or if he just refuses to accept them. But so far, the results are a 3-17 overall record, an unnecessarily restrained Sean Brackett in 2012, and the worst performance of any Ivy football team in history in 2013.


I’m not saying that players like Epperly, Williams, and Ragone grow on trees because they don’t. But refusing to even go after players like this is disturbing. It’s one thing to buck the trends for winning in the Ivies when you still are competitive like Brown. But it’s something else entirely when you’re so far behind the pack. 

20 comments:

Anonymous said...

I do see the pattern with declining RB numbers but mobile QBs are not a direct response to the inability get a decent OL in place. It has always been about innovation and luck of the recruiting trail. With the right kind of athlete, teams have the luxury of of installing a more read-option type offense when they land the type of QB who can make it work. Case in point is when Ayo Oluwole was leading the CU O. Guys like him and Williams at Dmouth are even more rare than the 1000 yd rusher.

I don't see it as a trend but more of a decision. You can even switch guys up from DB to QB. It's not like these guys don't have the smarts or ability to manage an offense. Sometimes you can't find a recruit who is a dual threat QB out of the box. You have to invent one. These guys are great athletes. It is coaches with limited views who are the problem. They don't adapt and therefore they don't win. You are right, Teevens is wising up but only after almost losing his job after a disastrous season.

I never liked Ragone. It always seemed he was barely lucky enough.

BTW, Cornell has Mathews-like backups. I don't think they will be changing up their pocket approach either.

Big Dawg said...

Nice BB split @ Penn.
Tomorrow tells all.

RLB said...

Why did Jake reveal the secret for anyone to see?

Or, does anyone think the Columbia coaches don't know any of this?

And, does the post before this addressed to FYs help in recruiting?

oldlion said...

I think alas wingman meant MA rather than Ayo. One was an athlete who lined up at QB and the other was a pure power runner. If MA had stayed healthy we could have won a championship behind him. I really thought that Norries had it figured out until he stayed with his bonehead OC too long and the wheels fell off.

WOF said...

RLB, our coaches have not shown us much aptitude at all the past two years.

Chick said...

It seems to me Columbia has much to offer educationally and career-wise to any recruit. Sniping about a 15-20 minute bus ride on Riverside drive is petty....walking to some classes takes as long or almost. And once at Baker Field, the facilities are fine.
We might not get "the Lions' share" of recruits but there is talent there. It seems to me the staff is called "coaches" for a reason. They are supposed to recruit as well as they can, and then coach and mold those players into a unit that can play effectively.

The college and admissions people, the facilities, coaches and administrators, and yes, the players especially, all have roles.
I haven't a clue how it will work out but I don't discount any Lion team before the season, bringing me to my usual trite bottom line: We'll find out on the field.

But remember that former Head Coach Bob Shoop began his term with the motto "No excuses!" and it seems high time that this is applied to all the constituencies mentioned above. Oh, and fans too. A decent crowd should be expected at every home game, not only Homecoming. I think it could make a
difference. We need to put all the parts together.

oldlion said...

Jake, I don't know what to make of this but an administration insider close to the program who is hardly a Mangurian apologist told me late last week that we have a great incoming class.

Jake said...

Hey, I hope it's true.

Big Dawg said...

Off the football treadmill for a bit.........

How exciting is our Baseball team?
Down to a 4-game showdown with Penn for the Div lead and they split, leading to a one-game playoff next week. This after setting a school record 15 game winning streak.
Fantastic.

Now we root for them to take the tie-breaker and go on to their 3rd straight Ivy title. Go Lions!

Nice to have something to cheer about.

oldlion said...

With Speer on the mound I like our chances. Two shutouts in a row.

Anonymous said...

I don't know about greatness in any CU football freshmen but based on historical success in selectively utilizing freshmen talent it is obvious that strategy works very well. Jameis Winston anyone? That kid is not a "great" player but can there by any argument he is a great fit for Florida State's offense? Dual threat, receivers running precise routes and making full use of athleticism at every turn. You pass when you need to and keep the D off balance, forcing them to gamble on what to expect next.

Am I saying CU has FSU caliber talent to work with? Doy, of course not. I'm saying you put freshmen with the skills sets you need to full use. If we get conservative decisions, this team is not going to make it.

I say we are at defcon status and I hope our somewhat feeble coaching staff snaps to and gets with the program. JV team be damned.

RLB said...

WOF: The staff's first year wasn't all that bad, 3-7. And, the coaches may have had something to do with getting the team over the Harvard debacle to beat Cornell.

Anonymous said...

Same old limited argument RLB. You are quite a sad specimen. You wouldn't even be any help if you were in the PR dept.

alawicius said...

Very nice video on Cameron Roane, the freshman DB with a lot of speed that Coach "Pat" said would become an outstanding RB. Video shows some of his plays on offense, as well as his off-the-field accomplishments.

http://www.highschoolot.com/extra_effort/video/13013308/#/vid13013308

oldlion said...

If as advertised his 40 time really is 4.39 he is easily the fastest man on the team and perhaps in the league. Seeing is believing.

Anonymous said...

Nice write up Jake

RLB said...

alswingman: since you can't refute my points, you attack me personally.Points to me

Anonymous said...

Now that is rich. Your points have been dismissed, refuted and laughed at all over this blog.

Summary: Those 3 wins were weak against weak teams at weak points, not by the grace of coaching acumen. I'm not recapping the finer points since you don listen. You are not even a shill. You are just one of those weak minded folk.

WOF said...

RLB, Its as if you are creating new realities with regard to the team.

We were awful that season and we beat two other awful Ivy teams.

Those that view a 3-7 season that included a 69-0 loss to a league opponent as not "all that bad" are the types who have permitted the admin to inore our football program for 60 years

Jake said...

There is nothing to defend this coaching staff other than a weak argument to give them more time.