Scouting Yale

Victor Egu will be a dominant player in the Ivies, but he's still developing

Overview

Three weeks ago, the Elis were on the top of the world, looking good at 3-0 and coming off a stunning win over Cal Poly on the road.

Oh what a difference 21 days make.

While there’s nothing to be ashamed of by losing games at Dartmouth and Penn and falling at home to mighty Fordham, it’s the way the Bulldogs have lost and the injuries they’ve sustained along the way that has the program in severe tailspin.

But it should be noted that the three losses have not been embarrassing, as the Elis certainly fared better against Dartmouth, Fordham and Penn than Columbia has so far this year.

2^nd year Head Coach Tony Reno still seems to be enjoying the general support of the Yale fan base, but if the Elis go 3-7 or 4-6 this season and lose badly to Harvard again he’ll be under massive pressure throughout the offseason.

And a loss to Columbia on Saturday would almost surely put Reno in very serious jeopardy.

Offense

Yale’s official game notes list RB Tyler Varga, QB Henry Furman, and WR Chris Smith as starters for this game.

But they said that last week and not one of them played against Penn.  And I’m hearing that it’s most likely that these players will not be ready this week either.

All of this makes scouting Yale’s offense very difficult.

But here goes:

It’s most likely that Clemson transfer Morgan Roberts will start at QB and he has had his troubles with interceptions in limited duty. Still he completes most of his passes, spreads the ball around to a lot of receivers,  and can get some points on the board.

Chris Smith, if healthy, is one of the best receivers in the Ivies and can do damage, but I doubt we’ll see him Saturday. That means WR Deon Randall is the #1 worry for the Lions defense and he has a knack for the end zone.

TE Keith Coty at one point seemed like he was a rising star, but he and the other TE’s haven’t been used as receivers this season.

Tyler Varga shredded the Columbia defense so badly last season, his expected absence this weekend has to be seen as a godsend.

But freshman Candler Rich is the real deal at RB. This could be his chance to make a real splash in Varga’s absence. I suspect he will get 30 carries or so. The concern with that will be turnovers, as the Elis are fumbling the ball away at a clip greater than two per game.

The Yale offensive line is probably the best unit on the team. It’s only allowed five sacks all season and has plowed open holes for all the running backs. This is exactly a model for Columbia to follow when it comes to rebuilding its O-line.

Just one more thought about playing offense at Yale. The best Yale teams always work to the quirks of the Yale Bowl home field. The slow grass field and swirling winds of the stadium lend themselves to a tough, grind it out, running attack.

Coach Reno is running out of horses right now to do anything other than use what he has. But if the generall good job Columbia had been doing against the run before last week does not return this Saturday, Reno will not hesitate to run the rock 50-60 times. Watch out for that. Remember, he was done to no QB's and only had Varga and another RB ready to go in last years game at CU. The result was Reno put Varga in at QB and he ran the wildcat the whole game. This is not a guy who's afraid to milk something until it doesn't work.

Defense

This may be the weakest Yale defense we’ve seen in many years. I thought that was true of last year’s Eli D, but this year’s group is worse.

Up front, senior DE and captain Beau Palin is leading a very green bunch of defensive linemen who haven’t really put pressure on anyone this season. Freshman Copache Tyler looks like he has potential at DT and senior Dylan Drake is okay, but the strength of the Yale D comes from a few linebackers and DB’s who are doing the heavy lifting a few yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

Junior Will Vaughn and freshman sensation Victor Egu are the stars at linebacker. Egu is really standing out, (remember, he’s the famous Cal decommit), but he can’t do all the heavy lifting himself.

Sophomore strong safety Cole Champion is the star of the secondary, but the Elis are giving up a lot of yards through the air.

A big red flag for the Yale faithful has to be the 28 points the defense gave up against that hobbled Penn team last week. True, Bulldog turnovers gave the Quakers very short fields a few times in the game, but 28 points is more than Columbia allowed against a Penn team that had Billy Ragone in at QB for most of the game. He was out entirely against Yale.

Special Teams

Junior Kyle Cazzetta is a star as he handles the kicking and punting duties. He’s seven of 10 on FG’s and is perfect from short range. But he has missed three PAT’s, so that can be a concern. He’s punting extremely well with a 39 yard per punt average.

The Yale return teams aren’t making too much noise, especially with Chris Smith out of the picture on kickoff returns. BUT… freshman Robert Clemons is getting better and does have a 64 yard return this year. Deon Randall is doing the punt returning with no fanfare so far.

The Yale kick coverage teams are among the best in the Ivies.