I've already posted my prediction of a second place finish for the Lions a few times, plus my thoughts on how this is the most optimistic the program has been going into a season since probably 1961.
So the following preview will briefly look at some key position-by-position factors, as well as some intangible issues and coaching analyses.
Quarterback
Even after just four starts last year, we know that junior Josh Bean is a very good QB who can win tough games. He probably sacrificed himself too much in the CCSU game, missing two starts as a result, while the injury that ended his season vs. Dartmouth was not the result of any crazy running or bad gambles. Under pressure, he usually made good decisions and his lone pick of the year was as much the result of his receiver falling down that anything else.
Who will back Bean up is in question. Sophomore Ty Lenhart got the most work at QB by default last season after all the injuries. He showed some nice poise, but threw too many risky passes as you'd expect from a freshman. I expect him to resume his duties as the running and goal line QB, but he might be supplanted on the depth chart by sophomore John Foreback.
The Lions can win with Bean, maybe even win it all. Without him, they're probably at best a solid 6-4 or 7-3 team again barring other injuries. If that means yanking Bean out of games the Lions have wrapped up a little early to protect him, so be it.
Running Back
Expect sophomores Ryan Young and Dante Miller to get the most work here, with senior Lynnard Rose getting a lot of throws out of the backfield and the occasional carry to cross defenses up.
The Ivies have moved so far away from a ground and pound offense that any kind of consistent running attack Columbia mounts this year will make them much harder to beat. Perhaps the template to copy is Yale's 2017 title run that featured the most balanced run/pass offense most of us had seen in years in this league.
The added urgency on this is the need to protect Bean, who would logically be most helped to avoid injury by needing to throw less often.
Columbia has really never had as much talent at RB in the modern era of Ivy football. They've had individual stars like Doug Jackson and Johnathan Reese, and even a great tandem in 1988 with Greg Abbruzzese and Solomon Johnson. But this is a deep crew that could make a difference all on its own.
Wide Receivers
The Lion season could also come down to just how many games seniors Josh Wainwright and Ronald Smith start and finish together. When they're both in the lineup, their stats and the teams W-L record are incredible.
The other key factor is who will emerge as the third WR, a slot that could be like walking behind a Vegas slot machine winner with a hole in his pocket thanks to all the attention on Wainwright and Smith. Senior Kaleb Pitts put in some gutty performances last year and would be a great choice, but look for sophomore Mike Roussos to sneak into this role and have a big year.
The tight ends are reportedly going to play a much bigger role in the pass game, but we've heard that before. Getting them more involved seems to have as much to do with health issues as game planning. I think we'll see some players other than senior Rory Schlageter and junior Casey Mariucci get into this mix.
Offensive Line
It looks like the key trio of senior Parker Coogan, junior Josh Kaminski, and senior Joseph Scowden are going to anchor this line. There's a lot of game experience among the other players, but it's not clear who's healthy and who's starting.
More importantly, the OL really needs to step things up in the run blocking game or risk squandering this enormous talent the Lions have at running back. There can't be a repeat of the last year's loss at Penn, when 2-3 very crucial and very short yardage situations ended up in failure. Pass protection improved greatly in 2018, and that needs to avoid a 2019 backslide.
Defensive Line
At the end of last season, the interior D-line was one of the top areas of concern for the Lions. Heck, it is for just about every Ivy team as the DT position has been the hardest one to recruit in the Ivies for well over a decade. But the Lions are looking better in this specific area thanks to some decent development in the weight room and in camp. But the real strength here is at DE, where senior Daniel DeLorenzi needs to stay healthy again like he did last year and everyone is buzzing about junior Cameron Carter and his progression after shifting from the linebacker position. Columbia needs
Columbia's opponents will surely test the interior line this year with, how well the Lions answer those challenges will play a big role in the season's outcome.
Linebackers
Every year of the Bagnoli era has seen the Columbia linebacker unit excel, usually beyond expectations. The Lions have a lot of talent here, but preseason injuries may cut back on the total playing time for some of the projected starters. Co-Captain Michael Murphy will need to continue his recovery from his injury late in the 2017 season to keep this group as effective as possible. And it will be the linebackers who are likely to play a major role in helping shield any issues on the defensive front.
Secondary
Columbia's opponents will test the two new safety starters, but the returning experience and talent at CB will be a big help here. Sophomore Fara'ad McCombs may be the key to it all, as he adds a major X-factor with his still developing abilities. Senior CB Ben McKeighan and junior Will Allen need to stay injury free.
Special Teams
Overall, this remains a general strength for Columbia. But questions remain. The biggest is whether senior kicker Oren Milstein will return to his freshman year level or his more modest effectiveness from his sophomore year. Another big question is whether freshman Alex Felkins will do more than kickoffs this season. The punting and return games look like major strengths for the Lions.
Perspectives on Bagnoli
Last year, Columbia posted its first back-to-back winning seasons since 1961-1962, (56 years).
This year, the Lions go for their first back-to-back-to-back winning seasons since 1945, 1946, 1947, (72 years).
Head Coach Al Bagnoli enters this season with a 19-21 overall record at Columbia. A 7-3 or better record puts him above .500 and would make him the first Columbia football coach with a winning record since Charles Crowley, who ended his Lions career on the sidelines way back in 1929. Yes, that's 90 years ago. Note that even the great Lou Little did not rack up a winning overall record during his 27 years at the helm at Columbia, mostly because of some weak Lions teams at the end of his career.
Bottom Line
The Lions now look like a team and a program completely converted to one of overall excellence now by Bagnoli. The first two seasons, which saw losses in nearly a dozen winnable games, have been supplanted by the last two seasons where really only two winnable games eluded the Lions. Depth is now the norm at a number of key positions and Columbia, despite a poor 6th place finish in the preseason poll, seems poised to contend for the Ivy championship.
No comments:
Post a Comment