Robin Harris always pushes the parity myth, that's her job
Preamble
While it’s never easy to predict the order of finish in Ivy
League football, this year seems harder than most.
That’s because the traditional powers atop the league,
namely Penn and Harvard, have serious question marks that you don’t usually see
both of those teams facing in the same season.
Throw in some teams who seem to be on the rise, but haven’t
succeeded enough to prove it, marinate with some potentially program-changing
transfers, and stir in a few returning players who missed 2012 with injuries
and you’ve got a recipe for a very confusing outlook for 2013.
Theme of the Season
It’s been five years now since a team not named Penn or
Harvard got even a piece of the Ivy title. That’s too long for a league that
desperately needs to increase fan interest at all eight schools.
While I wouldn’t want the league administrators to do
anything officious to actually FORCE parity onto the Ivies, the forced mantra
of “the Ivies really are a football league with a lot of parity” that we hear
year after year is getting sickening.
The truth is, Penn and Harvard are dominating the league too
much and fans are getting bored.
The pathetically weak attendance at Franklin Field for the
de facto Ivy championship game between the Quakers and the Crimson last season
makes that clear.
The Ivies desperately need a new champion this season, and
there’s a good chance we could get one.
But the chances still don’t look good enough to me to bet on
it.
Predicted Order of Finish
1.
Harvard
2.
Penn
3.
Dartmouth
4.
Brown
5.
Columbia
6.
Princeton
7.
Yale
8.
Cornell
Zach Boden returns at RB for Harvard, and he needs to bring it
HARVARD
For the second year in a row, I’m choosing the Crimson to
win the league. But this will be a very different-looking squad than last year’s
All Ivy laden crew that somehow found a way not to win the championship.
This year’s Crimson will be hungrier, and mindful of what
can happen to them if they get too confident as they did in the Princeton and
after trouncing Columbia in historic fashion only to lay an egg vs. Penn the
following week.
I expect Head Coach Tim Murphy, the best recruiter in the
Ivies, to get his team mentally ready for better results this season.
On the field, I’m high on defensive stars like Zach Hodges
and Nnamdi Obukwelu up front. Josh Boyd is a star at linebacker and the
starting secondary from most of last season returns.
The big questions for the Crimson come on offense. Harvard
will have to find a new starter this season, but that was true last season too
and Colton Chapple ended up as the league’s offensive MVP. And this is a
program that has been simply reloading at QB for more than a decade now. My
guess is that Michael Pruneau will eventually get the job and dazzle at the
position.
A slightly less automatic positive is the running back
situation. Zach Boden is back after missing last year, but he was spectacular
in limited duty as a frosh in 2011. He’s got the tools, but being a team’s
premiere RB takes a physical and mental toll, and no one in this league can
ever be expected to rush for 1,000 yards.
The wide receivers Ricky Zorn and Andrew Berg are very solid
if not spectacular. TE Cameron Brate gets a huge amount of raves from all the
pundits, but I think Columbia’s Hamilton
Garner may be a better receiving threat. But regardless of all that, I
still expect the Crimson passing game to be very good. Same goes for the
offensive line.
Does this Harvard team look as good as it did a year ago?
No, but this is a program that’s so far ahead of most of the competition it
doesn’t really matter.
And the biggest plus for the Crimson this time around is the
schedule. The key games against Penn and Brown are at home, and that’s a major
plus.
So why should those of us dying to see someone other than
Harvard or Penn win the title take heart?
Because the Crimson finished last season on a weak note and just
because all the new starters are super-talented, it doesn’t mean they will all
work together well. Yes, Harvard gets Brown at home in week two… but that’s
awfully early to be testing a new QB, newish RB, and somewhat new O-line.
So while I see a good chance for Harvard to fall down to
Earth a little, the odds are still in Coach Murphy’s favor.
Billy Ragone is going for his fourth Ivy title
PENN
Just win, baby!
That should have been Penn’s official motto last season as
the Quakers strung together a bunch of close wins to somehow grab the Ivy title
away from what looked like a much more talented and deep Harvard team.
But with gutty, if not pretty, leader like QB Bill Ragone,
Penn played its best football when it counted… something Columbia found out the
hard way in the Quakers come from behind 24-20 win over the Lions at Franklin
Field.
Ragone returns this year for a 5th year, as does
RB Brandon Colavita and two very experienced and solid WR’s in Conner Scott and
Ryan Mitchell.
But honestly, this is not a very explosive offense. We’re
not talking about the point-scoring machines that Head Coach Al Bagnoli had on
his hands in the early 2000’s. Ragone is
too inconsistent for that, even though he’ll get a rest from time to time when pocket
passing 5th year senior QB Ryan Becker gets 3-4 series per game.
