Overview
Penn has been playing an extremely difficult out of
conference schedule in recent years, and that’s made it tough to really get a
handle on how strong a team it is as it heads into full-time Ivy play.
We do know that Quaker Head Coach Al Bagnoli doesn’t make
risky decisions in the early games that could jeopardize the chances for a championship.
But this year, a few bad things have happened that Bagnoli
and co. don’t seem to have bargained for.
All-around offensive weapon Lyle Marsh surprised everyone by
not taking his 5th year of eligibility and did not join the team
this season. That deprived QB Billy Ragone of his favorite supporting
character, especially in the clutch. Plan B rusher Brandon Colavita is now out
for the rest of the season with an injury and WR Conner Scott won’t be back for
at least another two weeks or so.
I doubt anyone is panicking at the Franklin Field offices,
but no one would deny that the Quaker path to a championship repeat just got harder.
And the extreme pressure on Ragone to carry the offensive load is much heavier.
OFFENSE
Penn’s office offense has never been pretty in the Ragone era, but
the Quakers just seem to get it done. Ragone is actually having a much better
start this season than he did in 2012. He has six TD passes, just four INT’s,
(last year at this time he was pushing 10), and is completing about 60% of his
passes. He’s also been more selective about when he decides to run, a wise move
after a bad ankle injury in week nine last year. He’s still far from perfect,
but I don’t advise betting against him in the clutch.
Also don't be fooled by the one or two series where backup QB Ryan Becker comes into the game. Becker is there to give Ragone a rest and cut down on his chances for injury. He has yet to really lead this team successfully even in the short term.
The running situation at Penn is a much more serious
concern. It looks like Spencer Kulcsar is the primary ball carrier now, and you
could do worse. But Kulcsar isn’t nearly enough to get the job done. There is a
lot of excitement about DB-turned-RB Kyle Wilcox, especially after he ran for
the winning TD vs. Dartmouth two weeks ago. But Wilcox’s brief success may have
been the result of the element of surprise that is now spent for good. I
suspect every defense Penn faces for the rest of the season will dare the
Quaker rushing game to beat them if they can.
Ragone is passing the ball better so far this year, and his
primary target is WR Ryan Mitchell. But Ty Taylor is a man Ragone looks for in
the end zone, (Taylor has two TD’s compared to none for Mitchell), and Kulcsar
has been a good target coming out of the backfield even though he’s not as good
in that role as Marsh. One final receiver to really look out for is the speedy
sophomore Cameron Countryman, who I believe will be an All Ivy player next year
or in 2015. This could be the week that Penn really unleashes him and puts him
to more use.
The Penn offensive line is a bit of a mystery. They’ve
allowed fewer than two sacks per game at seven, but much of that is the result
of Ragone’s superior strength and scrambling skills. The running numbers look
pretty bad overall, but much of that is the result of the Quakers losing their
top two running backs. I’m going to call this a solid OL, but not as solid as
we’re used to seeing at Penn.
DEFENSE
The Quaker defense has stepped it up this season, especially
in the pass rush where Penn has already netted 15 sacks. Senior DB Sebastian
Jaskowski and junior LB Dan Davis are still the leaders of this defense, but
the surge in sack totals is thanks to relatively new contributors like
sophomore Austin Taps, senior Sam Chwarzysnki, and fellow senior David Park.
Penn hasn’t been able to reload with offensive skill players
in recent years, but the Quakers are keeping up that tradition nicely on D.
That said, there has to be some concern about the Penn run
defense allowing 199 yards per game. If you strip out the Villanova and William
and Mary games, the Quakers are still allowing close to 150 yards on the ground
per contest. The pass defense is not invincible as it is allowing about 230
yards per game, but that pass rush has negated a lot of threats so far this
season.
Penn’s D has also forced 10 fumbles.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The stats for placekicker Connor Loftus are a bit deceptive.
He’s only three for seven on FG tries, but most of his attempts have been from
more than 37 yards away. He has a few touchbacks, but his kickoffs usually get
into the receivers’ hands at about the five yard line.
Punters Max Krucar and Donald Panciello have started to
split the work recently, with neither looking like a real weapon or liability
right now.
Penn has two dangerous kick returners in Mason Smith and Dan
Wilk. Both average well over 20 yards a return. Smith is actually a 215 pound
DE, so I’m not sure how that’s working out, but it is.
Wilk handles most of the Quaker punt returns without much
flash.
BOTTOM LINE
Right now, Penn just doesn’t look like a team that can beat
Harvard and Brown on the road to secure another Ivy title. But the Quakers didn’t
look that good at this time last year either. The injuries are new X factor
this season, but this could be the week where some new weapons are unleashed. I’m
especially looking for Countryman to be given the chance to have a breakout
game.
Columbia may not be Penn’s toughest opponent. But this could
be the signature game that decides what kind of season overall the Quakers will
have in 2013.
10 comments:
Excellent as usual. CU should hire you to scout.
"Penn's office has never been pretty in the Ragone era..."
Then they should hire a better custodial staff. :)
Jake,
Updated information....Conner Scott is playing this weekend. Ragone gets his #1 target back. We just can't catch a break this year, or any other year for that matter.
Let's see if we start bumping WRs on the line of scrimmage and stop playing such loose coverages.
This is off topic, but I thought the folks who read your blog would like to see it.
There is an article in today's Columbia Spectator about some research that was conducted on Columbia athletes who sustain concussions. The researcher concludes that often times the athletes report that they have no further symptoms and are ready to get back on the field, when testing shows lingering symptoms. No real surprise.
Its the first Reader Comment that caught my attention, which I am copying here in its entirety:
"It is possible that something went wrong at their birth. So they had had concussions from their day 1 on earth. You gotta admit. They act the role of the cognitively impaired.
Next study should be about the cause and effect between cognitive impairment and moral impairment. There is a wealth of data at Columbia University, waiting to be collected."
It gives you a clue about what Columbia football players endure from their peers on Campus.
Messy offices have been linked to greater creativity so maybe Penn is on to something we don't know about...
Not as many negitive commenters lately. They may be all at group therapy. Much better reading!
GP
There is a certain type of troll who enjoy it when we do poorly. Even a "moral victory" such as our beating the spread last Saturday makes them hide under a rock!
There is no moral victory in football. That is the problem with columbia. As ricky bobby says, if you are not first you are last. Perhaps it is a moral victory that we field a team?
Keep fighting Lions!
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