Columbia Football 2013

Brett Nottingham seems like the real deal



Overview: Something Old, Something New

College football is fraught with many unique challenges, especially the constant problem of replacing graduating players, (and in the Ivy League, the players really DO GRADUATE as opposed to just running out of eligibility).

But at least with the turnover, college coaches don’t have to worry about the added pressure of the fans getting angry when they replace long-time starters at key positions. Everyone knows these players are around for just a few years no matter what.

So as Columbia fans say goodbye to a great three-and-a-half year starter and team leader in QB Sean Brackett, there’s no holding back on the excitement to greet his apparent replacement.

That would be Brett Nottingham, the Stanford man who stunned the Ivy football world in December by deciding to transfer to Columbia when just one year ago he was the apparent replacement for Andrew Luck.

Nottingham is quite decidedly the “something new” for Lions football, the Ivies, and all of FCS football this year. Head Coach Pete Mangurian and his staff deserve a lot of credit for sealing the deal on his transfer.

That’s because unlike just about every other one-time top HS QB prospect, Nottingham is not making the decision to come to the FCS because of an injury or because of some kind of serious personal issue. He’s coming to Columbia because he wants to focus more on academics and get a chance to dominate his new league at his position. And thanks to two “old things,” he’ll have a great chance to do just that.  

The old things are senior RB Marcorus Garrett, coming off the most impressive rushing season for a Columbia Lion in more than a decade, and an incredibly talented and deep wide receiving corps led by playmakers like Connor Nelligan and Hamilton Garner.

But the other “old thing” could drag everything down, and that’s the Lion offensive line.

If the O-line doesn’t improve at least on pass protection, Columbia’s numerous skill position players won’t get the chance to shine or score.

Success has a million fathers and failure is an orphan, but there are a million possible reasons for why the O-line didn’t get it done in 2012. Whatever the causes, something new has to happen here for the Lions to win in 2013.

There’s no doubt something new is coming to the defense, a new defensive coordinator guarantees that. So does the graduation on Columbia’s best overall defensive player in Josh Martin, now a proud member of the Kansas City Chiefs’ 53-man roster.

The Lions have serious questions at linebacker and secondary as well, meaning something or somebody new will have to come in this season to keep the defense from falling back on its overall progress in 2012.

But at least a few old things will help. D-lineman Seyi Adebayo, an All Ivy contender who flies under the radar after missing almost all of 2012 to injury, returns at full strength. So does super middle linebacker Zach Olinger and some other rising stars up front like Niko Padilla and Chad Washington.

And then there's the final new thing that could cloud any progress Columbia makes this season. That would be the schedule, which is significantly tougher this season. No matter how much better the Lions get, it's possible nine out 10 of their opponents may improve more. 

In any battle there are “known unknowns and unknown unknowns.” In 2013, Columbia needs to be able to fix the problems it knows it has, anticipate the chances of surprise challenges, and believe that Nottingham can vault this team well beyond everyone else’s expectations.

Hamilton Garner could be Nottingham's #1 target

OFFENSE

Columbia’s offense in 2012 had a multi-talented QB, a near record-setting RB and a massive upgrade in talent and production at WR.

So why did the team barely score more than 14 points a game?

The weak play of the offensive line was the biggest culprit, but so was Brackett’s low completion percentage… especially on 3^rd down.

Here’s where I expect things to improve decidedly this season, even if the O-line doesn’t get all that much better. Nottingham’s completion percentage will be better thanks to his style of play and the fact that he isn’t nursing the kinds of injuries Brackett was during his final three seasons on Morningside Heights. And Nottingham isn’t going to be looking to run anywhere near as often as Brackett did, forcing him to hone his passing skills when they count.

Am I super-high on Nottingham? You bet. I’m not just evaluating him on what I see on paper. Numerous sources from inside and outside the Stanford program tell me this young man is the real deal. I know that puts a lot of added pressure on him, but he’s coming from a top 10, Rose Bowl-winning program like Stanford, I think he can take it.

