SUPER CLIFF NOTES VERSION:
The Strengths
Columbia comes into this season with historic talent and depth at two key positions: Linebacker and Wide Receiver. There's also very strong talent by Columbia standards at offensive line and the secondary.
Weaknesses/Questions
Just like last year, the biggest question for the Lions is how will its new starting QB do. Unlike last year, it wasn't a foregone conclusion for more than a year who that QB would be. At this point sophomore Josh Bean seems to have the inside track to the job. If he can perform at a good level, Columbia can go far. If not, all bets are off.
IN DEPTH
Coaching Snapshot
2017 turned what had looked like a slow and steady improvement of the Columbia Football program under Head Coach Al Bagnoli into something of an overnight sensation. To put that sentence in context, consider that after going 2-8 in 2015 and 3-7 in 2016 I was the most optimistic outlier among the pundits by picking the Lions to finish 4th at 6-4 overall. Instead, Columbia jumped out to a 6-0 start and 8-2 overall.
But a closer look reveals that 2017 shouldn't have been so much of a surprise. A fact that non-longtime Columbia fans couldn't see was that the '15 and '16 Lions left a lot of wins on the table in those seasons. 2017 was really more of a return to the mean in that sense, with the only real surprise being how QB Anders Hill catapulted from maybe the 5th or 6th best QB in the league to its true MVP, (despite what the folks voting on the awards decided).
This is all about coaching and recruiting, which is so clearly better under Bagnoli and company that it's hard to quantify.
One new star on the staff who emerged with Hill's much-improved play was QB's coach Ricky Santos. After Santos looked like he was leaving the team this off season, (he even said his goodbyes to the players), Bagnoli moved Heaven and Earth to keep Santos at Columbia. His retention bodes well for this season and beyond.
Bagnoli is now on the verge of becoming the undisputed greatest coach in Ivy League history. All he needs to do take Columbia from the verge of winning an Ivy title to crossing the finish line with a championship.
But doing so won't be easy. The last time the Lions were this close in the mid-1990s, the program quickly reverted to mediocrity even without a change at the head coaching position. The difference was that the 1994 and 1996 Lions were mostly the result of two once-in-a-generation recruiting finds. This time, it appears the rise is built on a much more solid foundation.
For those who think rosy predictions for Columbia this year are unfounded, the fact is year four of the Bagnoli era should show the snowballing effects of his leadership even more than 2017. Three-plus Bagnoli recruiting classes are in the fold now, along with a number of seniors who have seen their skills fundamentally transformed by this staff. Mentally, the team believes in itself. The weight lifting programs and over athleticism is at a peak.And perhaps most importantly, the Columbia administration from President Lee Bollinger on down now believes it has been well-rewarded and will be rewarded even more in the future for the bold step of bringing Bagnoli out of retirement to save the football program.
None of this is to say there aren't serious challenges ahead that could trip up the Lions 2018 season. Many of them are detailed below.
Another Big Year for the QB
The pressure on Anders Hill to produce last year was intense. But at least he had eight starts and three wins under his belt as a starter coming into the season. Whether it's Bean, Dillon Davis, or someone behind curtain #3, this year's QB will be coming in much colder.
If Bean gets the nod, the good news is he faced as much high pressure situations as he possibly could have last season given his role. The fact is he never failed to score or produce a score each time he was asked to do so. His two TD runs on 4th downs against Penn, for example, came under the highest possible stakes.
WR Weapons
But it's not just about heart. Columbia's unique WR arsenal and long passing game in 2017 set the team apart from its Ivy opponents and just about the rest of organized football. The Lions need a QB with a strong arm who can deliver the bomb and stay in the pocket long enough to do it. That's a tall order for a sophomore with no starts to his name.
The good news is that in the spring game and in training camp, both Bean and Davis have shown they have the arm strength and accuracy to get the job done. The bad news is that real games are different than practices and scrimmages.
All of this is magnified by a factor of ten because of the wealth of talent at WR Columbia possesses that simply cannot be allowed to die on the vine. Juniors Josh Wainwright and Ronald Smith followed through on the high expectations for them last season and senior 3rd starter Kyle Castner far exceeded them. The backups, including speedy sophomore Emerson Kabus, juniors Christian Everett and Kaleb Pitts, and now possibly some exciting new freshmen like Mozes Mooney, Trajen Johnson, and Ernest Robinson constitute an embarrassment of riches for any QB to enjoy.