Ragone’s bad ankle injury that kept him off the field for months
this offseason is also a concern, as is the inconsistency of the Penn running
game.
The defense loses Brandon Copeland, a defensive lineman who
looks like he’s going to make the Baltimore Ravens roster this week. But this
is Penn, even with the lack of great experience up front, you just can’t expect
the Quaker D-line to be weak.
The linebackers and defensive backs look a lot more like
what we expect from the Quakers. LB Daniel Davis may be the best in the league
and DB Sebastian Jaskowski anchors that secondary.
The challenges Penn really face this season have to do with
the schedule, Ragone’s durability, and strength of the running game without the
suddenly lost RB Lyle Marsh for academic concerns.
Marsh was the best back on this team, not only for his sheer
talent, but because he perfectly complimented Ragone. It was Marsh that Ragone
would look to as a receiver in key situations, (again, a lesson Columbia sorely
learned last year), and it was Marsh’s style of play that made him most
dangerous in this offense. He will be sorely missed.
Having to play a revenge-minded Harvard team in Harvard
Stadium in November along with Brown on the road too makes the schedule a major
concern.
And just how much will Ragone have in the tank physically?
He’s been banged up so many times since 2009, it’s hard to believe he can
maintain his best level of play.
And yet… this is still a talented team and since you can’t
assume Ragone will sustain a major injury, I still like Penn’s chances in most
games.
Dalyn Williams seems like MVP material
DARTMOUTH
The Big Green had an extremely promising 2012 season, both
because they increased their win total and because they found a major new star
at QB.
Count me in among the believers when it comes to Ivy Rookie
of the Year Dalyn Williams and his chances to be a Bushnell Cup level player as
soon as this season.
You also have to like Dartmouth’s big RB Dominic Pierre, who
should have a better shot of staying healthy this season with Williams taking
more of the running load.
I like the WR’s, especially the great Ryan McManus and the O-line
is good enough.
The linebackers and defensive backs are stellar. LB’s
Michael Runger and Bronson Green make for a strong tandem while Garrett Waggoner is a major force at safety and was the leading tackler for Dartmouth against Columbia last year. Stephen Dazzo
and Vernon Harris are also All Ivy caliber DB’s.
That leaves the defensive line, which figures to be the Achilles
heel for the Green this fall. You’d be hard-pressed to find an Ivy champ from
the last 20 years that didn’t have a very strong D-line.
When the chips are down, I don’t know if Dartmouth will have
what it takes to stop opponents on 3rd and 1, or rush the passer
well enough on 3rd and 10.
But the emergence of a surprise star or two on that line
would change everything.
The other factor that worries me is the schedule. The week
three game at Penn will again be a must-win, and the Green also has to travel
to Harvard and Brown.
That’s a triple whammy for a team that has to travel longer
than any squad in the league in the first place.
With Williams entering his sophomore campaign, perhaps it is
safer to say that Dartmouth is just a year away.
Michael Yules will get double-teamed all year
BROWN
Brown had another solid season in 2012, going 7-3 and 4-3 in
the Ivies. And while I may be picking them for fourth, I would not be shocked
to see the Bears hoisting the Ivy championship trophy after the season finale
at Columbia on November 23rd.
That’s because the Bears have probably the most underrated
QB in the Ivies in Patrick Donnelly who happens to be getting his top two
receivers from 2012 back for this fall. They would be Tellef Lundevall and Jordan
Evans. The running attack, as usual for Brown, is a question mark.
Speedy John Spooney returns to the team after a year
concentrating on running track is the top back. But I’m not handing him any All
Ivy votes yet.
The offensive line is almost completely new and that’s a
concern. Head Coach Phil Estes has been very good at reloading the O-line in
recent years, but this is not something that you can take for granted.
You CAN take for granted that Michael Yules will be a factor
up front for the Bear defense. I thought he was good enough to be an All Ivy 1st
Teamer last year, even though he had to settle for 2nd team honors.
Losing AJ Cruz in the secondary will hurt and the
linebacking corps is solid if not particularly deep.
If the Brown season were solely a question of how well
Donnelly and his receivers produce, I’d pick this team for 2nd or
even 1st. But there are too many questions to rank this team that
high despite my strong admiration for Estes.
Caraun Reid has the eye, and the strength, of the Tiger
Caraun Reid has the eye, and the strength, of the Tiger
PRINCETON
Princeton looked like a serious title contender for much of
the season, until a late game collapse against Penn and a bad final week
against Dartmouth seemed to expose the Cinderella aspects of this team’s 2012
campaign.