Nottingham’s arrival, plus the addition of 6-6 freshman talent Kelly Hilinski, mean the also very talented sophomore Trevor McDonagh may fall to third on the depth chart this season. Yes, Columbia suddenly has depth at the QB position as well. And that’s another good reason to be optimistic about getting more points on the board in 2013.

There's also a lot of justified excitement about the running game.

Marcorus Garrett will make a run at 1,000 yards and beyond 


That's because of senior RB Marcorus Garrett, who finally got a chance to put in a full season last year and finished with Columbia's second best all-time single season rushing record with 957 yards. Garrett actually led all Ivy rushers in total net yards and showed a real toughness throughout the season. That continued this offseason when he out-lifted all his teammates in the spring weightlifting program. Garrett is primed to be a QB like Nottingham’s best friend on the field this fall; a reliable running back.

The relative depth at RB is not as settled as it seems to be at QB and certainly is at WR. But there is more quality depth than this Lion program is used to. Sophomore Cameron Molina and freshman Alan Watson will most likely be the top backups and I expect more of a contribution this year from junior FB Steven Silvio, although mostly as a out of the backfield receiver. The key is to keep Garrett healthy and keep defenses from being able to key on him too much now that Brackett and his potential to run are gone. An injury to Garrett downgrades Columbia's season, perhaps significantly so.

The real astounding depth for the Lions, by any team's standard, is at the wide receiver position.

Two years ago at this time, the cupboard was extremely bare for CU. It was so bad that two or three of the top five guys on the WR depth chart had been switched over from other positions to fill the need.

Fast forward to 2013 and Columbia has an extremely rare embarrassment of riches, combining varied talent and depth. The chief receiver will remain junior Connor Nelligan, coming off a 62 reception, 600-plus yard season as sophomore in 2012. He wasn't just good, he was tough, grabbing lots of tough catches and fighting for extra yards game after game. 

Nelligan is joined by at least three other starter caliber, and maybe even All Ivy caliber receivers.

The most explosive could be sophomore Isaiah Gross, who only got into two full games last season but made a maximum impression with his ability to get open deep and make circus catches.

When Gross went down, sophomore Chris Connors stepped up and became the team's #2 receiver behind Nelligan. Connors also displayed a knack for making circus catches with his best performance coming against Cornell with 84 yards and two TD's.

UT San Antonio transfer Jake Wanamaker fought injuries most of last season, but he still made an impact and the coaches are high on him this fall for his junior year.

Senior Louis DiNovo had the best catch and run for a TD of any Lion last year and he stands as the best example of how much stronger Columbia is at this position. Because if a player like DiNovo isn't a starter, you get an idea of how talented the rest of the crew is. Junior Ryan Flannery is another major asset coming off the bench. Fellow junior Dan Slivka can sneak up on you too.

What can we say about the freshmen receivers? I'm not hearing any specific names, but the buzz out of training camp was that the four frosh are generally very good and no one should be surprised if one of them cracks the two-deep.

But wait... there's more!

Senior Tight End Hamilton Garner is not technically a WR, but don't be surprised if he ends up with the most catches for the Lions this season. Garner is looking for an upgrade on his 2012 season after making All Ivy in 2011, but in all fairness he has little from last year to be ashamed of. He's backed up by sophomore Nick Durham, who is more of an H-back, but got it done on a couple of occasions last year. There's some very good potential depth at TE from the receiving perspective with 6-6 freshman Connor Spears gaining some serious attention. And 6-4 junior Garrett DeMuth could get some time after missing all of 2012 with an injury.

Columbia certainly has the talent at QB and WR/TE to make 2013 an aerial circus at Wien Stadium.

And so that brings us to the much-maligned offensive line. After giving up a shocking 40 sacks last season, there's no getting around the fact that the front five was the weakest link of 2012. But there's also a decent reason for optimism in that you have to expect this unit to improve with the added time and strength its built up over the last 10 months.

The starters all return, led by senior RT/RG Jimmy Yukevich, and junior C Ryan Thomas. Three sophomores who became regular starters as freshman last year, Keith Ramkjak and Eric Kuklinski, and Billy Lawrence will all have to prove they've matured and improved.

