I remember writing after the 2010 season that the 2011 schedule looked tough and the Lions would need to improve as a team just to maintain the four-win level they had maintained in 2009 and 2010.
Well, Columbia actually got worse and fell to 1-9 as we all know.
Fast forward to right now and we have a similar challenge: the 2013 schedule is very tough compared to 2012. And the Lions will again need to get better just to stay put at three wins which no one wants to settle for.
Here'a a look at the schedule week by week to prove my point:
Week 1: at Fordham
The Rams improved from their 1-10 season in 2011 all the way up to an impressive 6-5 record this year. One of those wins was against Columbia at Wien Stadium. Next year, the game will be in the Bronx. That seems like a net gain for Fordham and an increase in difficulty for the Lions. But the good news is that speedy RB Carlton Koonce should be graduating, (not sure about his possible 5th year status). Otherwise, I think the Rams may be stronger no matter where they play in 2013.
Week 2: Monmouth
This is not a team to be ignored. Monmouth is a program on the rise. The Hawks beat FCS playoff team Wagner and gave Lehigh a run for their money. Columbia will almost surely not be favored to win this game.
Week 3: at Princeton
The Tigers didn't quite finish out their season as strong as they started, but this is a team that surprised with their talent. Some of the best weapons on defense are graduating, but the offensive stars are young. Another very tough game, especially on the road.
Week 4: Lehigh
As difficult a game as it gets, even though it is at home. Some of the best Mountain Hawk players are graduating but the program is just too solid to fall off a cliff like Lafayette did a couple of years ago.
Week 5: Penn
Defending Ivy champs with gutsy QB Billy Ragone likely coming back for a 5th year. Oy.
Week 6: At Dartmouth
An improving team with a hot young QB in Ivy Rookie of the Year Dalyn Williams at the helm.
Week 7: At Yale
Seems like the most winnable game at this point, but it's at the Bowl and the Lions haven't won there since 1996.
Week 8: Harvard
I don't think I have to go into why this game will be a toughie after this year's 69-0 loss to the Crimson.
Week 9: at Cornell
The Big Red are almost always a much better team at home than on the road. This will be QB Jeff Mathews last game at Schoelkopf field. Tough room.
Week 10: Brown
Never an easy game, but the Lions have beaten the Bears the last two meetings here in New York.
I don't think anyone can say that the 2013 schedule isn't very challenging. And while three wins will not be a satisfactory result, let's face it: Columbia needs to improve significantly just to get back to that mark next year.
Can it be done?
Of course it can, but let's be really clear: Mangurian and crew have a lot of work to do...
Good Shift
Kudos to the folks at Bwog,net (the Columbia student blog I read regularly to get some idea of undergrad life), for taking the distingustingly indulgent "Senior Wisdom" series and using it to start asking questions of the actual adults in their midst: the faculty.
I have found the Senior Wisdom pieces to be vulgar on the surface and dangerous at the core because they always featured a student doing something other than getting a real job.