In other words, the receivers are going to be open and open regularly. If that doesn't help the new QB break in, nothing will.
O-line Upgrade?
Speaking of help, Columbia appears to be bringing back its most experienced offensive line coming into a new season in decades. I say "appears" because one of those most experienced players, 5th year senior Charlie Flores, has been M.I.A. in every practice and scrimmage I've seen. Given his injury history, I fear Flores may be out for an extended period. Luckily, three other very experienced linemen led by co-captain Markham Paukune, do seem healthy and ready. Their experience is great, but they'll have to do better in pass protection than they did last year. The Lions have been giving up way too many sacks two years running and that trend will spell disaster this year if it's not reversed.
Tight Spot
Another helping hand for most young QB's is having a steady and big TE target to throw to when all else is in doubt. But tight ends have been virtually non-existent in Columbia's passing game for years now. It appears there are plans to get junior Rory Schlageter or even freshman Jackson Heath into the mix. But it also looks like the coaches don't want to sacrifice the extra blocker for another passing target when the Lions have so many eligible receivers.
Running Help
More than a tight end, a stellar running game would be an even bigger help to the new QB. Despite the graduation of last years' top rusher Chris Schroer, there is reason to be optimistic on this score. Junior Tanner Thomas has show some flashes in the past and could have a breakout season. Freshman Dante Miller has been very impressive in camp. Junior Lynnard Rose and sophomore Marquavious Moore are also in the mix. The key will be getting the running game going earlier in the season. In each of Bagnoli's three previous seasons, the running attack hasn't really emerged until week 8 or so.
Getting Defensive
The Lions have two potential weaknesses in a younger defensive line and a big hole to fill for the graduated all-time CU great CB Cameron Roane.
At the same time, the Lions have their deepest and most talented group of linebackers probably in program history.
An wise old coach once told me linebackers are the key to everything, especially in the Ivies.
So I like our chances.
All three LB starters return this year in junior Michael Murphy, senior Sean White, and junior Jalen Williams. But from what we've seen in camp, it seems likely that sophomore Justin Woodley may have leapfrogged into a starting job. Throw in talented senior Cal Falkenhayn and some of the talented incoming freshmen, and this is a super unit. Last season, the linebackers often kept Columbia in games. This season, this crew could outright win them.
On the D-line, the key player looks like junior Arman Samouk. But senior co-captain Mike Hinton is also an impact player. Junior Daniel DeLorenzi has been excellent in his previous two seasons when he's been healthy. Sophomore Cooper Wilson and junior LinDon Harris showed flashes last year and are looking to make that step up. Sophomore Andrew Nichols should be in the mix along with one or two other sophomores and freshmen. This is a very athletic group that could be a strength if a few things shake out well and injuries bugs are avoided.
The secondary returns two great safeties in 5th year senior co-captain Landon Baty and senior Ryan Gilbert. Junior CB Ben McKeighan is back after a solid year getting targeted by teams looking to avoid Roane as much as possible. The other CB starting slot is mystery for the fans right now, but it will be a crucial role this year and could be either a major weakness or unexpected boost on game days.
Special Teams
Columbia's special teams seem like a strength once again with a veteran PK in junior Oren Milstein, a spectacular kick returner in sophomore Will Allen, a dangerous punt returner in Wainwright, and a highly recruited new punter in sophomore Drew Schmid. Columbia's coverage teams have been stellar under Bagnoli's staff and linebackers/special teams coach Justin Stovall.
Granted, Schmid has to prove he can fill the big shoes left by Columbia's last three stellar punters, and Milstein has to revert to better form after a bit of a sophomore slump. But they are both good bets to do so,
The Schedule
Columbia opens with a brutal road game against defending NEC champs Central Connecticut State. But after that, the schedule is generally favorable. The remaining non-conference games at Georgetown and at home againt Marist seem winnable and getting home games against Ivy powers Yale, Princeton, and Dartmouth is good fortune. I also like the schedule change this season that gives the Lions a home game to end the year against Cornell.
Prediction
Columbia might seem like a better bet to win the title if it had just a little more experience at QB to work with. As it is, the Lions may have a slower start than last year's 6-0 run out of the gate.
But there are other great factors in place that point to a good chance that CU will be able to repeat last year's success at 8-2 or 7-3.
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