The most compelling freshman is Kendall Pace from Maryland. Pace was basically the first player Mangurian and his staff nailed down for this recruiting class and he looks ready to play. He's another guy I wouldn't be surprised to see on the field very soon even though he's a frosh.

The player weights have not yet been updated on the official roster page, but I think it's a lock that Columbia will again field the league's lightest offensive line in 2013. Once again, I want to clarify that I really want this leaner and meaner strategy to work... both because I want CU to win and I support the healthy idea of cutting down on fat at any age. But it's also important to note that this strategy has not worked... yet. Perhaps last season's ineffective O-line play was not the direct result of the unit's lighter average weight. But it sure doesn't seem like it helped. 

And it's crucial that the offensive line improves this season, or all the depth and talent the Lions have at every other offensive position will be somewhat wasted.

The O-line needs to step up to help Garrett get a 1,000 yard season, cut down the sack total from 40 to under 30, and get the 3rd down conversion percentage from 31% to somewhere at least near 37%.

Tall order? Maybe, but I'd say the one football position where players are most likely to really improve with age is offensive lineman. And that's just one reason why going into the 2013 season, the offense looks like the stronger of the two units on this football team.

Zach Olinger stands tall for the Lion D

DEFENSE

More serious questions abound on the defensive side of the ball because of some key losses.

Those losses start at the top with the departure of Defensive Coordinator Kevin Lempa, who had the Lions going in the right direction But Lempa had a chance to return home to Boston and coach at BC, and he took it.

Chris Rippon is the new DC, and he comes in with a lot of experience at some of the highest levels of college football... but only with mixed results. He's on the spot this year to prove himself as is Mangurian for hiring him.

On the field, the losses are also significant starting with DL Josh Martin, but don't underestimate the significance of losing LB's Mike Waller and Ryan Murphy even though they aren't currently in the NFL.

In fact, the D-line should have an easier time coping with graduation losses thanks to the return of 5th year senior Seyi Adebayo. Adebayo is a legitimate All Ivy candidate who seems even stronger than he was before he tore his ACL in week one last year.

He'll be joined up front by another legitimate All Ivy contender in sophomore DT Niko Padilla. Padilla had a great rookie campaign in 2012 and has improved in the offseason.

Another still-improving player is senior DT Wells Childress, who came into camp looking bigger and playing a lot stronger. And coming back from an injury-plagued 2012 is fellow senior Nick Melka, who impressed as a soph in 2011.

One of the X-factors will be junior DE Chad Washington, a player who I believe has all the tools to be another real All Ivy candidate. But after his legal troubles this offseason, I'm still not 100% sure he will be allowed to play all 10 games. But I am leaning in favor of expecting him to play all year.

Even without the legal drama, Washington would be an X-factor in 2013. He's off the radar for just about everyone else, but those of us who have watched him carefully know he should be an impact player. He and Adebayo could resemble the two jaws of a vise for opposing QB's this fall.

Another developing DE I'm very high on is sophomore Toba Akinyele, who made a nice impact toward the end of last season. This is another guy who is off the radar even for most CU fans, but he could make a big statement this fall.

The most promising looking freshmen are big William Carson, who at 6-3, 295 lbs. could be the answer along with Padilla to Columbia's long-running issues at defensive tackle.  Melka's younger brother Charles Melka also has the tools to contribute soon at DE.

But in general, the front line doesn't seem to have the depth it needs to have to stay powerful all season long. That problem would be alleviated if Washington plays and more of the backups get into the mix.

The linebackers are led by Columbia's best overall defensive player in senior Zach Olinger, but Olinger's supporting cast remains one of the biggest question marks for 2013.

Senior Brian East and junors Vinny Pugliese and Ray Pesanello seem to be the front runners for the two open spots and they've all played well in the past. But the Lions look generally vulnerable defending the edges right now and that's something that could be painfully obvious in week one when they take on Fordham RB Carlton Koonce who likes to attacks defenses down the sidelines.