Yes, I am a doubter when it comes to the Tigers and that’s
even though my doubts about them last season were proven very wrong.
What I don’t deny is that Princeton had a super defense last
year, and that returning DT Caraun Reid is probably the best player in the
Ivies this year.
But without 2013 grads like NFL-signee Andrew Starks and NFL
draftee Mike Catapano, the Princeton defense is not likely to be as strong. I
don’t love the returning D-linemen and linebackers as a whole, but I do think
the secondary is going to be solid with the all-world sophomore corner Anthony
Gaffney and Phil Bhaya.
The offense is the real mystery here. Head Coach Bob Surace
will apparently use a ton of QB’s and RB’s in a group effort. Conner Michelsen
and Quinn Epperly shared the duties last year and did pretty well… until the
Penn game and things unraveled. I think
there’s a good chance former Vanderbilt commit Chad Kanoff will be the starter
before long and kill off the QB by committee system.
Meanwhile, Surace seems to have talent in droves at running
back. I like Will Power and Di Andre Atwater working together to share the
load, (although there’s something hinky going on with Atwater as Coach Surace
seems to need to be reminded that he’s still on the team from time to time.
Surace NEVER mentions Atwater unless someone asks him about his status).
Princeton has a very good WR in Roman Wilson, but I’m not
getting excited about the Tiger receivers until I see who plays QB. Michelsen
and Epperly had flashes last season, but neither impressed me as a passer all
that much.
The offensive line, however, is very strong and experienced.
Clearly the O-line last year made everyone else look better.
Can Princeton surprise me and most everyone else and make a
serious run for the titie? If the defense really shines and they get a real
weapon at QB, I’d say yes. But that’s a little too much to expect.
Tyler Varga is still 90% of this team
YALE
Tyler Varga was the best and most exciting running back in the Ivies last year, and there's little doubt the Elis would have gone 0-10 in 2012 without him.
As it is, Yale was still a dismal 2-8 with a lot of holes in key positions that leave the program with too much to fix for 2013 to be a contending year.
Clearly, the Elis will get better at QB unless the injury bug blows the corps like it did last year. Clemson transfer Morgan Roberts may improve Yale's fortunes in a hurry at this position.
The wide receiver corps is deep with very talented players like the returning Chris Smith, (if he recovers from a nagging hamstring injury), and Cameron Sandquist leading the way. But it's hard to get too excited about all the talent at receiver before we know what the QB's can do.
The offensive line did a good enough job blocking for Varga, and the Elis gave up very few sacks last season. So this is a real strength on this team.
Defense was a disaster for Yale last year, especially against the pass. Now the Bulldogs have to deal with massive inexperience up and down the D after almost all the starters graduated. I do like Beau Palin a lot at DE and LB Cole Champion was a revelation at DB.
Of course, most of the chatter around the Yale program this winter and summer was about incoming freshmen Vincent Egu. Egu was committed to Cal, but switched to the Elis and then decided to forego a PG year to play this fall. Egu is slated to play at DE or OLB and should play early.
But with a huge question mark at QB and so many new faces on defense, this looks like another rough year in New Haven.
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Coach Archer only smiles when he isn't looking at his defense
CORNELL
The Big Red return the super-exciting and talented Jeff Mathews at QB, and that should be worth the price of season tickets all by itself.
But what else does super-young new Head Coach David Archer have in the cupboard for the fall?
Sadly for Cornell fans, I don't see much.
I DO like RB Luke Hagy as a generally menacing offensive weapon, (think Roger Craig in Ivy shoes). He may run the ball a lot more early in the season as Archer tries to find more balance in the offense, but when that doesn't work out, I expect he'll get big yards running and receiving this season.
I'm also joining the chorus of experts who rightfully aren't too worried about the big number of graduating WR starters in Ithaca, simply because I think Mathews made all of them better and he'll do the same with their replacements.
But this Cornell defense still seems like a mess. The best thing it has going for it is the general change in coaching staff which should lead to some improvement, but not much. Linebacker Taylor Betros and Brett Bueler are decent.
Last year, I thought Cornell could make a run at the title based on offense alone. Boy was I wrong. By the time Columbia played the Big Red in week nine it was painfully obvious that a good pass rush on Mathews was more than enough to get by.
And I'm just not convinced about Archer's abilities to be a great head coach right out of the gate.
Cornell really looks like a last place team with a first place QB.
Ask longtime Columbia fans how that feels, because they've experienced that a couple of times over the years.
