The Massey Ratings service has simulated the upcoming Ivy
football season and it predicts not only another 0-10 season, but it sees the Lions losing every game
once again by at least 10 points.
It agrees with my assessment that the week nine game at home
against Cornell is our best chance to record a victory, but it only puts the
probability of that at 23%
This is just the latest example of an important point I’m
trying to make and have been trying to make since November: even with Columbia
Football’s dismal last 50 years of history as a marker, this is the worst the
CU football program has ever been.
This is not just a rough patch or a particularly lean
period. This is a program off the rails being run by a completely clueless
coach and staff. And it’s particularly dismaying to see so many people from the
administration on down to long-time fans deluding themselves about the truth
here.
Columbia will not be remotely competitive in even one game this
season. This is not a “wait and see” moment. We have worse than a JV roster
with worse than JV experience going up against an ever-improving league. It’s
not a prediction, it’s simply putting two and two together.
Many more than the normal number of players will be injured.
Attendance will fall much lower than it already is.
The program will find it harder and harder to survive.
This isn’t a joke. I have nothing to gain financially or in
any other way from ousting a coach or an administrator. I’m trying to tell you
the house, as shabby as it’s been since 1961, is burning down. And shamefully,
a good many of you are telling me to be quiet about it.
Another argument I hear from people who are not A.D. shills
or deluded is this: “there’s nothing you can do about it, so just let it go.”
That argument may be right, but I care too much about the
program to let it die without a fight. And die it will. Don’t fool yourselves
into thinking that the administration wouldn't love to find ways to eliminate
football and still somehow remain a part of the Ivy League. Who’s to say the
rest of the Ivy presidents won’t one day accommodate that “dream?”
Stick your heads in the sand if you must, but it appears our
demand for a more competitive team during the Norries Wilson years was answered by giving us a much worse
coaching regime just to put us in our place. That’ll teach us not to demand or
even hope for a championship in our lifetimes. That’ll teach us not to speak
up. That’ll teach us to do anything but donate more money.
So the next time anyone sees Head Coach Pete Mangurian, these are the ONLY things anyone should be saying to him and they're all questions:
So the next time anyone sees Head Coach Pete Mangurian, these are the ONLY things anyone should be saying to him and they're all questions:
1)
Cut the “we want to win every game” crap... tell us
which game or games in 2014 we’re going to win.
2)
Will the team be better this season and why or
why not?
3)
Why is team discipline still so bad, from bad
grades to public brawling, to continued social media outrages? Aren’t you supposed to be some kind
of tough disciplinarian? You never see this kind of behavior from the baseball
or basketball teams. What would you say if we decided to re-post every one of the stupid and offensive Tweets your players keep putting out there every day?
26 comments:
Jake, that sounds exactly how the Administration in Washington, D.C., works, including the eerie "coincidence" that it's headed by a Columbia BA who parachuted into Morningside for two years to cop an Ivy degree.
There's a beginning, middle and end to every man-made disaster and we're witnessing two intertwined ones at the same time.
And just like DC, we're seeing an enabling, "Praetorian Guard" at work. The few longtime fans and other apologists who insist the emperor actually does have some clothes.
Jake, I completely agree with your "3 questions".
While I am prepared to wait and see actual results (as if I have a choice), my expectations are as you describe. I do note, however, the unexpected success of Basketball this past season after being picked to finish dead last. So there is always hope. Let's not paint ourselves into a credibility corner by predicting 0-10
I don't truly believe there is a deliberate conspiracy, but I do believe, as you say, there is an elitist "Praetorian Guard" mentality among the BOT, the Admin and the AD dept. The simple comparison I posit is this: "How would CU react if their Journalism school achieved the same comparative results as athletics?"
Clearly, the reaction would be immediate and drastic, so that demonstrates the care they (don't) have for sports.
Regarding internal discipline (Twitter, etc) there is simply no excuse for what has been going on. Rather than forcing the kids to stonewall you and others who seek info, the staff should be riding herd on their cell phones to prevent more embarrassment.
Quite frankly, I believe we are being heard, along with a great number of other alums who care to CU sports. I also believe changes are coming sooner rather than later. But there is no way the admin will ever admit they were pressured. That would be too democratic, and what we have in CU is an oligarchy. Not for nothing was this called King's College.
Basketball two years ago is not an apt comparison. We were close in a lot of games that year. The Obama administration is a better analogy.
I was dismayed by the bad predictions for basketball last year, but 2 years ago, many had us to win the league. So, it evened out. But all the usual models should be thrown out with this football team. This is a JV squad being passed off as a varsity team. Any competitiveness would be a miracle. Any win would be impossible.
If we didn't keep losing established players to unexplained attrition it would help me have more confidence. I do hold out a glimmer of hope there is a stud or 2 that will emerge to give the team a chance. I just don't see the defense improving enough. The offensive ineptitude is what is most troubling. I would be somewhat appeased if they could at least sustain drives this season.
We have no OL at all. That's like saying we have no helmets. Seriously, we shouldn't even be allowed to play.
Dawg, i don't want to turn this into a political discussion.
Your motives and mine on this blog are identical--winning
Columbia sports programs across the board, especially in football though I'm also a huge fan of basketball, baseball, soccer, tennis and more, plus all women's teams.