Thus, we may get some freshmen representation at this position and frosh Tyler Kwiatkowski and Gianmarco Rea appear to be the most highly regarded. Fellow frosh Parker Tobia from Bergen Catholic may also get into the mix because of his abilities to defend the edges.

There are also plenty of questions about the secondary, especially with the pre-mature loss of Mike DiTommaso at safety.

But sophomore Travis Reim is a rising star at corner, and senior Marquel Carter is serious talent at safety. I also like junior Malcom Thaxton at the other safety position.

But the secondary is absolutely a huge question mark, especially since this is a unit Lempa personally coached in 2012. Sophomores like Matt Cahal, Kevin McCarthy and Josh Foster may need to really step up, along with senior Jeremy Mingo. 

We'll probably see more freshmen get a look with this group than the others, and that could get dicey. But I do like the potential of guys like Brock Kenyon, Lorenzo Bradford and Jared Katz. 

Is this defense weak enough to lose sleep over? With players like Adebayo and Olinger in there, Columbia shouldn't be a push over on D. But there are some really big questions here to answer and shoes to fill. Columbia's first two opponents seem to have a lot of offensive firepower, so we'll get some of those answers fairly quickly.

Luke Eddy lets one fly


SPECIAL TEAMS

Columbia is blessed with two of the best in the league with Luke Eddy at kicker and Paul Delaney at punter. They're both very serious All Ivy candidates and they're both seniors.

The returning game lost a solid performer in Alec Fisher, who has transferred to USC. But Reim is back to build on his promising 2012 work returning punts and kicks, and fellow sophomore Trevor Bell is back after looking good on kick returns.

But we're also likely to see some new freshmen faces as returners this year as a number of the frosh were returners in high school. Watson, and Ben Kaplan may get the first cracks at it.

Columbia's kick and punt coverage was stellar last year. Only Princeton's Anthony Gaffney hurt them with the KO return for a TD on the opening play of the game. That was the one blemish on an otherwise good strength.

In general, special teams should be an area where the Lions can outshine their opponents. Eddy has the strongest leg for FG's, Delaney is one tough dude, and Reim is a threat to break returns. Watch for a noticeable upgrade from an already decent 2012 level from this group.

Columbia's first stop for 2013: Jack Coffey Field in the Bronx



BREAKING DOWN THE SCHEDULE 

Now to the one item that worries more than the LB's, DB's and OL put together: Columbia's murderous 2013 schedule.

Last year's weakest opponent, Marist, is gone in favor of significant threat Monmouth. Fordham is much improved, and Lehigh is ranked ahead of both of them.

The Ivy schedule forces the Lions to play the toughest teams at home, where the home field advantage will be mitigated by their skill, and most of the weaker Ivy teams on the road, where the home field advantage could more than level the field against CU.

Penn, Harvard and Brown will all be tough to beat at Wien Stadium. Yale and Cornell should be the weakest rivals, but the Big Red will be celebrating super QB Jeff Mathews' final home game and the Elis will be looking for revenge at the Yale Bowl after last year's tough loss to the Light Blue.

Dartmouth seems to be on the rise and Memorial Field has become a house of horrors for Columbia lately. Princeton seems like a winnable road game, but not if the Tigers play like they did in early 2012.

Oh, and did I mention that the Lions have not won ANY road games since 2009? CU's losing streak on the road is now at 12 games.

I got a number of things about last year wrong, but if you look back at my 2012 team preview and analysis, I correctly predicted Columbia would get three wins last season.

This year I'm faced with needing to figure out if the team's definite offseason improvement is greater than the increased difficulty in schedule.

It's a tough call, but this seems like a 4-6 season with an outside chance at 5-5. I like our chances to beat Monmouth, Princeton, Yale and Cornell. Penn looks vulnerable too and I may be overestimating Fordham. So, on my most optimistic, but still not crazy, day I could say the Lions could post a 6-4 record.

The important point to make is that the team should be better, thanks mostly to what could be a super-charged offense. And that will make 2013 an exciting season to watch no matter what.