But you picked a bad analogy, one that's personal for me, when you mentioned the j-school. I know you were making a hypothetical analogy but as someone with some expertise, I think American journalism basically died a while back, even in normal ethics and mechanics, not to mention principles. A minor animation of journalism is on life support, but it's not an iron lung....more like a breathing straw stuck into the surface of a poisoned swamp.
Why does that make me think of football? But like you, of course I'll wait and see, the new season is rushing toward us, and nothing is going to happen until this season unfolds.
In other news...
What other football camp for high school kids guarantees those kids will be able to beat the on-site college varsity by the end of the session?
https://lionsfootballcamp.com/
I just don't see why the CU administration would like to "do away with football."
There might be some money saved initially but, in the long run, donations would likely take a hit from sports-loving Columbians, and I don't refer to just the people who contribute or read this blog.
Maybe I'm just naive or living in the past, but there was a legacy of greatness here, something that should be ignored at the administration's peril.
All that's true DOC, but if the team has another 30+ game losing streak, (we're at 11 right now), and we have multiple players flunking out and getting into more and more issues with campus security, there will be people screaming for the program to be scrapped.
Jake,
My crystal ball is a little cloudy when it comes to CU football, but I see one less PA touchdown and one more PF
TD per game. May not equate to any wins, but it will put us in a lot of games near the end.
I'll start piling on if the season kicks off in the same fashion that they left it. For now, I want to believe somehow the OL can be salvaged and despite all odds, what if the offensive brain trust steps out of their delusions and actually develops a strategy around their personnel that shows promise. We have already decided Pete is too stubborn to change his ways but he has to. This is the biggest challenge of his coaching career and he has to do something different. Elizondo is a much weaker link than Pete and they do not have anyone else on staff with a clue how to innovate an offense. So it is on Pete to direct that transformation.
Football is not going to be dropped. We cannot stay Ivy unless we compete in football. So not even Bollinger in his final two years is going to have that as his legacy. Of course, maybe Bollinger will stay for three more years, so that he can be succeeded by Obama, who will do a reverse Eisenhower.
Does anyone know how Ivy conference sports are facilitated? Is there a committee with bylaws and they speak regularly or annually about issues? How would they go about just ousting CU football without CU knowing such a sentiment was afoot? There is a measure of cordiality and professionalism among the ADs and Presidents, powers that be. CU is just horrid at football for decades on end, not all of their sports.
So if it is a matter of CU being told "get your football program in order so you are not a running joke every year" then it must be a very professional type of mandate. Is it in the bylaws that each team has to have a competitive team or just "a" team? They just invested millions into a stadium and facilities so what are the specifics to on the field success in conference bylaws (if they exist?)
Jake, you have to keep in mind that the Staff that will be running the CU football camp is that same staff that we are stuck with. Regardless if we have 4-Star recruits at the camp, they will leave lighter and with only 2-Stars. If, however, you were discussing Band Camp, then it would be a more appropriate analogy. They could beat us!
Every coaching staff has camps. It is a community outreach and a pretty good idea. We are looking at from an adult perspective but for HS kids it is a big deal to get coaching outside of your immediate surroundings. Not for recruiting but just for ego. I could not get enough of basketball camps as a kid. Some were expensive but well worth it. Better competition and training than you get in HS.
Jake great point. In coaching there are 2 sayings "the grass is always greener" (usually used for assistant coaches who think there are better jobs they can get)(in this case it's alumns who thought they could better than Norries) & "be careful what you wish for"...
It now seems obvious that the Norries Wilson situation was not properly handled. What should have happened is now apparent: Norries should have been told to replace his offensive coordinator and perhaps others. He should have been given a one year extension and a mandate to replace the rest of his staff if he so chose. And he should have been given a mandate to either win 5 games or else he would be terminated. His teams were competitive, he had no attrition, and the alumni base really liked him. Right now barring a miracle we will be back at square one come November.
Agree.
My hypothesis: the Admin attitude is "we listened to you; we fired Norries; now you have to accept the results. We did what we had to, you don't like it, too bad. Now shut up."
They check off the "boxes", but they don't follow thru on performance. It's as if they want to be able to show they did the right things, but they don't really care about actual results.
Something happened with Norries his final 2 seasons that triggered a death spiral in recruiting and results. My take is he seems like a moody guy. I have known many people like that when something triggers an attitude, it sticks there. When that happens, best to move on. I don't know if I have a correct read on his attitude or personality but it just seems when coaches hit that moment, it is hard to recover from it. Thus far, I see Pete pushed to the brink of that moment. He may have already eclipsed it but he is doing an outstanding job of disguising it. He's got a staff barely worth a brick to help him dig out of the hole.
We have a lot of,players who have sacrificed their summers to stay I the City and work out together. For their sake I,would like to see less comment telling them in essence that they are waiting their time because we have no chance of winning or even of being competitive this season. Of course, maybe all of this negativity will spur them on.
PS, pardon all the spellcheck typos in my last post.
"every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats."
Mencken
We didn't get all that we wanted. They gave us a new coach but not the guy the majority of us wanted...Pete came out of nowhere and we all had to convince ourselves he was a good hire afterward.
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